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October Nonfarm Payrolls: +171K vs. consensus +125K, Sept. revised to +148K from...

  • Friday, November 2, 2012, 8:30 AM ET
    October Nonfarm Payrolls: +171K vs. consensus +125K, Sept. revised to +148K from +114K. Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.9%, 7.8% previous.
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This news story has 41 comments:

  •  
    positive revisions to the ces, good empl growth in both the ces and the household, no recession here, ECRI call your office...
    2 Nov 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Angel,

    I agree with the ECRI part - hard to see any recession in these numbers. I thought they would end up being proven right but that seems about as likely now as Gary Johnson winning the Presidency next week.
    2 Nov 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Angel,

    On the other hand I just read this from Dwaine Van Vuren, this morning:

    http://bit.ly/VikqUr
    On the Brink of Global Recession
    BY DWAINE VAN VUUREN
    "The Global Economy is on the brink of a recession with 58% of 29 OECD countries experiencing business cycle contractions. The chart below shows OECD defined global contractions (grey shaded areas) together with the percentage of 29 OECD member countries experiencing slowdowns. It is evident that whenever 50% or more of countries enter contraction (red dotted line) that the odds of global recession are very high."

    The chart is interesting.
    2 Nov 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Mr, Van Vuuren has a less than 3% chance of a US recession in the next 3 to 4 months....
    2 Nov 2012, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Right. 3 to 4 months is not the time frame to worry about. 1st and 2nd quarter next year shaping up for negative growth in 1st qtr and flat in the second. Big changes for the subsidy mix on tap, taxes, regulations, fiscal cliff stuff, etc, but we will have QEi at the same time. So we may get repeats of equity dives as bad economic data invoke risk off, followed up by reinflating from ramp ups in the volume of QEi each month.
    2 Nov 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  •  
    No recession? Anybody believe these numbers at all? Every day, more big layoffs and ZERO new hiring. Cummins just reported layoffs of up to 1500. Most economists say Europe is in recession next year, probably US too. Remember that this is election time and the sources for all of our economic stats include the admin loving US Fed Govt (BLS) and are reported and spun to always find some good news by the same media that does not think the Benghazi story is a story at all. Come on folks, wake up! The fix is in for BO but it won't hunt this time because it's painfully obvious that the 4th estate is doing its best to make the worst look good, and intelligent folks know it.
    2 Nov 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Galt, i suspected that ecri would turn out to be right as well, esp when retail and industrial production started falling and empl growth got almost to zero, but it didn't happen, and the downward revisions they expected have been upward revisions.

    ECRI said if no recession by june they were wrong.. so they were wrong...
    2 Nov 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The report shows 2011 and 2012 average being 150k+ a month.
    Its not an election year gimmick over the last two months. Just that the doom and gloomers finally noticed.
    2 Nov 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  •  
    we should soon hear of substantial layoffs from Lockheed Martin... after the election.
    2 Nov 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The US economy has smaller trade flows as a percentage of GDP and hence less influenced by economic activity outside the States. About 84% of what Americans of what Americans consume on a value-added basis is produced in America.

    It is pretty obvious that the US economy is accelerating.
    2 Nov 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Most people believe the US economic reports and for good reason, they are generated by professional economists and statisticians and too many people are involved for there to be a conspiracy.

    I worked as an economist and had many discussions with the BLS and other agencies. They are professionals.

    The burden is on you to justify your skepticism.
    2 Nov 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Gallup Non-SA unemployment rate dropped to 7.0%
    4 Nov 2012, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  •  
    What a recovery! I keep hearing these dopes on CNBC saying well this might be the new normal and anemic growth is something we should be getting used to. Tuesday can't come fast enough.
    2 Nov 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Good numbers all around...Non seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 7.5% last months was 7.57%...must of been Republicans doing the stats this month....
    2 Nov 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  •  
    How can these be good numbers?? The unemployment rate HAS NOT CHANGED in the last 4 years - 23 million are still unemployed and were 4 years ago.

    At this rate, it will only take 15 years to put everybody back to work, now thats progress
    2 Nov 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  •  
    No recession.

    Strong numbers overall. Good gains in construction, which has one of the more potent multiplier effects at the local level.
    2 Nov 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  •  
    These aren't good numbers-one needs 250,000 new jobs in the private sector every month just to stay even, given the increase in the working population over time...but you know that, right?
    2 Nov 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "Good gains in construction"

    Careful here. Granted inventory is shrinking, but you also have the Fed attempting to reinflate real estate with QEi. If something happens to that subsidy mix propping up real estate prices, then you better have a plan to protect yourself.
    2 Nov 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Exactly. Previous recoveries have seen gains in the 400k range which naturally moves the unemployment number down. We have been moving it down with a combination of part-time hires and people dropping out of the workforce.

