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Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading,"...
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Thursday, November 29, 2012, 5:45 PM ETInitial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James)
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Wait, wasn't there something relatively recently about a housing bubble & massive market crash, huge investments in bankrupt sovereign bonds among others? Oh and a truly mind bendingly large amount of our money to bail them all out?
Personally I like Goldman analysts. You can almost feel the greed like a physical presence in what they write. It's only a problem when two or more gang up and issue conflicting assessments. Best to step away at that point.
Check this
http://bit.ly/Ye4TaK
7000 lumia 920 sold out in 7 hours in Hong Kong, with a polulation of 7 millions only!
http://bit.ly/Yexk8p
5 December Nokia launches Lumia 920 on China Mobile. :)
PS. It is sad those misleading recommendation get adopted by the press so easily.
I got a question for you. Who owns USA mainstream media!? ;-)
Look at Goldman's recent downgrade of CLF, it seems they are very late to the sell recommendation, but are attempting to drive the stock down another 10% to establish a very attractive entry point for themselves if they get any institutions to dump stock.
It is anybody's guess, but there is opportunity for NOK and MSFT to keep the momentum via solid marketing efforts.
Or like how Goldman Sachs was telling the public that NOK will be worthless, while increasing their holdings in Q3 from 61M shares to 116M?
If you believe the investment houses are putting out this info to help the investing public, then you've learned nothing from 2007.
http://bit.ly/Tu1xsr
Notice the bars and the chains.
Google Trends for "Lumia":
http://bit.ly/X5W2WU
Notice the huge spike in interest after the announcement of Nokia's Lumia 920.
So the analyst is full of crap, just sayin.
Standard USB port, you can add a micro SD card, battery life is hunky dory so far, goes all day and night. No complaints at all. I like this phone very much. I think I,LL keep my 1000 NOK!
Even if the L920 is a complete, utter failure, Nokia would still hold relative value for someone who willing to look at the bigger picture.
Navteq alone is worth multiple billions - besides Google and Garmin, there is simply no other company with as complete and high-quality data as Navteq. AAPL bought data from TomTom and, well, it was quite frankly a joke.
Doh... Garmin uses NavTeq. :-P
It's interesting to see TomTom losing the majority of its customers after they changed from NavTeq to some other crap. (TeleAtlas)
And why has Apple joined forces with TomTom instead of any other company? Simple: TomTom maps might be the weakest of them all... but they are also the cheapest and we all know Apple goes to extremes to use the cheapest materials in their fabulous contraptions. Right?
The cheapest, the better... it's Apple's new motto.
http://bit.ly/Sxs49x
Interesting to note, that when you replace "Lumia 900" with "Galaxy S", the difference is ONLY as big as between Lumia 920 and Lumia 900, (40 vs 100).
When you replace "Galaxy S" with "HTC 8X", Lumia 920 is clear winner here, (100 vs 20)
The biggest winner is of course iPhone 5 (100 vs 5). However, the difference in Nokia vs Apple brand comparison is not big at all (65 vs 75). Also, Apple brand is showing down and Nokia is showing up
Deutche Bank has not probably understood that even if the numbers in stores were low, the demand is high. E.g. Swedish retailer explaines that the backlog is twice the amount of SGS3
http://bit.ly/116j3ZU
In Finland the carriers have told that the demand towards Lumia 920 is is bigger compared to 1st generation Lumias.
http://bit.ly/Sxs49D
I'm also interested in comparing with Twitter trends, anyone know of a site or url which can display that kind of stuff? The top google responses don't seem to provide that kind of info.
Sold out everywhere!
Its camera (PUREVIEW), city lens, maps, super sensitive screen, resolution, its image stabilization, low light performance, wireless charging, etc makes it just fabulous!
Thanks Nokia! Great JOB
BUY BUY BUY BUY
http://amzn.to/Yw5XFG
Kind of skewers the idea that they are flying off the shelves so fact Nokia can't keep up.
Your comment clearly shows that you have no idea about this market. This is not a discount but a subsidy, which is paid by AT&T. I really recommend you to stay away from this market before losing your hard working savings.
AT&T's subsidized price is $99. Amazon has it discounted $30 to $69. That's a discount on top of the subsidy.
Do your study better
The price of the Lumia 920 on Amazon reflects constantly on either
a) the other phone discounts on Amazon
b) the price of Lumia 920 on Walmart
Things that are in *high demand* don't get discounted, it's basic economics, companies want to maximize profits. If I'm going to sell 200 phones and I have the choice of selling them at $99 or selling them at $69, I'm going to sell them at $99. Some individual sellers might discount the product regardless of demand, but those sellers would quickly run out of stock and the market as a whole wouldn't support the discounted price. The fact that multiple vendors are discounting the phone is an even bigger indication that demand is not "excellent".
The $99 subsidized price is what Nokia and AT&T announced when they released the phone and was widely circulated http://bit.ly/Va04aV
It's possible there is great demand in Europe, but not here, if so I'm certain Nokia will shift more phones to Europe than the states. Either way, discounting is pretty clear the demand isn't high in the states.
1. When we make a decision we implicitly compare the costs and benefits of our choice on a business or a product.
2. Basic economics assumes that people act rationally and try to act so as to gain the most benefit for themselves when comparing cost.
