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With the meme circulating that a sub-15 VIX is rare, not likely to last, and consequently...

  • Tuesday, August 14, 2012, 3:16 PM ET
    With the meme circulating that a sub-15 VIX is rare, not likely to last, and consequently bearish for stocks (I, II), Bespoke reminds that prior to 2007, sub-15 was closer to the norm. In one 3 year period - 1993 to 1995 - the VIX closed below 15 on 89% of all trading days.
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This news story has 18 comments:

  •  
    everybody was solvent back then too. hmmm, relevant?
    14 Aug 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Some in 2006/7 thought they were solvent, but were quite the opposite.
    14 Aug 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Shhhhh, bro. Don't tell McCullough.
    14 Aug 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Summary, BUY VXX!!!!!! I would take some TZA Sept Calls also!!!

    I got in Aug and Sept Call $11/$13 VXX options earlier today.

    Looking at TZA, SQQQ, and SCO when it "feels" right!!
    14 Aug 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Short XIV rather than long VXX. And check out SPXS, too.
    14 Aug 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  •  
    VXX call premiums are too rich for me. I would rather have the common at these levels. TZA? Take a look a DPK and do a comparison chart. DPK is ultra short developed markets less the US. I own both TZA and DPK but I think DPK has more potential in that they have outperformed to the downside in comparison to TZA .
    http://yhoo.it/O8aC6V
    14 Aug 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The point is that the market can grind minutely higher on lower volatility - what we have been seeing. The break in the Russell has my attention today. Usually a leading indicator for lower markets in coming days. $COMP has also turned negative. The VIX has surged 8%+ off the 13.67 low. Glad I sold my VIX puts for that profit. Went long calls, but watch the action and play the oscillation(s)...
    14 Aug 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    In 1993-1995, we were a) recovering from the 90-92 recession with a workforce in which manufacturing made up nearly 25% of employment, instead of single digits; b) less than half the way through a three-decade decline in interest rates and inflation; c) HFT and robots didn't exist.

    Other than those trivialities, it's all the same. Why hasn't Bespoke discovered yet that the VIX was below 10 for over 100 years in the Ramses dynasty? C'mon guys, there's got to be a bull case there!
    14 Aug 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    we shall see. market is showing signs of topping out up here. however this is an election year and i dont think they will let the market fall until after the elections.
    14 Aug 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Markets fatigued....Expect a pull back(nothing major) but S&P 1390(1385) is a certainty in the next few trading days...little bump on the VIX and little bump in the wallet
    14 Aug 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    agree, this is not 2007.....
    14 Aug 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Maybe we are all becoming desensitized to Euro/Iran/China hard landing/fiscal cliff crises.
    14 Aug 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    And don't also don't forget we are nearing the end of the current 4 year cycle now and in 1993-1995 we had not started Kondratief winter either.
    14 Aug 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  •  
    After Labor Day the real market action commences. Much of this lately seems to be sleepy market noise.
    14 Aug 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Pray tell...what does this mean: "With the meme circulating" I'm not familiar with memes. Are they statistical perturbations, rumors, memos?.....I need to understand.

    And would the sage that straightens me out about this also educate me as to what IMHO means....Is it "I'm High Obviously", or I'm Hunting Opportunity, or Interesting Men Howl Occasionally......

    Thanks--it tough to be culturally illiterate!
    15 Aug 2012, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  •  
    @Joe Eifrid....VXX common will eat your lunch. Been der done dat.
    15 Aug 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Are you saying trading the VXX options is better. I was just commenting that I would rather trade the common than trade options with the premiums as high as they are. I think VXX is best traded intraday.
    15 Aug 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Intraday works. Between April and July it bounced nicely between 16 and 20 for trading. You have to have sell stops in place for when the bottom drops out. As everyone says, contango has it on an eventual one way street. Scary to short because it can skyrocket in a day.
    16 Aug 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
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