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Research In Motion (RIMM -2.3%) made new lows today ahead of Thursday's FQ2 report, during which...
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Monday, September 24, 2012, 7:02 PM ETResearch In Motion (RIMM -2.3%) made new lows today ahead of Thursday's FQ2 report, during which the company is expected to announce its first-ever decline for its BlackBerry subscriber base. Along with the subscriber losses and declining phone sales, RIM is seeing falling ASPs: Canaccord's checks indicate that even in markets where low-end BlackBerrys continue selling well, high-end Bold and Torch models are selling poorly. RIM's annual developer conference starts tomorrow.
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This news story has 22 comments:
There is no moving RIMM shares until BB10 is officially released and available for purchase by the public. I cannot imagine anything of substance this week, other than maybe a peak at the devices. Based upon some rumored leaked images, it appears to look quite a bit like the iPhone 5 in shape, though with some noticeable differences, like a back panel that can be removed to add a microSD memory card, or to swap a battery.
Probably need to follow November and December options at this point. The 6.00 strike is still heavily weighting into November, after which the 9.00 strike is seeing more activity. As it increasingly appears that an actual BB10 smartphone will be released for sale, the extreme views that it was impossible, or vaporware, will diminish. However, if enough negative bias in the media, or Cramer screams loud enough, most options players should be safe on a month to month basis.
Finally, RIM's subscriber base has GROWN BY 2 MILLION since last Quarter.
Don't believe the hype.
I hope this will give some "experts" a lesson. Stop blah. Judge on facts and figures.
The fact is Heins succeed - so far - in his action.
The figures are ... 2 million (let's see how the experts valuate these and quickly reestimate their doom and gloom preachs).
JMO
You can see my price targets under my ID.
Good luck to you.
Mark
Thorsten Heins must be under allot of pressure to make such a hasty decision..Can an old dog really learn new tricks, especially in such a short time since his last failure ..He will be i am sure be very pleased with a hefty going away gift package ,i mean the dog, that is ! ...paul m sykes
Options players at the moment do not agree with your 3.00 or 4.00 strike prices, based open the relatively low level of open interest. At that strike price, the company cash and the real estate value of their empty buildings would cover the market cap. In other words, those strike price levels value liquidation of the company, without sale of any equipment, patents, nor the operations of the user base services.
There is absolutely a market for the company's products (like, well, me) but that market is growing smaller as the competition grows its reach. By reach I don't mean user numbers, I mean that RIM is no longer competing with mobile phone companies and mobile device operating systems, but with entire ecosystems of products designed to interoperate with each seamlessly and efficiently.
That's something I can't imagine RIM being able to compete with head to head. I think the strategy of making Android apps play nice with its Playbook was absolutely a good idea, and I fervantly believe RIM should make overtures to Google for increased interoperability for two reasons:
One, RIM needs an ecosystem and hybriding onto Android makes some sense. And two, there's a lot of value in what RIM has, and Google could potentially use it to its benefit, much like MSFT is availing itself of NOK's value (Navteq for example, but its R&D more generally and its willingness to fill holes in MSFT's offering on its own initiative).
If RIMM cannot grow the user base much larger, then they need to downsize to increase profitability. We can see some of that happening with redundancy of employees. Prior to the hiring spree in 2010, there were 45 million BlackBerry users, and the company was profitable with that smaller workforce. Shareholders will want the company to increase profits and grow earnings, beginning next year after the launch of BB10 devices.
My prediction for the record: $3/share sometime in 2013, bk in 2014.
Nokia and Motorola borrowed money for more than 8 quarters, yet neither went bankrupt. Perhaps you don't understand how bankruptcy actually functions for corporations.
Absolutely RIMM could fail in this latest effort. I consider it a speculative play to buy shares. I also highly recommend people avoid the risk and tell people not to buy shares.
If you want to play options positions, or suggest strike prices for others, then 3.00 is quite dangerous. Even the 4.00 strike is high risk. You can see some of that factored into the prices for options. Anyway, feel free to come back in 6 to 12 months and tell everyone how brilliant your analysis was from now.
> how brilliant your analysis was from now.
Hence my "for the record" comment. I'm not afraid to state it. Post your year end 2013 prediction.
You're irascible here.
Anyway, I don't have a one year price target, because my time frame is just over three years on RIMM. Simply due to macro-economic issues, 2013 could be as bad as late 2008 and early 2009, which might place nearly every asset at an extremely depressed level. I expect the low of 2010 in RIMM to be seen in 2015/2016 time frame, which should be the overall growth peak in smartphones.
P.S. - don't take my comments personally. I like to poke fun at people. ;)
Dynamic analysis cannot be settled on hypothesis. Even on facts (earnings call), the metrics are subjects to market forecasts ("is there a #3 or #4 viable position on the global market ?", "is there a (n additional) niche market in witch RIM can perform enough to make big money ?").
These are perspective where "experts" and "analysts" have demonstrated their limits : they don't know, but still throw a penny and consider it can stand on its side, spreading the media with their views. In IT and telco's you can't predict the future: no one ever did in a 3-5 years perspective (see APPL, Oracle/Java, IBM, HP examples, and much more).
RIM current move is innovative. The only thing we do care now is their ability to implement the plan and the capability to finance it.