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Wednesday, Sep 26
2012, 10:00 AM
Aug New Home Sales: 373K vs. 380K expected, 374K (revised) prior.
Aug New Home Sales:
vs. 380K expected, 374K (revised) prior.
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Completed new homes for sale..38,000..lowest on record (since
January 1973),,,no recession has started unless this number was at
least above 90,000...
26 Sep 2012, 10:11 AM
I think you mean no recovery has started unless it's above 90K. They can only fudge the numbers so much...
26 Sep 2012, 10:29 AM
Construction employment to total nonfarm employment is at a 66 year low....lowest since June 1946
26 Sep 2012, 10:59 AM
Shocked, shocked I tell ya'.
With the abundance of jobs and credit flowing so freely for those who are looking to buy or build, I'm a little verklempt.
Seriously, the expectations are pretty low and they still come up short.
Record-low borrowing costs is the only thing saving some of the homebuilders. Spin it how you want with the "near a two year high" remarks, but with this number near a 50-year low is the data that sticks out the most.
26 Sep 2012, 10:34 AM
The confidence interval is +-9.3% on any given data point. Look at the five-month moving average of new home sales and the five-month (or however many months you'd like) moving average of new homes for sale. One makes a strong move up, one makes a strong move down.
26 Sep 2012, 11:08 AM
Neither statistical noise nor the usual cyclicality within a given year can disguise the grim truth that- in 90% of zip codes-- housing is in a generation long depression in terms of net new construction and the real purchasing power of home equity.
As goes the middle class, so goes housing and for the past several years the middle class has been in manifest decline with no end to this downward material and social mobility in view.
27 Sep 2012, 05:09 AM
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