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More on Q3 GDP: Real personal consumption +2% vs. +1.5% in Q2. Residential fixed investment...
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Friday, October 26, 2012, 8:47 AM ETMore on Q3 GDP: Real personal consumption +2% vs. +1.5% in Q2. Residential fixed investment +14.4% vs. +8.5%. Federal government expenditures +9.6% vs. -0.2%. Real final sales +2.1% vs. +1.7%. Prices +1.5% vs. +0.7%. Quickly rebounding stock index futures are given another boost by the beat, the S&P 500 flat after being down about 1%.
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Must have a lot of funds on hand with national government debt at meager $16 TRILLION now.
Yeah, this "recovery" is humming right along. We set a new record for people collecting federal disability checks this month, too (up to almost 9 million), in case you were wondering where those unemployed folks were going once they magically disappear from the UE rate.
Something will come out of this, good or bad, if it's good, then we all breathe a sigh of relief, if it's bad, then at least the conclusion will come soon enough. Better than Japan's 20 years of zombie hopping.
Samuel
Internally, NQ Intraday 24-hr 240min Chart wavecount is a Triangle. On the Daily Chart, it may actually be undergoing a 1-2-3-4-5 run down or a Complex Spiral Meltdown if it keeps plunging:
= NQ Daily Chart: http://bit.ly/RkgHml
This rally from June 4 is devilishly hard to interpret including the last 24 trading days of pullback that may either be a Complex Flat for Dow Jones and SnP500 or a Simple Triangle at their current forms.
We will know soon whether they are Either/Or depending on the next several days of price actions or a Neither/Nor if the Consolidation Phase kept extending for possibly another 24 trading days.
For Now: I bought some SSO Day-Trades yesterday using the 15min Divergence Buy Signal. The YM and NQ Intrepid Trades were stopped out for small losses after the AAPL report. I bought them back near their bottoms when AAPL was testing it's 200ma support of $588 using the 24hr chart (for AAPL).
y-o-y
"Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.6 percent in the second."
"Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.6 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second."
2012 03 9.598748764484500 %
2012 02 -0.234374899299239
2012 01 -4.224549177157540
2011 04 -4.400090366972940
2011 03 -4.316038465083830
2011 02 2.731268773395850
2011 01 -10.321322013324000
2010 04 -4.080169560683080
2010 03 3.637869543764390
An investor's job is not to like or dislike the news, but rather, to profit from the news regardless of whether he likes or dislikes the news!
something closer to my estimate of around 1½% when all of the data are in.” — Stephen Stanley, chief economist, Pierpont Securities.
as they have done with the weekly unemployment claims number for years the GDP number is always revised downward down the road. On with the recovery, available 24/7 on all channels.
0% corporate profit recovery is underway.
and of course a 9% govt. increase will create economic activity.
Chavez does the same thing and he got elected also.
http://seekingalpha.co...
I am sitting on all dry powder right now!!
knows how the game is played at the end of
the fiscal year.
subtract out the "boost" from the dod
expenditures and your gdp number is
closer to reality
Yes, it can go on forever and it will. The Great Depression did not bring history to an end, neither did the Black Plague. Have you noticed that we're still here and don't live in caves?
The end of the world is harder to arrange than you think. One reason you're wrong is that you don't see that debt is tied to growth. And though it might sound a bit odd to say, bubbles do not play a purely negative role. They are an inevitable byproduct of expansion cycles, best controlled by an evolving regulatory scheme. I see bubbles as the decadent late phase of expansions where investment psychology gives way to gambling.
This causes problems for analysis since preconceived ideas usually say that phenomena are all good or bad. The cure is to pay attention to how things work and try to figure out how we got here, and the answer to all "end of the world" theories is that so far they have been 100% wrong. Why is that, do you think?
The Second Law of Thermodynamics says you can't get more than you put into a closed system. I see three possibilities applying this to the economy:
1) The Law is wrong and here is my Perpetual Motion machine. Wanna invest?
2) The Law is correct and correctly applied to the economy. There is no free lunch and economic growth is a Ponzi scheme when assisted by government and requires no explanation when done by private parties (?). An expanding pie is an optical illusion, all you can do is fight for the biggest piece.
3) The Law is correct but misapplied to systems that are not closed, receiving vast amounts of energy from the Sun which supports life, expanding agriculture, industrialization and an endless supply of Kenyan Socialist parasites. Let's count coal, oil, gas, wind and solar energy as positive sum inputs into our not very closed system. The government flywheel counters the time decay factor (assets and skills decay during slumps), moves forward investment surplus to when it's needed. The saved wastage is the "free lunch". :-)
I vote for Door #3.
How much government we buy with our surplus is a source of endless bickering, in part fueled by misunderstanding about the nature of growth and how it comes about. You have increased population, technological advance which gives you more work with less input, and social advance, as when government figures out that well fed and educated soldiers fight better, and then generalizes the lesson for everyone and everything.
"Easy to spend other peoples money"
I thought the money came from thin air, I must have been napping. If it did than it might make your money worth less, though you have to figure how much money you'll have if the economy continues to improve.
Since expensive money, which we all would like if we had lots of it, doesn't promote growth, it's a bad deal unless you're a creditor who feels richer as the world gets poorer. For everyone else, the value of money is best set at the level that provides the most income for average people. That's important, while the value of the dollar, its "intrinsic value", isn't, except as a means to a worthwhile goal.