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Electric vehicle roundup: 1) Audi (VLKAY.PK) halts plans to develop the R8 e-tron due to high...
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Thursday, October 25, 2012, 2:35 PM ETElectric vehicle roundup: 1) Audi (VLKAY.PK) halts plans to develop the R8 e-tron due to high costs. 2) Legal experts see dealer groups only having a slim chance to convince state judges to grant injunctions that will stop Tesla (TSLA +0.3%) from operating retail stores. 3) The Chevrolet Volt gets some publicity when President Obama reveals he took one for a spin on the grounds of the White House. 4) Toyota will introduce new hybrid Lexus models in the U.S. after 2012 YTD hybrid sales beat expectations.
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However through the first 6 months of 2012, 62,400 were sold, so it appears sales of 125,000 could be reached. http://bit.ly/Rm5Oid
The US will have new car sales of about 14 million in 2012 so 125,000 is less than 1% of total sales.
Your research needs a little work.
62,400 is a projection of what would be sold in all of 2012.
The projection was made in July.
Through Sept. Total of Plug in cars about 30,000
Of those 80% were Plug-in hybrids
Inside EVs
http://bit.ly/TjXhje
This does not include Hybrids without plugs.
It seems that 100 K projection will be a tad high.
Since most cars stay on the road for about 14 years it seems we are going to need oil and gasoline for a very long time.
It could take a very long time for electric cars to make any significant impact on the automotive market, or to gain any significant share of the user base. I think natural gas vehicles will have an larger impact in the near term. That will start with Shell and a few other companies setting up natural gas refueling points for long haul truckers, which will eventually get the general public more interested in natural gas vehicles. My feeling is that pure electric vehicles will remain a niche until a larger infrastructure to support them emerges.
This is from January 2012.
I haven't seen anything newer.
Jalopy Nation? The Average Car on the Road Has Never Been Older
http://ti.me/R7tQvB
"These are the findings of the automotive research firm Polk, which released data showing that, as of June 2011, the average passenger car on the road was 11.1 years old, up from 11.0 as of 2010 and 10.8 in 2009. The aging of light trucks has occurred at an even swifter pace, averaging 10.4 years old in 2011, up from 10.1 in 2010 and 9.8 in 2009. Overall, all vehicles on the road today average 10.8 years old, up from 10.6 in 2010 and 9.0 as recently as 2002."
The point is that it will take a very long time to change the types of vehicles in use. I have heard some electric car advocates claim that we would see lots of electric cars on the road soon. The average buying data does not support "soon". Even if sales of gasoline vehicles were banned, taxed heavily, or even smaller bans like inner city driving, the reality is that we will not see a huge shift to electric cars in the near future. Electric cars are niche products.
The Tesla approach could be profitable for Tesla, but I don't think it represents a model for future electric vehicles. People need to equivalent of gas stations for electric cars, with quick "refills" of the batteries. Despite some cities rolling out electric vehicle stations, the overall number is quite small.
Yeah I knew your comment was to Larry. I was wondering if you had a different source. Or newer.
I agree It will take decades.
Tesla could be a niche player...or not.
The rest seem to be backing out except Nissan which is having trouble in the heat. Next summer I expect the screaming to begin and by the end of the following summer they will be running for their lives.
http://bit.ly/RlFcQ3
A car bought today, will likely still be on the road in 2026.