Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Portfolio App for iPad
Finance
(1)
Market Currents

Apple (AAPL) reverses a sizable early decline and goes flat premarket as Gene Munster says his...

  • Friday, November 9, 2012, 8:40 AM ET
    Apple (AAPL) reverses a sizable early decline and goes flat premarket as Gene Munster says his team's checks show iPhone 5 supplies are improving, and it may be just 2-3 weeks before the phone is "consistently available to consumers."
Track new comments on this story

This news story has 58 comments:

  •  
    And so it begins!

    After weeks of trashing Apple in order to get the share price down those darn analysts will now talk it up so they can ride it to $800.

    Predictable or what!
    9 Nov 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  •  
    +1. The supplies apparently just improved yesterday once the share price approached its 530ish support level. Probably in the script written 3 months ago.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  •  
    How do you know its not the demand that is slowing?
    9 Nov 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Umm, Gene Munster was always bullish. He has been strong AAPL bull for years without wavering. Blame someone else.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  •  
    It may be that you start your firm and find out what is the truth and we will hold our breadth until you come up with the answer to your question. ( Your question is very fundamental and leads to the question if God has somebody to answer to)
    9 Nov 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    And unethical, I am an experienced investor and know a company with sound fundamentals such as Apple (a .53 peg that is excellent for a company with Apple's sales potential) that operates in a growing sector which the entire knowledge economy is as the globe makes its transition from the industrial economy to the info/knowledge/tech economy has significant potential and upside. The key I have been watching is Tim Cook's performance as Apple is operating in growing sector, but competent, wise, management is key to strong economic performance. Cook is proving to be very effective and wise. He rolled out a load of new refreshes, and is still able to maintain Apple's high quality standards in tandem, showing he is very capable. He is also very good for the Apple brand he just today sincerely announced a heart felt donation to the Sandy Hurricane victims of 2.5 million, Jobs was not as generous this will be not only great for hurricane victims but Apple sales. He also cares about the environment improving Apple's environmental stewardship standards which I like. As the iphone 5 is excellent I sincerely love Apple products but when I made the decision to purchase their stock I checked Cook's environmental policies they are progressive and he is committed.
    9 Nov 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    With strong fundamentals like Apple, with projected EPS growth of 22% annually over the next five years, a PEG of .53 ect.. and a competent and wise CEO in Tim Cook which Cook is proving to be, any experienced investor knew most of the neg. unsubstantiated press was smoke and mirrors and would have no substantial impact on the long-term price of Apple. But driving a stock down through scaring inexperienced investors is unethical, there are lots of ways to earn money with integrity, only a person who doesn't respect themselves would intentionally try and scare the nervous/inexperienced type of investor to sell their stock some at a loss due to unnecessarily worrying the stock could sink.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I agree absolutely Gene Muster is an upright ethical professional I follow some of his other stock research. But there are other players who have intentionally been trying to drive the stock down and create volatility in the stock, to unethically scare anxious and inexperienced investors to sell their stock many of which do and end up losing perhaps hard earned savings or even a precious inheritance they put into Apple. Apple has excellent fundamentals and a CEO who is very smartly managing the Apple brand, ie today he announced a heartfelt donation to hurricane Sandy victims not only a sincere, valuable donation, but excellent for Apple's image, and will result in higher sales of products in the US. Cook is looking out for the bottom line and shareholders best interest he is proving to be an active, capable, smart CEO. With their current products and services Apple can and should reach 900 plus but they will need to innovate entirely new products which they will need to do if they want to be a long-term successful company for decades to come and be at the 1000 plus level.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    So true!!
    9 Nov 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  •  
    It's about time we see support for this stock. Even if growth and earnings slow, this stock is still attractive at these levels.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Gene Munster:

