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Don't bet on a Sprint/T-Mobile merger happening, says Goldman. The combined company would own...
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Tuesday, September 11, 2012, 2:10 PM ETDon't bet on a Sprint/T-Mobile merger happening, says Goldman. The combined company would own $35B in high-yield debt, the firm points out, and Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) might not be crazy about a deal that would face regulatory scrutiny and have a major equity component to it (ed: another hurdle is that the carriers run incompatible 3G networks). The firm thinks a Sprint (S) bid for MetroPCS (PCS - previous) or Leap Wireless (LEAP) is more logical. (Sprint CEO remarks)
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I don't think I buy a Tmob-S merger as much as a MetroPCS-Sprint joinup in the end, regardless of the board's previous position.
Deutsche Telekom is also not going to enter into deal where it won't get guarantees, similar to what it got from AT&T (besides, Sprint has zero dollars to entice someone the likes of Deutsche Telekom to start the ball rolling).
Even if the parties started courting, Washington does not like Deutsche Telekom's people. (Recall the FBI had German law enforcement execute two search warrants, one on Rene Obermann's house, the other his offices.) So any deal that has T-Mobile's fingerprints on it, other than an outright sale to U.S. interests, is not going to "pass go" through Washington.
Oh, and it does not help Sprint or T-Mobile that the Dept. of Justice said in arguments to the Court in the AT&T/DT acquisition litigation last year that the DOJ would oppose a TMOUS/Sprint deal.
While Sprint might think it is simpatico with Washington on proposed mergers and acquisitions, the fact remains Deutsche Telekom is in the sewers of Paris (literally and figuratively).