Initial Jobless Claims: -9K to 363K vs. 369K consensus, 369K prior. Continuing claims +4K to 3.26M.

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bbro Comments (7895)
 
52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims
drops 526 to 374536....no recession
1 Nov 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like

mickmars Comments (1116)
 
Intitial claims stuck at same level as the beginning of 2012. No recovery.
1 Nov 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like

bbro Comments (7895)
 
We are in a slow growing economy with an upward trajectory....
1 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like

Papaswamp Comments (2114)
 
+300,000 new claims a week for how many years is an upward economy? Majority of 'new' jobs are part time not full. Rate of workforce population growth is far outstripping jobs. Last months employment report was awful. NSA full time jobs decreased by 500,000 and part time increased by 1.2 million. The economy is stagnant and isn't degrading because the Fed keeps rate forced down and is in QEinfinity mode. The federal govt is the leading backer of loans (even though it is $16.2 Trillion in debt). One little hiccup and the whole thing falls apart.
1 Nov 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like

2MuchDebt Comments (192)
 
And once the U.S. economy heads south again (eventually it will happen), monetary and fiscal policy will be all out of dry powder.
1 Nov 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like

Larry Sohl Comments (119)
 
I know +300,000 is a nice scary number to throw at people in an election year, but that number is not particularly scary. Over the last 40 years, weekly unemployment claims have only been under 300,000 about 8% of the time. Under 300,000 simply isn't normal.

Sorry if that puts a dent in your desired 'sky is falling' story.
1 Nov 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like

2MuchDebt Comments (192)
 
It's scarier when you consider how so many people are already without jobs and companies have gone to extreme lengths to create lean work forces through significant job cuts over the past few years. You would think this number would be much lower in a healthy economy given the economic landscape. Plus the number is actually closer to 400,000, but I would see your point if the aforementioned weren't true.
1 Nov 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like

David Urban Comments (1036)
 
The hiccup is named Sandy.

Just wait until after the election and all the bad news comes out.

http://reut.rs/OMccMP
1 Nov 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like

jhooper Comments (4705)
 
"It's scarier when you consider how so many people are already without jobs"

This is really the issue. In a thriving economy, you could have 400k+ unemployment claims, if the economy were going through structural changes as part of growth. For instance, people making typewriters are laid off, but find work a week later for more money in a position related to computers.

The fear in this environment, is that you don't have NFP at 450k+, so the worry is that the people being unemployed are going to stay that way or find a job that was worse than the one they had.
1 Nov 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like

mickmars Comments (1116)
 
We'll just have to agree to disagree on our definitions of a "recovery".
2 Nov 2012, 06:22 AM Reply Like

bbro Comments (7895)
 
52 week moving average dropping at a rate of 630 a week this quarter....which is a
faster pace than last quarter...
1 Nov 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like

jhooper Comments (4705)
 
Still nothing here to suggest people will be going back to work fast enough with really good jobs that will cause real estate to rebound fast enough that will improve the collateral value of loans on bank balance sheets. As such, bank capital will stay constrained, and lending tepid.

More malaise.
1 Nov 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like

youngman442002 Comments (5024)
 
Malaise is right...just like Japan..but eventually the people get to old to create an economy....and it implodes...they will..and we will
1 Nov 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like

mickmars Comments (1116)
 
Yep. Malaise and/or stagflation are the best descriptions for most western economies. Any modest growth in employment or GDP is fueled by money printing and debt.

The Fed can always prevent or counteract any nominal recession.

I just hope we can drag the ponzi out long enough, like Japan, to get my kids through college.
1 Nov 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like

TFCAB Comments (1187)
 
its a zombie economy......operating somewhere between barely alive and totally dead.
1 Nov 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like

Whitehawk Comments (2954)
 
Can new ADP numbers be believed? Here's what I see: ADP changes their methodology so that numbers last month are revised lower (almost 50%). Numbers this month are double what analysts expected, under the old methodology. Trend manipulation? This is a joke.

**New methodology is supposed to be published here, but is unavailable: http://bit.ly/Q8RuwM
1 Nov 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like