    Please do not say anything. I have a buy order for 1000 shares at $527. You can say anything after that and I do not care.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I would still bet we see sub-530 today at the close. It's a Friday. The stock usually closes lower into the weekend. Sell upside calls today; you'll collect the premium.
    9 Nov 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Shooting past 550 right now, although the last few fridays, you would have been correct
    9 Nov 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Hopefully you didn't get any takers :)
    9 Nov 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Monday Nov. 12 is the deadline for the dividend institutional investors are buying in and will do so on Monday as well, and Obama is speaking about a positive resolution to the fiscal cliff, with a compromise with Republicans to protect the economy. But strong companies like Apple who produce quality products, an iconic brand and have progressive social values i.e. under Tim Cook Apple is donating more to a variety of causes and higher responsible environmental stewardship will always be very profitable regardless of the macro environment. Profitable companies donating to causes is ethical and right but also very good for sales, and the companies image. Cook is smart, he is strategically setting up Apple for long-term success for decades to come, managing the brand successfully.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I was wrong - luckily! - but even so I would have sold 560+ range calls. I think we are weeks away from ever seeing 600 again. Jan-Feb is key.
    10 Nov 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The drop from the last two days were compounded by the election results and a number of dismayed investors simply exited the market (not just AAPL) in drove.
    10 Nov 2012, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Don't discount a santa claus rally. I have a feeling the Capital-gains selling may have subsided by then
    10 Nov 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  •  
    it'd be nice to see you wrong a few more times. :-)
    10 Nov 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Ms. Som.Suks: I think you have found a nice den to hibernate with your prediction of $600 by January, 1013.
    11 Nov 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Amazing the impact these voodoo clown analysts have on the stocks.... they can practically 'broadcast' their wish for their own advantage at will..... Unbelievable!

    THIS my friend is the reason for Apple tanking lately... forget about iPhone 5 shortages, margins BS, and other nonsense you've been hearing lately.... THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH APPLE!!!

    People just move the stock to their advantage! Tax rates are about to expire, let me dump my shares, and also while I'm at it, let's throw some pseudo bad news out there to crush the stock so I can pick it up even cheaper come Jan 1st.!
    9 Nov 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I wish I had this kind of power to manipulate stocks.

    I would be rich !
    9 Nov 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    You do, on newspaper articles with this smoke and mirrors fluff that is meant to scare inexperienced investors into selling, which is highly unethical in the comments section which inexperienced investors read write comments regarding the facts about Apple or other companies you own shares in. i.e. That Apple's financial fundamentals are excellent quoting a few, Tim Cook's is turning out to be very competent, that companies like Apple who are known for their high quality products that last will always have high sales as people know they will get their monies worth, that Apple is operating in a growth sector being the knowledge economy ect... The stock will appreciate for sure, particularly now that Cook is steadily proving to be capable however he will need to introduce entirely new products for Apple to remain a very successful long-term company but current refreshes will see significant growth in Apple for next few years with billions in sales, and high stock price with higher dividends.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I daytrade the weekly option alot of money there killed on puts yesterday
    9 Nov 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Congratulations! Let's hear about all of your trades, the good and the bad ones.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Long term EVERYTHING is wrong with AAPL. Anyways picking up some January calls today.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The financial media should do more trashing and bashing of AAPL to drive down AAPL even more so I can buy it cheap. More fear and loathing please! It feels soooo good to be able to buy AAPL this cheap!
    9 Nov 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  •  
    What about the inexperienced investors who may have lost alot of money who sold due to being scared of Apple tanking. Experienced long-term investors ignore smoke and mirrors spin media and stick to the fundamental financial facts, and hold the stock as who wouldn't who knows what they are doing. Apple needs to do more as some companies do to manage spin unsubstantiated neg. press, it is better for their stock price and the overall company to retain long-term investors and Cook's ability to retain staff motivated by high pay verses loving the job which motivates alot of people to, with stock options.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Love green opens, adding to puts.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  •  
    daytrade? so you see more downside today and days to come?
    9 Nov 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Swing trade. I think this will be sub 520 by thanksgiving.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    You can either average down or losers, or pyramid into winners. I prefer the latter.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  •  
    It is to Apple's advantage to have more long-term investors who don't try and create volatility in the stock for profit taking. Long-term investors are value investors, who buy on fundamentals but also because they like he company and have an interest in the sector. They are often active investors who contribute very valuable insight to the company which help it grow, innovate, market better whatever. I know a couple of long-term investors who work in tech and own Apple shares as they believe in the knowledge sector and America wish to see Apple as a long-term successful companies for years to come for intrinsic reasons as well as for their own personal profit. They write to Cook, investor relations ect.. Apple needs to mitigate neg. spin press with positive facts, this will help to keep the stock at its intrinsic worth based on financial fundamentals and growth potential which now should be approx. 800. The stock is undervalued.
    9 Nov 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The street is reversing the trend now. The latest news is that iPhone 5 supply is improving now and the wait time is shorter.
    10 Nov 2012, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  •  
    what reversal? premarket 538!!
    9 Nov 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  •  
    AAPL is a trading buy under $550.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I was way to early on my call buying. I started when it broke $600.00. Every other time has been a great buying opportunity. I only hope that the fiscal cliff/election is why we are seeing increased weakness in the stock. I got crushed but I own Jan and Feb calls so I do have some time for a rebound. I doubt I will break even on this trade. Might make back half.................
    9 Nov 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  •  
    In case someone hasn't noticed, Black Friday is in 2 weeks. Forget about "2-3 weeks before the phone is consistently available to consumers". The drop dead date for Apple to have all stores fully stocked with everything they sell is 11/23/2012. They can pull every piece of inventory from Europe, Asia and Latin America but they will be fully tanked on Black Friday or Tim Cook will be a Salvation Army Santa Clause.
    And BTW, In case anyone's forgotten, Apple sold over 3 million 4s phones last year on Black Friday.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  •  
    What does Black Friday have to do with anything?

