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More on the Spanish stress tests: The base case scenario (page 11) assumes GDP growth returns in...
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Friday, September 28, 2012, 12:45 PM ETMore on the Spanish stress tests: The base case scenario (page 11) assumes GDP growth returns in 2013 (0.7%) and 2014 (1.2%). For stocks, the IBEX is assumed down 1.3% in 2012 (currently down about 15% YTD), and then essentially flat over the next two years. The adverse scenario has stocks down 5% in 2013, flat in 2014 - that's the adverse scenario.
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Except that it cost us another couple trillion dollars to generate no growth, create a banking industry that isn't flourishing, jobs that aren't growing, and no end in site despite the promise of burning through as many trillions of dollars as it takes to forever bankrupt the state.
But they all passed the test.
Both adverse and base scenarios assume real GDP will fall 2013, not what you reported. The adverse scenario assumes IBEX will fall 51% in 2012, and 5% next year, which is..well..quite adverse. Where did you get your numbers?