Market Currents
Is the iPhone (AAPL) losing its hold on China? Android has been rapidly gaining followers in the...
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Saturday, September 15, 2012, 3:39 PM ETIs the iPhone (AAPL) losing its hold on China? Android has been rapidly gaining followers in the country, and not just among low-end users who can't afford Apple's newest model. "China has had a series of love affairs with one phone manufacturer after another," notes one local consultant. Two reasons not to count Apple out: we're just a few months removed from a blowout quarter for Chinese sales, and the iPhone 4 price cut means Apple can now go after mid-range users with a phone sporting a retina display. (also)
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If you have an Android phone, have you downloaded the latest virus security version? Do not need 1 for iPhone.
I find is confounding that there are still so many hands-wringing naysayers about what is by far the best company in the world with the most profit potential (half of it already in the bag). first, it was Samsung we were supposed to be afraid of and look what Apple did to them. Then we were supposed to fear the Amazon Kindle and the Windows tablets. Then we were supposed to be afraid of providers or labor issues or component shortages. It is always something with the naysayers.
Meanwhile, if they are shorting, they always lose money, and if they are not buying they are losing out on a once in a lifetime opportunity. Apple story and its stock price is only 50% in the bag so far. Catch it while you can folks, especially on any dips. And don't bet against a company that sells out 2 million units in one hour and has by far the most loyal customers on the planet.
I guess you must be referring to Samsung, since Samsung has a larger marketshare than Apple. If any company is approaching "saturation," it would be Samsung.
Chinese people are fickle, they look for the latest and greatest technologies but on a budget. Neither of which could really be said to apply to the iPhone 5. It's more a warmed over rehash of yesterday's technology optimised to increase 50% operating margins further.
(Long NOK :))
The revenue for the last quarter ending September 30, 2012 will not great. It will be certainly disappointing the market when they will report the figures by mid October 2012. I'm expecting the Stock drop of 15% to 20%. This will be the opportunity for a big drop of all the markets.
But de big drop may come as early as Friday October 5th when the statistics will show a revised unemployment rate of 8.3% (for august) and 8.5% for September. The employment situation is not improving and the trend will continue for at least the first half of the year 2013
Wow! Agree with you on the UE outlook. Our leaders are inept on the fiscal side. Bernanke is doing gymnastics but he cannot solve it.
That would likely bring the market down or at least level it off.
You mean the same market that priced FB accurately?
Apple investors have happy ears. That is all they want to hear. When something hits negative there will be a lot of people bailing including hedge funds.
The last week of 5 sales in the 3rd quarter will look great
Unemployment stats have not affected AAPL
The situation is this... people have not been buying iPhones in the last two months because the rumor mill has been foaming at the mouth non-stop about a new iPhone release... so it is not only logical, but entirely expected... that Android device sales would have been gaining ground. It would have been highly suspicious if they had not been.
So, expected thing occurs, and in no way demonstrates that Android devices are somehow making Apple lose its market position.
Expect more of the same
You need to get a life. Making love to a stupid phone is..........well stupid.
Correction ...I don't have a IPhone ..and I was merely pointing out that many people budget to buy the things they REALLY want and do without other things....besides, I don't have much time for "getting a life ", as I am to busy counting my money..I have tons of Apple stock.........bought with all the money I saved......
This Market Current's timing is questionable to say the least. Certainly speculation such as this could have appeared on SA a week or two ago.
The Q4 numbers will tell all that investors need to know about China and how Apple is doing with sales there.
I'm amazed at how many Apple fans jump on anything remotely negative written about the company while paying scant attention to the volumes of positive stuff that's put out. This post, for that matter, was far from entirely negative.
red-neck talk
My take on the piece is that there are 680M China Mobile customers who may have the option of buying iPhones.
Please try not to confuse Apple shareholders (which I am) with "fans" of Apple. While I like Apple products and there are plenty in my household, I am not one of the so-called fanboys. I have held Apple stock for years and have read both positvie and negative articles on the company here at SA. Paying atttention to news on the stocks in my portfolio is an everyday activity.