    It's not like there will be super deals on Apple stuff. They're selling at regular retail prices.

    Walmart's $320 ipad2 won't singlehandedly boost apple's situation.
    9 Nov 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Shoppers buy everything on Black Friday, not just items on sale. As I mentioned, Apple sold 3 million iPhones last year on BF. Apple stores were mobbed. That was the beginning of their biggest end of year quarter ever.
    9 Nov 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Most likely the next meaningful data point.
    10 Nov 2012, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Name me another megacap stock with double-digit growth and a forward P/E less than 10! Sure it may go down another 3-5%. But at these levels, there's much more upside than downside. AAPL should now be less of a short term options play and more of a "buying the dips" and averaging in kind of play.

    This correction was definitely warranted, went up too much, too fast. Analyst overextended themselves and set unrealistic expectations. AAPL also got hit with key departures. On top of that it got hit with Macro head winds, markets dropped quite a bit from the top. It was a perfect storm, resulted in a near 25% drop...Now what? Are we really saying that we see a P/E of 8, 7? That would mean that margins would shrink to the 30's, sales growth would stall and AAPL wouldn't have any new product announcements in the foreseeable future.
    9 Nov 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I doubt any PUT buyers are stupid enough to risk $ at this level.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I buoght 10 520 Dec puts...
    9 Nov 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  •  
    not emburns. he's a paramid trader.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Already booked my the base of my profits, 140% average return.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Using profits to buy otm puts, use less capital for a greater return.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  •  
    let me know when you take your loss.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The Dec 520 puts dropped 3.5% by day's end so it's likely the loss is on paper there. Bad timing.
    10 Nov 2012, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I already took the +100% return on my puts, used proceeds to buy otm dec puts, closed Friday with a 7% return.
    11 Nov 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I am a retired professor and enjoy the game of finance, since it is legal and the bouquet is so sweet. Currently writing book on "The Pause" the non-impulsive brain characteristic button, that should be pushed to prevent disaster. Watching all markets each day, is purely a hobby, enjoy observing the emotional ups and downs of those beckoned by impulse.
    Have raised 5 children all are successful, my youngest is Global Corporate Manager for Verizon Communications. I am proud of him and what he knows. A huge success at 32, started with Verizon as a kiosk salesman, now 7 years later, bingo!
    Much to write about, but will add more, after the fiscal cliff, which could be a Dante Alegheri's play house.

