Market Currents
August Nonfarm Payrolls: +96K vs. consensus +125K, prior +141K (revised from 163K). Unemployment...
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Friday, September 7, 2012, 8:30 AM ETAugust Nonfarm Payrolls: +96K vs. consensus +125K, prior +141K (revised from 163K). Unemployment rate 8.1% vs. consensus 8.3%, 8.3% previous.
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It's all good, until someone needs to feed their family from something other than the 'dole'.
http://bit.ly/uosUSn
We need $1.3 trillion in deficit spending just to maintain the status quo now.
"Real" unemployment approximately 15-25 % among working age Americans !
College graduates have an abysmal 50 % chance of finding a job with their newly earned degree.
This is Obama's economy...... so sad for the future of our young adults !
http://bit.ly/UxVh4O
Newsflash for you. The only reason the unemployment rate dropped was due to lower "participation rate" in the job force. Let me translate that for you: THERE ARE LESS PEOPLE working than last month. It's embarassing to listen to those shills on CNBC (Liesman & Kernan) try to put "lipstick on the pig." Liesman went so far as to suggest those dropping off the list "may have actually found jobs". Wow, Steve. Where did that come from? Did you pull that right from your arse? What a pathetic propaganda machine for Obama. Joseph Goebbels would be proud to see how far these whores have gone with brainwashing the populace. Bottom line: Job growth is non-existent and as Eastwood said last week "We have to let him go"
The decline in the jobless rate, from 8.3 percent in July, came primarily because the labor force participation rate fell to 63.5 percent, its worst level in more than 30 years. The civilian labor force contracted by 368,000.
(CI here) Unemployment as a profession is now part of the progressive new normal.
It doesn't matter that the numbers are terrible. It doesn't matter that the economy is floundering. It doesn't matter that recovery is anemic.
What matters is you believe the poor numbers are good enough to help your preferred political party do better on election night.
Yea, showing your stripes I'm definitely counting on you and your preferred politicians to look after the best interests of the common citizen, sure I am…..
Don't care about Kernan's political affiliation. He is a moron.
Santelli is one bright guy who has his finger on the pulse.
Liesman is smart but always has an excuse for why the numbers disappoint.
The primary reason for this loss of market share is the relative cost of labor. The only way to stop this loss is to reduce the wages and living standards of the Developed Markets labor force to compete with the Emerging Market labor force.
A huge unemployed work force holds down labor demands for wage increases and higher minimum wage legislation. The minimum wage has lost value for nearly 45 years. Think about that sobering fact for a second. Even by raising the minimum wage to $10 per hour, it would still remain below the minimum wage (in today’s dollars) in 1968. Candidate Obama in 2008 promised to push for a $9.50 federal minimum wage by 2011. Have you heard anything mentioned about minimum wage during the election campaign? Even from the unions? No, because it is feared that raising the issue now even if the legislation introduced by Jesse Jackson Jr. was passed it would cause unemployment to increase. The truth is productivity gains by business allows them to get by with fewer workers. The only jobs I have seen advertised on television here where I live are invitations to apply for jobs in homeless shelters and food banks, which is apparently the new growth industry here.
My guess is that this is well understood by our masters who are arranging for us to compete on the world market with the Emerging Markets. Good Luck everybody who may be thinking of asking for a raise.
That's an easy question answered by Grover Glenn Norquist: "I'm not in favour of abolishing the government. I just want to shrink it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub."
Business has made no secret of their hatred of government, especially, democratic government which cost a fortune to buy the politicians and finance election campaigns. That's what this transition is all about to replace the present form of government to something like the command economy of China which is so admired due to the high growth rates and a subjugated population that is easily controlled. China is on track to be become the number one economy in the world and our system is thought to be anachronistic and broken to the point where it no longer works.
The goal for the U.S. and Europe is to emulate China and divide the global economy between them. Think about how you would accomplish that and take a look at what is happening around you.
You and I think in terms of today. Governments have super computers which can run game theory programs and predict and model various strategies. I suspect this is the theory that keeps winning.
Nice revision down in last set of fake numbers too...care to tell us why that's also positive?
to month change is error filled....
temp help employment is down, average hours flat, manuf overtime hours down... i don't see it...
Miscellaneous store retailers is up, i think that includes pawn shops... maybe that's it...
For an election year, that is a disaster for a sitting president.
Wow. I tell you it's weird that a falling desire to find work is the equivalent of hiring when it comes to the jobless rate.
So in theory, we can drive this rate way down by killing/crushing the hopes of the currently unemployed.
For the life of me I can't see why I should vote to give more resources to politicians and spin doctors who sell numbers like these as positive.
I don't care about party, it is just plain dishonest.
The unemployment of working age Americans could be 90 % but if enough of them had been unemployed for over 18 months the report could indicate an "unemployment rate" of 8.3 % !
It's sad but true.
http://bit.ly/Iq2OMU
The 8.1 is irrelevant because it comes from shrinking the denominator. Smaller pool; higher water level.
Plus, these numbers are all estimates in any event.
They don't actually count anybody.
Funny that, but we all bet billions on the figures.
So you figure out what would happen to fix these numbers if by some chance, the folks thought BHO deserved four more years.
Now, explain to me one more time why Romney is history?
I just got to hear this...
Why don't they bring up these arguments when the number beats? When it beats they have only love for the NFP.
You are a logical guy so why do you pay any attention to the Intrade contract?
That same contract had Kerry winning by about a 95% margin the day of election on Nov 2004. Ever since then I have never taken it seriously.
All it is is another reflection of public opinion polls - so one data point mirroring another but appearing independent which it is not.
