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Windows 8 and its dual interfaces represent a huge gamble, and some think it will backfire....
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Saturday, July 28, 2012, 5:21 PM ETWindows 8 and its dual interfaces represent a huge gamble, and some think it will backfire. Bronte Capital, worried the Metro UI won't function well with a keyboard and mouse: "This will wind up with a lower corporate take up rate than Vista." Valve CEO Gabe Newell, worried about Microsoft's (MSFT) proprietary approach: "Windows 8 is a catastrophe for everyone in the PC space." Matt Rosoff: "Windows 8 is for touch screens. Period." Developer Jeff Atwood is "cautiously optimistic." (also: I, II, III)
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The first MSFT release of a major "car model change" usually goes poorly. However, perhaps it's a necessary, painful step toward a Kinect-centric Windows 9 in which the physical mouse is replaced by a "virtual mouse" of hand gestures.
To this business developer,Metro doesn't make business sense, at least in the utility presently provided. But there could be some serious business value to a kinect-employing Windows 9, such as username/passwords being replaced by Kinect simply looking at you to see if it is you.
Also, coding against a single model for multiple platforms has tremendous long term appeal. But in the short-run, I'm not feeling much attention paid to existing .NET assets. LOB programmers aren't just going to leap from their existing assets to a new model in a single bound. We'll be flipping burgers if we do.
Finally, a tablet with a real, full operating system that can run all the same applications I run on my desktop (hardware limitations notwithstanding), and take advantage of touch-friendly apps that are developed as such.
Developers don't have to change, that's the whole point. MS can leverage its existing 80+% market share while still finally getting into the tablet space in earnest.
In particular, I'm very much looking forward to the MS Surface Pro. A real OS, real appLICATIONs, and real standard ports (USB 3.0 even!) -- in short, a real computer in a tablet form factor.
It might not get Angry Birds right away, but if you're looking to get actual real work done, who cares?
Tell that to Silverlight developers.
As always, Microsoft will introduce new technologies, and drop ones they no longer consider to be worth supporting.
Revenues for .NET tooling (e.g. Visual Studio) are very small compared to Windows revenues. WHile I've never heard Microsoft come out and say this, I think the whole .NET tooling is driven by the revenues generated by more Windows copies in the enterprise. How many folks do you know that use Visual Studio in the enterprise? How many use Windows (and which comes with the .NET framework).
IMO, Visual Studio and the .NET framework provide the best productivity experience in the enterprise. Microsoft makes very little off that directly, but profits greatly as .NET framework LOB apps get deployed for use by enterprise end-user.
It's not what Microsoft has said, it's what they haven't said or emphasized/hyped.
All five or six of them? :)
And Apple has unfortunately tried to convince people that you can't have both in one -- I think the Surface Pro will convince people otherwise.
It comes out January, supposedly, so we'll see. :)
In addition, when I do get the old Wii out of it's box, I dont have to wear the silly strap anymore coz my 50" screen is Gorilla Glass.
Long MSFT, Long NOK, LONG HIMX......
I think your comments sum up my feelings exactly. Microsoft is on the right path, I think Windows 8.5 or 9 will be a killer product. And the whole gesture thing (mouse to the corner etc.) certainly appears to have been created with the ultimate goal of replacing mouse movements with hand gestures.
But Microsoft seem to have completely screwed up the current release of Windows by ignoring their bread and butter business users. Windows has always succeeded by making inroads first into the workplace, and then into the home. But unless a lot has changed for the final release, it will have almost no traction into the business world.
Who decided that this was a good idea?
Consumers HATE learning curves.
Ballmer sucks.
While Apple is steadily dumbing down Mac OS to be more like an iPad, Microsoft is letting users have it both ways if they want it.
http://bit.ly/ys9S72
Windows 8 will be as successful as Microsoft Bob.
Just sayin. :)
Personally, I'm tired of waiting for good versions of real applications to come out for iOS, I'd much rather have a tablet that can run them out of the box.
And a Surface tablet lets me buy one device that serves as a tablet and a laptop, instead of, for example, having to buy both and iPad and a Macbook Air.
Microsoft is adding value -- Apple is adding shiny designs. :)
Again, that's Mac hardware. Try plugging in your shiny new gadget that wasn't made by Apple -- doh! I guess you have to wait 6-12 months for the manufacturer to bother making drivers for 15% of the market...again.... :)
I'm sorry guys, but it looks like history will repeat itself: open and flexible will win over closed and shiny, especially for productive users.
And for the record: I love my iPhone and iPad, but I recognize that they have very serious limitations when it comes to productivity and flexibility. When devices come out that don't have those limitations, I will buy those. I will not reinvent my work style, my business, or my life just so they revolve entirely around Apple's toys.
P.S. Apple is now a slightly younger corporate Microsoft, absent Steve Jobs. He was the only perpetual entrepreneur in that entire outfit, and they, too, are now extremely vulnerable to all the delays and misjudgments engendered by "corporate-itis."
I believe NOK will benefit the most ( most upside) at current valuations.
I am long NOK, and MSFT
Nokia is as well known in America as Five Guys is in Mozambique.
Part of Apple and Samsung's overwhelming success is their ubiquitous advertising in the U.S.
I'm long Batman and Robin, too
Lahiem