    Comment: Regardless of the price, AAPL is still the same and a buy now and at any price twixt 555 and 520. I bought at 555, then sold at 688, turning a few hairs. NOW ALL CASH, WAITING FOR THE MOMENT OF PLEASURE.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The last time aapl had money flow levels this low was 5/18/12 ( $528.66 ). That signaled a trading bottom and the stock marched on to a new high. I was hoping for a capiltulation to that support and he higher aapl now goes without capitulation the more it could pull back.
    However that 5/18 low was in the face of an iPhone 5 and a mini possibly being released so there was some catalyst. Unfortunately, the hedges have turned negative on aapl and they believe that no new innovations will emerge. Cramer, a front piece for his hedge fund buddies behind the scenes( yes, they do pay him for his negative rants if he produces results ) is yapping about how Isaacson was told by Jobs that iTV was his only innovation in the works. In the minds of the powerful traders that move this stock, the record sales of the 5, the ipad4 and the mini mean nothing anymore. They are convinced that the Nexus 7 & 10 will eat into ipads dominance. They believe that the Samsung sIII and the Google phone will take millions of buyers away from the iphone 5. True or not, unless these guys get back on aapl, it will never see new highs again. I personally have tried the sIII, as well as the Nexus 7 and in my opinion, the iphone 5 and the ipad 3 are far better devices and still have no competition. I have spent a week with the mini and it is extraordinary. Apple just sent an email saying my 64gb wifi/cellular ipad 4 will ship in 5 days.
    Its seems that i can sell my perfect ipad 3 64gb wi-fi/cellular for $650-$710 on ebay ( although Ill hand it down to the kids). This resale value is incredible. In any event, while I beleive that the ipad and iphone are far superior to any other products on the market, hedge fund supprot for manipulating aapl has evaporated and any rally in the shares will result in the traders hammering down on the short side. Until aapl show these guys that they can innovate with Ives and without Steve, the hedges have had their fun with aapl \. I beleive aapl can still maintain their dominance as Ives is the closet reincarnation to Steve, but what do I know- I have to trade the aapl stock that is in front of me, not the aapl stock I want it to be.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  •  
    @$vix: "In the short run the market is a voting machine, in the long run it's a weighing machine." Benjamin Graham

    You should take a look at this, condensed 3 year results from Apple, and see what you think it weighs:
    http://bit.ly/PMCMKE
    11 Nov 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm a 5 year Apple long and product consumer and I am more than a little miffed that Apple did not have a handle on the complexities of assembling the iPhone5.

    Hopefully these problems will be resolved with the next iteration that they should be developing now in order to meet the next rollout Timmy.
    9 Nov 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm not an analyst so won't pretend to be, but I have been following the Seeking Alpha emails that pertain to AAPL because I've been a shareholder for awhile now and still think that Apple is a buy and/or hold as a long term stock. I didn't purchase at $50/share and again at $250 as a short term investment, so this slump is not all that concerning to me.. Although I certainly don't like to see it..

    Re: the delivery timeframes, I was pleasantly surprised to receive an email letting me know that the iPad I ordered would be shipping early (a week ahead of the mid-November timeframe that it originally stated)..Not sure if any iPhone 5 orders were also shipping early because I was one of the lucky ones who received it on the release date via pre-order, but hopefully so..

    Re: Black Friday, I avoid it other than for online shopping, but Apple does usually offer some discounts on Black Friday. Of course there won't be discounts on the newest product releases, but they 'might' offer a discount on a previous iPad or iPhone model and possibly something on the Macs.. You never know until the day arrives!

    Anyway, I enjoy many of the informative articles and comments that I read here, but have never posted since I'm no expert on trading, etc..
    9 Nov 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Just returned from my local Apple Store and they have a bunch of iPhone 5's in stock, across all carriers and specs. Apparently today was one of the first days that they've had significant inventory still available heading into closing for the day.

    On a related note all iPad Minis were sold out except for the 64GB Black.

    On an equally related note, the store was jammed as per usual
    10 Nov 2012, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I was the scared investor and sold all my AAPL thurs, but not at a loss and the day before the x date, now when do I get back in, soon I guess if it,s a buy
    11 Nov 2012, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The analyses come in all shapes and sizes, but IMO, these are all wish projections, based upon, prior buys, of course much higher than closing today. Whatever the price, AAPL has done one thing, which has caused much distress.
    All my grand kids wanted IPads for their birthdays. How could you say no to a grandchild? So, with the purchase of 5 iPads, I made a sizeable investment, reminiscent of the days of BETA MAX.
    Tomorrow is Friday folks, I am a man who likes fun, so tomorrow, shall not be fun, but maybe a few smirks.
    14 Dec 2012, 03:34 AM Reply Like
LATEST|
TODAY SO FAR|
YESTERDAY
Other date
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)

TECH ETFs IN FOCUS

Latest Tech Articles
More Latest Articles »