Nice spin!
Oh the joy of going to someone else' party.
Oh, the pain when they call YOU to come clean up afterwards.
Retail part-time temporary jobs are being and have been filled in anticipation of Christmas. That's built into this 96K number. How many jobs will fall off in January?
Be a patriot and go to the mall.:)
Isn't it becoming clear that not only do we have "to let him go," but we need hope for change throughout the establishment media.
CNN: "US economy adds 96K jobs, Jobless rate down slightly"
FNC: "US shows week job growth, adds only 96K jobs"
CNBC: "New jobs @ 96000, missing expectations"
Drudge: "8.1%, 96000 added, fed set to pump, 368000 dropped out"
Huffington: "August Jobs report disappoints"
Wait till you hear Ryan talk about Obamma's speech last night. Basically he gave a good speech, but you can be sure that Ryan will rip it apart.
Bottom line: none of these guys is capable of telling the truth. They are just like Goldman Sachs: what's in it for ME? (And, oh by the way, the mupppets (that's you and me) will ALWAYS pay for their profligate ways.)
Bottom line: Although you are going along for the ride as a "mupppet," I ain't. I'm a far-right-wing troll and proud of it.
I am certainly not here to defend the rich and I do believe they should pay their fair share. But there is some history here that we should pay attention to. After the market crash in '29, the tax rate for top wage earners went up dramatically. 5 years later we were still in a Depression. Many economists & historians believed that raising the rate on the rich EXTENDED the Depression for several more years.
"Class warfare" never seems to achieve the expected result, does it?
Essentially what you said is "Soak others so that I get more/free stuff!"
You demonstrate the exact same traits that you claim drive CEOs and business……
There is one difference though; my partnering with business is voluntary, there are few monopolies so I have an out option for receiving bad service. My partnering with government is coerced, they tell me what I pay, what my level of service will be, and they tolerate no competitors.
By the way, there was only a single man in the United States in the top tax bracket -- John D. Rockefeller and he was proud to pay the taxes he was paying, publicly so.
Amazing, the number of idiots clicking the "like" button on this.
If you do this, then, capital will flee, taking its jobs along, too. But wait! We can prevent that, right? First, we'll just establish exchange controls, so money can't leave the country. Then, when that doesn't do enough to prevent capital and minds from leaving, we can build a huge wall around the borders, complete with armed soldiers, not to keep immigrants out, but citizens in. Now, we can confiscate all wealth and redistribute it to "the people" (oh, don't forget the rake-off for Government czars) and we can provide everybody a great job, via the Government edict.
Hmmm, that sounds a bit familiar.... Oh, yeah, that's right; we've just reinvented the Soviet Union.
The really scary thing is that these people are enfranchised with the vote.
That would be ideal, but I'd even settle for requiring that one pay taxes to vote. If one's tax rate is zero, then so is your voting right.
This is the fourth time since May that the ADP report has misled where the NFP was going.
For current news just look at what is now happening in France since they announced a 75% tax rate, companies are shipping as many executives to London to live and work as possible because of this, and the capital will soon follow, England welcomes them with open arms.
For another example look no further then the 10% luxury tax that I believe was enacted here in 1991, contrary to what was expected it very quickly and decisively crippled the luxury car and yacht industry, it didn't take very long for this tax to be repealed, you know to SAVE the jobs. Amazing just how stupid politicians are and how they just dont get it or learn from their mistakes.
http://bit.ly/RU8n8E
Actually, I was out at Total Wine reloading the wine cabinet.
I'm still laughing at the pessimists, and so is the market, apparently. But, you just keep glued to that unemployment rate and make your decisions based on that trailing indicator. And, just when the jobs reports finally start to look boffo, and unemployment plunges, then, load up on stocks, so you can be just in time for the next downturn.
They're not stupid. They know they're more populist idiots out there, who will pull voting levers on that kind of pandering, than folks who have any idea how an economy functions.
I agree money can be made from the market, as long as the market thinks it will be propped up. I actually take a different approach and make money from the multi QE actions which push PMs up. The side benefit is the cost of extraction is also rising, making a bit of a solid bottom. The part I do worry about is the degrading workforce.
http://bit.ly/QoimCK
This doesn't include retirees..it is workage only. With in a year or 2 we will hit the point where the working can no longer support the non-working. We have a mass worker glut...this is my worry. Will papaer money be worth much...probably not...heck maybe even gold and silver wont be worth anything...perhaps the currency will be wine! The Honig I'm having is rather excellent tonight...love the angry wines.
Terry..once again totally misreads todays #'s as positive per the 8.1 and has most likes (11) on topic?
...are there really that many blondes that frequent finacial blogs?
:)
I love your comment about the blondes. Here is more "cold water" to dump on the "recovery is just now coming" theme. Tyler Durden, the editor of Zero Hedge made the following comments today about the NFP number:
-If you account for population growth and the declining participation rate, the actual unemployment rate (not the U-6 number mind you) is actually 11.7% NOT 8.1%. Of course we could not publish that little bit of embarrassing data, could we? Certainly not two months before an election.
-There are now 25.8 million people in the USA unemployed and underemployed. Gee, and just last week Clint told us it was just 23 million. Simply amazing how strong this recovery is. NOT.
-There are now 5.2 million part-time workers in the US economy. That is exactly DOUBLE the number from 2008. At this rate all of us will end up being part-timers. Whether we like it or not!
Simply amazes me that people are even considering voting to re-elect this zero. The emperor truly wears no clothes.
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com
I was thinking the same thing except I think it will be closer to 7%.
I hope we're both wrong.