I thank you for your comment.
Regarding China Mobile, I think it'll be a big deal when it happens because of their size and reach. But I also think a lot of China Mobile users who badly want an iPhone have already jumped ship for China Unicom or Telecom, or will do so before a deal arrives.
I remember the naysayers too in ULTA, UA, RL......
We are in a battle for market share and margins are going to come down. The war is only starting to heat up.
Who leads China smartphone market? (% share based on unit shipment) %
1. Samsung 20.8
2. Lenovo 11.4
3. Coolpad 10.4
4. Huawei 9.8
5. Nokia 9.1
6. ZTE 8.4
7. Apple 7.5
(Source: IHS iSuppli Research, August, 2012)
Subscriber numbers for 3G service is still quite low at China Mobile. A better statistic would be the number of subscribers who use the iPhone at China Telecom and China Unicom because these are the only carriers with wireless networks that are compatible with the iPhone 3G/3GS/4/4S.
If and when the iPhone 5 finally supports China Mobile's 3G TD-SCDMA and China's 4G TD-LTE, then and only then can Apple really market the iPhone 5 to the Chinese market.
That is to say, Apple has barely started in China. By 2015, the table above would show Apple occupying the number one slot...
Am I the only one here who's willing to bet on Apple's ascendance in China?
China Mobile will be a big deal....but just know that the number of smartphone accounts are roughly equal across the 3 major carriers....so, in the near-term, I expect the impact of China Mobile to approximate the impact of China Telecom.....
Agree. But lots of people seem fond of using current statistics to bolster their claim that the iPhone is losing steam in China when in fact Apple has BARELY started in China. China Unicom was the first carrier to offer iPhones followed by China Telecom this year but neither of them can even come close to China Mobile. Although there are iPhone users on China Mobile, they're using it only for voice calls on the 2G GSM network.
China Mobile's 3G TD-SCDMA has one-fourth the bandwidth capacity of WCDMA and thus won't be that useful for internet access. So, there's no point for Apple to come out with an iPhone 4S supporting TD-SCDMA just for China Mobile. Apple would have to wait for 4G TD-LTE to come online and heavens knows when that will be -- 2013, 2014 or 2015?
Right....some of that is due to the same product cycles that impact our domestic numbers.....but I no longer care that they are unaware of what is really happening....just like only looking for information that is good, only looking for the bad, is similar....most do it subconsciously....
...it is filtering information that confirms their current view......neither is good for investing.....they either lose money or they lose opportunities....I try not to concern myself about them....they are grown-ups.....
China Mobile has vastly more feature phone accounts than the other carriers....but the number of broadband accounts are about the same.....As far as the 2G on China Mobile, I think customers can use it to access email, Internet, but it would be very, very slow....I may be mistaken on that, though, I would have to review my old notes on it....
I also think that Apple has already incorporated the Qualcomm chips into the iPhone 5 to accommodate China Mobile, and that there are a few different versions of the iPhone 5 according to geographical areas....for Apple to have neglected planning ahead to work with China Mobile seems foolish and short-sighted to me....even though you are saying that there is no point...I think that they have already done this....we will soon find out whether I am right or wrong on this...
That's what I meant: the iPhone 5 not the 4S is the logical choice to support both 3G TD-SCDMA and 4G TD-LTE for China Mobile, neither of which is compatible with global 3G and 4G standards. Sorry, but I didn't see any of these two standards in the international version of the iPhone 5 specs. The international version of the iPhone 5 also does NOT support the LTE bands used in Europe! And thus only two carriers in Europe can actually use the 4G LTE capability of the iPhone 5!
I am pretty sure Apple has already designed the iPhone 5 to support whatever standards and frequency bands is required for international markets. They're probably just waiting for the right time -- as in a China Mobile deal -- to launch the right iPhone 5 version.
There's a rhyme and reason to how Apple operates. And unlike competing vendors who try to flood the markets with too many models with too many features, Apple does it one at at time -- and kills the other guys -- also one at a time.
