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The cult of equity is dying, but the "cult of inflation" has only just begun, writes Bill Gross,...
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Tuesday, July 31, 2012, 11:14 AM ETThe cult of equity is dying, but the "cult of inflation" has only just begun, writes Bill Gross, expecting not just a few years, but decades of an "inflationary solution" to the issues developed economies face. Obviously not great for the holder of long-term bonds, inflation won't be great for stocks either. Jeremy Siegel's 6.6% long-term real return from equities in the 20th century may have been an "historical freak."
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Yes, we'll continue to have some inflation to melt away debt, but, equities, in the end, are proxies for the price of everything, and, as inflation raises revenues and profits, alike, so share prices will ultimately follow. Equities will surely be better than any fixed-rate debt issues.
No, it's not different this time.
Perhaps gold and silver will regain their historical place in this protracted scenario of inflation and delevering? Is this what most experts identify as stagflation or will worsening conditions eventually lead us to economic depression worse than what our grandparents endured? Who's got the right formula to sail through this nasty situation successfully, with minimal attrition and without resorting to more war?
On July 1st 2009, Bill Gross said low asset returns for the coming years are the “new normal”. Eighteen months after Bill Gross’ super genius prediction, the S&P 500 ETF SPY went up by 43.7%.