Oct New Home Sales: 368K vs. 387K expected, 369K prior (revised).

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GaltMachine Comments (920)
 
At this level of sales is there really a material difference between "hitting and missing" the numbers?

This is still an amazingly low number for this stage of the "expansion". For optimists, lots of room to grow.
28 Nov 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like

Playing the Ponzi Comments (139)
 
I agree that in terms of real numbers one would hope there is nothing but upside for the housing market from these still-depressed levels. But in terms of securities, ETF's like IYR (Real Estate) and ITB (Builders) have rallied hugely for the last year. They have already priced in a couple rounds of good news. Anything short of significant strength will disappoint what's priced into them, imho. I am short both since I expect less strength than apparently the market does.
28 Nov 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like

GaltMachine Comments (920)
 
Playing,

I always admire someone who puts their money behind their beliefs.
28 Nov 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like

bbro Comments (7839)
 
Completed new homes for sale...40,000...no recession has started unless this number has been above at least 92,000
28 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like

wigit5 Comments (2462)
 
bbro, I think the fallacy of most of your statements is they all look to the past for what the future will do...

the world changes bro, might want to be open to the idea that the past doesn't always show us the future.
28 Nov 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like

bbro Comments (7839)
 
"the past doesn't always show us the future."

Nothing is always...you might want to be open to study the past
28 Nov 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like

wigit5 Comments (2462)
 
So you'll concede it's possible to be in recession even though certain facts/numbers don't match those same numbers in past recessions?
28 Nov 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like

GaltMachine Comments (920)
 
bbro,

Not to disagree with you but this is a variant of that fallacy which begins with: "We have had a recession every time (blank) fell below 2X".

You are just formulating it differently.

As far as whether we can have a recession at these levels, well I guess we will find out within the next 6 months one way or another. With negative revisions to the prior month's data this does look really weak at this point.

If we indeed the peak for new homes in this cycle that would be a shocker.
28 Nov 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like

bbro Comments (7839)
 
Everything is odds....no absolutes...which is why I look at a compilation of
indicators...The final numbers I keep to myself....work to hard on it to give it away
28 Nov 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like

bbro Comments (7839)
 
Absolutely...in fact of this is not one of the indicators I follow for predictiveness...I follow 16 right now 2 are negative...
28 Nov 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like

nfultz1 Comments (54)
 
Do you have mix of those indicators that determines your overall view of the possibility of a recession? For example, 8 negative, 8 positive is hold or sell. Or is it a weighted system where some indicators are weighted heavier than others?
28 Nov 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like

Remyngton Comments (339)
 
4 more years
4 more years
28 Nov 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like

Todd Campbell Comments (244)
 
The 'miss' is a bit misleading. It still reflects a 17% lift from a year ago. Margin of error is big. Better to look at permits, up 29.8% from the prior year. Months supply is tight still at 4.8, down from 6.1 last year. Months on the market is also strong at 5.9, down from 8 in June and 7.2 last year.
28 Nov 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like

mickmars Comments (1085)
 
With mortgage rates at 3.25% (less than half what they were at peak) housing should be booming.
28 Nov 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like

Interesting Times Comments (3269)
 
Wow , what a shocker!! I wish they would tell us something we weren't expecting to hear !!
28 Nov 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like

june1234 Comments (920)
 
There is a huge and growing number of foreclosures banks are holding and they will not be able to hang on to them forever. I don't see that as a positive for home prices going forward when they resume releasing them unless the job picture changes dramatically which I haven't heard anyone suggest it will.Credit to buy a home remains tight, they are are correlated.

20% + of the building permits they keep bringing up are apartments. Big demand for those these days You cant compare the economic impact of a multi family complex with that of a new home development on a community. 1/3 of homes sold today are to investors. It is still very much a valuation driven market. According to one analyst the housing bubble bust removed $1.3 to $1.4 trillion from the US GDP. They are nowhere near that today. With rates as low as they are today housing market should be booming
28 Nov 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like

Interesting Times Comments (3269)
 
i posted somewhere else the banks were holding back inventory and no one believed me. I even have a banker for a relative. Let them think what they want!!
28 Nov 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like

Poor Texan Comments (3489)
 
Does anyone track demolitions? I would be interested in comparing the net addition or reduction to the housing stock compared to population variance. Detroit is often used as an example of a shrinking housing market (demolitions exceed new construction). Multigenerational households could have the same effect on the overall housing stock.
28 Nov 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like

7footMoose Comments (2242)
 
Weak job market. Tremendous Tax Code uncertainty. Slow to stalled economy. Leads to weak new and used home sales.
29 Nov 2012, 05:44 AM Reply Like