Today at church in Shanghai, I was so surprised that an administrator had an IPad, Apple products are all over Beijing and Shanghai by mostly those who can barely afford it-- not as bad as giving up a kidney, but much sacrifice.
It's interesting to hear that 'much sacrifice' to buy consumer goods is becoming part of the China story, although I wonder where it will lead. China's economy is a bit rocky at the moment and domestic consumption of expensive goods is likely not the best idea.
As for Android, all the vendors listed in the table above use that open-source OS. And that's the problem. There are too many Chinese OEMs churning out poor quality handsets and tablets running Android. Note that for Samsung to differentiate itself from the REST of the Android gang, it had to come out with bleeding-edge hardware plus some add-on software (the latest being its "Note" products). That's how Samsung came out on top. This phenomenon also belies the argument that Chinese consumers are too poor to afford Apple's products and would instead opt for the cheaper Android devices. If this were true, Samsung wouldn't come out on top because their products are priced in the upper range of the Android smartphones and tablets.
The Chinese middle class, those earning RMB 5,000 per month, has grown rapidly. But because housing and cars are still quite expensive, most will opt to spend their disposable income on something that has a certain "cachet", eg., LV bags, iPhones/iPads, etc. This phenomenon has turned China into the world's second largest market for Western luxury goods after Japan.
nothing quicker, nor 4g lte of any sort
This is definition of poverty in the USA.
The point though is my friend earns 15k RMB/m in Shanghai, he calls himself part of the lower Middle Class.
There is such a contrast in cn, there can not be such a generalization of income level classes.
Capitalism and hard work are alive in cn!!
The other thing, there seems to be a lot more, legal or not, vendors in Shanghai than in Beijing. It is more like Palo Alto, Mountain View on a Las Vegas scale in Beijing-- a developed city, than Shanghai.
This kind of language will go up next to the kind of statements made about real estate at the peak of the bubble. Apple will do well but when the hype cannot get any hotter there is only one place left to go.
Now, I wonder what Apple's sales will be like as these counterfeits improve...
http://bit.ly/PvtKgR
It's not possible for Chinese OEMs to churn out "fake" iPhones running iOS because Apple custom-designs its own chipsets in-house. That is to say, if you make duplicate copies of the Apple ROM, they won't run on off-the-shelf chipsets made by the likes of TI, Marvell, etc.
Anyone seeing it would immediately know.
Unless maybe if it was a Sony or Samsung.
Anyone dupped is not the market that Apple is after.
No counterfeit iPhone is gonna lower the reputation of Apple products.
Not so with inferior Windows and Android products.
And I also have an HTC Evo cellphone and a Samsung i5 laptop!
I have both and neither one rock my world. And I have an iPad and an iTouch and you name it.
People really need to get lives if they think these are so great. It is just a tool.
my iTouch 4g rocks my world! Changed my life!!!
It takes photos quicker than my Lumix and fits in the pocket. PDA: recorder, note taking.
And then there are all the other functions ...
You need to get a good woman. Makes an iPhone look like a piece of crap.
That's what I'm talking about! :)
IPhone costs the equivalent of 1 month average salary in Shanghai and three times or more of the interior.
You must think the upper-class in China is monstrous to account for China sales....note that the upper-class has been buying Ferraris and such, not just phones....the rapid expansion of the Chinese middle-class is fueling this big move to smartphones....and if you think that the middle-class are not willing to spend a months salary on an iPhone, then you really have not been paying attention....
Many 3k or less RMB/month have iPhones
That is like saying only the upper/middle class in the states can afford an I-Phone!
People are people, if they want it bad enough they will find a way to get it! My brother in law’s “dog walker” has one, and it is not counterfeit. She is not dumb enough to buy a fake.
Are you saying that 1/3rd of Chinese can afford an iPhone? That includes men, women and children.
Naturally, not everyone can afford one just like in the states, but the preference is very strong and even used phones sell at a premium or go for trade/barter.
There is no confusion here once again, “The I-Phone is the phone of choice”.