    People getting part-time jobs are not going to be the ones rushing out to buy new homes. You buy a house when you feel secure about the future and the new trend of generational housing where multiple generations live under one roof is not positive for the economy overall. Instead of three houses spread across the generations you now have one.
    2 Nov 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Where you have been, Bro? Four years the unemployment rate was 12%.
    2 Nov 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    And 4 years ago we had the same number employed as we have today.
    2 Nov 2012, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Wonderful Obama Recovery! Give up on your ideology and please think logically. How does a 40% unemployment rate grab you!? Click here:

    http://bit.ly/SibN6E
    2 Nov 2012, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not good at math huh?
    3 Nov 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    No, about two years.
    3 Nov 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  •  
    With 2008-10-01 as your starting point. The numbers are fundamentally the same 154.9 vs. 155.0 million employed.
    4 Nov 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Temp Help service and Truck Transportation employment well above their 12 month moving averages...no recession
    2 Nov 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm voting for Obama. A second term should be bullish for hard assets. I don't care about the other crap. Après moi, le deluge.
    2 Nov 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Something like 80% of black males 20-29 are in jail, on probation, or on parole -- mostly as the enemy in the War on Drugs. White kids get deferred adjudication. The incumbent said he would not pursue this war, but he has sicced his DOJ dogs on CA with the Constitution-threatening seizure of property without process. What I haven't figured out is what he gains.

    So far as I am concerned, this viciously racist policy trumps all.

    Meanwhile, we have armed anarchist insurrection in a Western Democracy within shouting distance of the border of my state. Apparently unlike other educated Americans, this concerns me as well.
    2 Nov 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  •  
    You "not caring about the other crap" is why I worry about people like you voting. That "other crap" is what you should be caring about.
    2 Nov 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I should have ended my comment thusly (sarc).
    2 Nov 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The other crap is what we all should worry about, like electing Grover Norquist, Dick Armey, Carl Rove, Ann Coulter etc. to run the government. As Norquist put it, we don't need a president to tell us what policy should be, we just need somebody to sign this stuff. It will be a cold day in hell when I vote for this bunch.
    2 Nov 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  •  
    More blacks in Jail than in College. What a sad state of affairs and getting much worse over the last 4 years. But this is not because of racism. Its quite simply because so many unfortunately felt the Govt would solve their life's problems with the election of BO. This is not about race at all, it's culture. And nobody in the media has the courage to put this culture down and kill it for the sake of the people that don't know better. Blacks will vote en masse for Obama - look at the polling stations and see the sadness of lemmings at the cliff.
    2 Nov 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I am not sure how these numbers can be looked at as a recovery when they do not cover the net number of people entering the workforce.
    2 Nov 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Forget the politics, the numbers showed a positive direction which I hope continues. I believe these were some of the best numbers in what has been an absolutely terrible recovery.
    I hope they are the start of a more positive trend. I will hope, although I am very suspect.
    2 Nov 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Guys, these numbers suck. They don't even keep pace with population growth. I am sure someone in the SA community will argue with that but math is math.
    2 Nov 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The math is that economic growth is good for investors. And economic growth has sharply accelerated since hitting bottom in the second quarter.

    A lot of you are here to whine as opposed to discuss how to invest.

    Stocks have doubled since March, 2009. Yet you are trying to deny there has been any progress at all.

    You can have March, 2009. I am rather be in November, 2012.
    3 Nov 2012, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If your boy is back in the WH, you will be back in March 2009 soon enough.
    3 Nov 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not sure how you get sharply accelerated when corporate earnings are flat and .7 of the 2% was the government juicing spending.

    The 2% was also the first and least accurate number.
    4 Nov 2012, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  •  
    AIP, so you are "the one."

    "Economic growth has sharply accelerated" Really?! You could be the next Jay Carney if the current administration retains the White House.
    4 Nov 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Believe these numbers or not, who thinks a gain of 171,000 new jobs contrasted with 350,000 of newly laid off job seekers in an ocean of over 10 million unemployed and under employed is a good sign?
    2 Nov 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The economy is looked at through rose colored glasses ONLY by the folks on the left - I would guess they financially benefit from govt largesse, so we will never change their views until they are no longer on dole.

    Re our election, ask anyone who voted for Obama (other than Blacks) what they do for a living, you will see my point.
    4 Nov 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
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