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A major reason for the poor economic growth over the last decade, says David Leonhardt in the...

  • Sunday, August 19, 2012, 5:40 AM ET
    A major reason for the poor economic growth over the last decade, says David Leonhardt in the NYT, is demography: the share of Americans of working age grew to 53% in 2001 from 52% in 1997. That compares with an 8 percentage increase between 1967 and 1997. With baby boomers retiring, expect that share to fall.
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  • Here is a hint...residential investment to GDP went to a 55 year high
    (2005) then proceeded to drop to a 64 year low (2011)...construction
    employment to total non farm employment is at its lowest level since June 1946.....The number of completed new homes for sale are at their lowest level in recorded history (since 1973)
    19 Aug 2012, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • Let's dispel the myth that somehow more people are retiring than are joining the workforce. The generations after the baby boomers are larger than that of the baby boomers. Current generations dwarf the size of the baby boomers. Politicians are just angry because the current generations are not exponentially larger; because of that their Ponzie-Madoff schemes are imploding.
    19 Aug 2012, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • What are you basing that on? According to this demographic pyramid, what you say is not true: http://bit.ly/NTaXLB
    19 Aug 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • What he's saying is true. Look at your own graphs. Now add up all the little colored bars and, as a percentage, they dwarf the baby boomer bar.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • The older segments of the tree are growing more because people are living longer. Because most boomers aren't saving enough, they will ultimately have to work longer as well. I wish I could feel sorry for them, but I can't. If I had been 30 in 1980, bought a house for 50 grand and saved 15% of my income to invest in the market when the Dow was below 1000 I would be a millionaire many times over by now.

    With respect to our current economic malaise I will paraphrase a saying of Bill Clinton in 1992: "it's the housing bubble, stupid." Demographics are just a convenient excuse, our problems result from consumers using their house as a get rich quick scheme and over-leveraging to do it.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • They may be larger in size but you have to take into consideration the number of people that are contributing to each persons social security payments. It is not a 1:1 ratio of Worker to Retiree.

    But more importantly to the point of this article has to do with GDP investments. As people approach retirement they are moving their bond ratio up (percentage in years) which is consistently taking more money out of the stock exchange.

    Add to this the general blow-up of stocks and even people who are well below 40 with any stock interests are running more of a 60% bond portfolio. And why not? Bonds have outperformed stocks for years now. So many that the case for going heavily into the stock market is losing.
    19 Aug 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • it's sunspots! it's the will of god! it the commuininististimuses! it's the butterfly!

    nope. it's years and years of guys spouting nonsense like money isn't real. it's only unreal when you have enough to lose that you don't ever worry about living in your car.

    it's like believing that the world ends when you die. it's a sickness. it's disney, with a fleet of bulldozers, driving lemmings off a cliff in order to create fake science.
    19 Aug 2012, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tax cuts for top 1% don't create jobs.
    19 Aug 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Neither does government spending.
    19 Aug 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • The 'demographics' argument has been around since 2009 at least...


    Harry Dent "The Great Depression Ahead"
    19 Aug 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Yep, demographic arguments can sometimes parallel those of Malthusian arguments...

    (Just remember: change is not a constant...people/systems do adapt, or ... else)
    19 Aug 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Our supreme leader Obama should now be made leader for life. Let us emulate the economies of African countries.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • I wouldn't worry about Baby Boomers retiring so fast. Most can't afford to with the value of their homes and their savings depleted over the last decade and current pensions looking like they are going to have to be cut because no one can safely earn a return large enough to live on. The so called Middle Class is only for the political elite and their cronies, not for anyone else. We need to cut all those special perks for estates, trusts, tax free bonds and charitable deductions for the one per cent and give that back to the real middle class by eliminating capital gains for those making less than $200,000 a year. Only goes to prove that there are lots of ways to cut the budget without a board to deprive the elderly of medical care.
    19 Aug 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • You're insane.
    19 Aug 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • You really are an idiot. It's been shown that everything on the table that the liberals are trying to implement to pay down their debt won't even come close.

    http://bit.ly/RumSGi

    The problem dwarfs most human understanding and to cling to a political party line removes you from the discussion.
    19 Aug 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Another problem is baby boomers like me who could retire, but have seen our parents retire and then be bored out of their minds for 20 years. I want to work as long as I can, just to keep sane.
    19 Aug 2012, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • The federal government had a $230 billion surplus in 2000 and was on the way to paying off the $5,675 trillion public debt by 2012 when the June, 2001 tax cuts were passed. The lockbox (primary subject of the 2000 election) was broken and by 2002 the federal budget was in the hole, running a $159 billion deficit. Then the 2003 tax cuts were passed and America went on a wild spending spree that virtually bankrupted our banking system and required federal bailouts in 2008. Face it, American voters voted this on themselves.
    19 Aug 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • That $5,675 trillion debt was a little overstated; should have been $5.675 trillion.
    19 Aug 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Boomers are only 48-66 in 2012.

    And most of us are not in the least interested in retiring.

    A good part of the political conflict in this country - and it spans party lines - is too many in power - themselves Boomers or in some cases, Boomers' parents - trying to get Boomers in the 99 percent to make room for less experienced, less educated, and less qualified younger people.

    Boomers in the 99 percent have been a convenient - and rather disgraceful - scapegoat for both parties' inability to get along with each other and reach consensus for the good of the country.

    19 Aug 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Agreed. Financially able to retire, but why? What kind of carrot can I toss the 20 somethings under me to stick around and wait for me to call it quits?
    19 Aug 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Most of the reason we have poor economic growth over the last decade has more to do with government intervention with what was once called a Free Market that has been developing over generations but has reached a new high only recently.

    The "correction" to this problem, in political terms is so far outside of the comprehension of Republicans and Democrats that few can even understand the concepts needed. It's definitely not going to be Keynesian or MMT economics.
    19 Aug 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Gov't intervention? Heck no, technology. Companies hire peolple to crank out production. Take a modern beer bottling line, takes engineers and programers.
    19 Aug 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
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