Market Currents
July Nonfarm Payrolls: +163K vs. consensus +100K, prior +64K (revised from 80K). Unemployment...
-
Friday, August 3, 2012, 8:30 AM ETJuly Nonfarm Payrolls: +163K vs. consensus +100K, prior +64K (revised from 80K). Unemployment rate 8.3% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.2% previous.
Other date
Latest Macro Articles
This news story has 57 comments:
Another blow to the doomers....
NO recession.
If you look at the recent years numbers, there have been spike(s) up around the October time frame.
46.4 million on food stamps ( new record).
3.6 million job openings (jolts).
12.7 million on unemployment.
88.3 million NILF ( but let's call it 40 million just to eliminate retirees and others that shouldn't be counted as work age).
Let's call it an even 50 million for 3.6 million jobs. This is the problem. The number of those that want/could/should be working, far outstrips the number of living wage jobs ( I was being generous assuming all 3.6 million job openings were living wage).
Following economic indicators that don't take into account the existing magnitude of the situation seems rather dangerous. I know you disagree with me on this because you look at it from an investor standpoint, and I look at it form a socio/ economic standpoint. The system will collapse....and all that paper and 1's and 0's that everyone is chasing will be for crap. Simply put, the situation is in an ever declining cycle.
http://bit.ly/uosUSn
THE MARKET IS NOT PREPARED FOR HAVING THE FED PUT TAKEN OUT OF THE MARKET IN ONE FELL SWOOP.
THIS COULD BE BIG TROUBLE FOR STOCKS THIS MONTH.
http://yhoo.it/NPXYz1
here is a blog discussing further...
Got Glass-Steagall?
Even if P/E ratios are low in general compared with historical numbers, considering the horrible shape of the "recovery," they (P/E) should be even lower, but haven't been due to market's expectation of Fed intervention.
You've been faked out.
The QE talk has been pabulum to salve nervous markets, but his actions have made it clear that he realizes that more QE would be counterproductive. The new talk of removing interest on excess reserves further confirms this.
Yep.
May was revised up. 77 to 87.
It is like saying a patient that has been paralyzed has shown some signs of recovery by wiggling his big toe once a week.
Still needs to surpass the 200k threshold and stay above it for months to lower the unemployment rate. This just about covers population growth. Considering the amount of stimulus carrying those numbers, I'm still underwhelmed.
edit: development in part-time vs. full-time employment looks weak though.
check out shadowstats.com
althought it's a great scam... i mean business idea. Claim you know more then all the other experts, and that your experts are more credible then other experts. And in order to know the truth! You need to pay me 100$.
Why pay for an opinion that is based on the same info everyone else bases their opinions on... I don't believe any one group/person has information that other groups don't also have... there is no "great secret", they just have a different view point. You are basically paying them for an opinion.
Let's not forget their siamese twin, ZeroHedge.
US government stats do not contain a bias - if you want that go to Argentina
the only bias is in the eyes of the interpreter
shadowjunk takes stats and spins them in special ways - there is no spin in US govt. data
E is for Ecumenical on stats
E
You got that right. I think they will be hurting big time with the client base. However, they did get the overall direction call on the strength of the economy right. With even small downward revisions we could be near zero with GDP this quarter and last.
As an FYI, GDP growth for q1/q2 of 2010 was revised down by 2% in last week's revisions taking the original rate from 4% to 2% which I would submit is quite the swing.
Food for thought.
but if you listened to them and went to cash when they made their original call which was last September at about 1150 you are not thanking them for the service they provided.
Interesting stat from Gary Shilling who I recall you respect:
http://on.mktw.net/NqWCom
"Shilling is particularly troubled by retail sales data, which were down for three consecutive months — March, April, and May.
“That has happened 27 times,” he explained. “In 25 of the 27 times, we were in a recession or within three months of the start of a recession.”
As for the start to the recession it was the middle of 2009 when the NBER officially called the start and end to the last recession. They are typically about a year behind as they compile enough data points to make a call.
Let's not forget that the 2001 recession did not have two quarters of negative growth yet the underlying statistics like employment, industrial production, and others confirmed a recession.
When I go out, I see nothing but empty restaurants, bars, and movie theaters.
Actually, as of a week ago, 74% of firms reporting have beaten earnings estimates, while the revenue beats have fallen to 45%. http://bit.ly/QAmXIe
P.S. You must live in the wrong town.
It is conflicting. Clearly this not a boom but is it a contraction. How can it be with housing picking up and retail sales doing the same. and where are the job losses. And it is hard to see a contraction when there is so much money flowing around and the promise of more.
These are strange days. The world is mediocre and will remain so until the deleveraging is done. But in the meantime don't expect stocks to crater they just won't do that.
Personally I have been raising small amounts of cash opportunistically and moving into energy and some other beaten up names - usually 100% invested - I am anticipating a small pullback as we get towards the cliff. I was hoping for more Euro turmoil as an opportunity to buy back in at 1250 or so - sadly it looks like that will not happen now and maybe a pull back to 1300 is the best we will see.
Long run - and my horizon is +10 years - you cannot care about what happens month to month - it is irrelevant. Recession? Who cares? in 2020 and beyond - 2012 will look like a buying opportunity - and all of this strife is nothing but a ripple on a pond.
E
- 1.204.000 !!
These official employment numbers are completely Orwellian in their capacity to misinform.
I'm sitting here in central Europe and you guys usually over in the States and the only thing that differs between us, is that I know I am in deep deep shit, while you lot are still in denial.
Your society is crumbling, record company profits at the expense of well paid, full-time American jobs is the most unsustainable way forward. Expect the lack of income in the broad population base to eventually run out of credit to cover the income-spending gap. That is when your house of cards will come tumbling down. Ours in Europe is the Euro debacle and it is happening now.
Maybe I'm being a bit harsh here, but looking at past corporate profits is the least informative way to project future earnings in the current environment. This will eventually be a macro story, there is no way about.
Eventually, we're all dead.
A month ago earnings expectations for the third quarter were on average 17%, now they have been marked down to zero.
What is more important? The beat or the fact is was marked down to the floor?
All the money sloshing around is masking the rot like a coat of paint on a termite infested house.
So far the LTRO and EFSF have thrown 1 trillion euros at the European crisis and what do they have to show for it? They have not boosted economic growth and neither has Bernanke's twist programs.
Is this the prelude to the end of year market run up into Xmas?
S&P P/E now well over 20, while economic growth continues to contract.
Keep buying!
Technically the SPY and DIA look like buys but the QQQ and IWM have lagged? That makes me very cautious.