3. The public responds to changes in price. So the public are more likely to buy something if it is cheaper. If a product becomes more costly, then there is an incentive to switch to other choices.
This is what I learned from my economics classes 14yrs ago. I'm sure little has changed and these key points are still applied in present business models. I have learned much from your comment and now aware where you stand.
All the best,
Turtle
*Examples of strong demand*
There is a wait list of 8-9 weeks for the Nexus 4, prices on secondary markets (eBay/ Amazon) are higher than the base price of the product.
http://bit.ly/Yxcobw
http://amzn.to/Vaap6F
*An example of dwindling demand affecting pricing*
The Samsung G3, it follows a classic product life-cycle, when it was introduced, pricing power was strong and it sold for the full $200 retail. Now six months out, demand is much weaker and they are discounting it to sell product.
An analyst explains the effect on iPad mini pricing over Black Friday: http://bit.ly/11p4srX
920s are selling for €650 ($830) in Europe.
( e.g. http://bit.ly/WywbBX)
You may want to think about stocking up on something which is clearly heavily subsidised for the US markets, you're getting a massive bargain that the rest of the world isn't.
My statement was meant solely for my investment in NOK and how they are penetrating the U.S. market.
Most innovative product - Captivate
Exclusive partnership w/ AT&T 2nd largest carrier
Discounted/Subsidized the price to penetrate market
Control supply / increase demand
Marketing / Advertising for enticement
Social Disruption
css1971 comment is spot on which applies to your " demand and the choices a retailer or manufacturer makes to maximize profits." Not only Europe --> China (southeast asia/asia continent) Middle East - Africa etcetera - etcetera. U.S. is just the icing on the cake and its looking very sweet for me as a shareholder/lumia 920 user.
$ 689,- for a black Lumia 920
http://amzn.to/11q7MD4
Not exaclty a discount.
Seems like as reasonable explanation as any for somewhat mixed signals.
Have you ever heard of campaigns in the basic economics? How about price wars?
If e.g. ALL SGS3 have discount from $150 to $0.01 during the weekend, would you keep your phone at $99? If your competitor sells the phone $20 cheaper, would you still keep it at $99? Which one sells more the same device, BestBuy at $150 or Walmart at $69?
If so, I'm glad youre not the one selling these devices.
The S3 is a bad example, it's getting towards the end of it's product life-cycle. Samsung is already pushing rumors of the next big thing. Did you see a lot of price wars on the S3 from day 1?
How much discounting was there on the Kinect during the first 3 months after it was released? The Nintendo Wii? The iPhone 5? The iPad mini?
Products that are slammed with demand rarely get discounted, and when they do get discounted people buy them up and resell them. Look at the Nexus 4, they are being scooped up and resold at a premium. You can't buy the N4 at Google's price without an 8 week wait.
Were there lines overnight waiting for the rarified products?
I'm not suggesting the 920 is doing poorly. Its entirely possible that demand is solid and Nokia is just doing a great job filling their channels. If that's the case, that's great news for Nokia.
My comment was pointed at the claim that there is massive demand and shortages on the 920. At least here in the states, that's clearly not the case.
"You lower the price and are the first one to run out of product. "
And if you remember at all what happened, everyone were complaining the demand which exceeded expectations. The ones with the low price were the first ones.
"Samsung is already pushing rumors of the next big thing."
Which does not affect to anything on today's pricing.
"The S3 is a bad example... Did you see a lot of price wars on the S3 from day 1"
Youre right. It is a bad example. You can not exactly compare 2 devices when the other one has huge market share already in the beginning. And while the device with huge market share is still a best seller, there is no reason to reflect a Lumia price to that one. Right?
5:04a ET November 29, 2012 (Dow Jones) MARKET TALK: Jyske Bank Lifts Nokia Target Price
1004 GMT [Dow Jones] Jyske Bank lifts its Nokia (NOK) target price to EUR2.90 from EUR2.40, citing increased optimism that the company will meet sales expectations for Lumia smartphones. Notes media reports that the Lumia 920 is sold out in Germany, as well as reports about a successful reception of the flagship device in the US. Moreover, Jyske's sales check indicates strong sales and advance orders in France, Spain and the UK. Maintains a buy rating. Shares trade 2.1% higher at EUR2.598
Or Ballmer "WP8 is selling 4x more than WP7.5 last year"
Wait I think Ballmer wouldn't lie to investors with a straight face..
Let´s remember that it is only a small portion of the hole company.
4G is here already and crowing fast.
http://onforb.es/X7E06C
Compared to RIMM, NOK is in my view in a way better position.
Disclosure : Long NOK, if the stock gone fall I am just keeping adding more worked so far.
Yep, I feel like NOK is way undervalued... and RIMM is still quite overvalued. RIMM is almost extinct and I don't see BB 10 changing anything. Why does the market give RIMM a higher valuation than NOK? Makes no sense to me.
here is lastest NOKIA 920 google trend
i hate to say it buy Dennis maybe right, Why would amazon discount with such high demand-- however no one buys anything off Amazon untils it a deal, isnt that there niche to make things cheaper? undercut everyone else??? please your thoughts
Further, if the price is the same as AT&T, why should people buy from Amazon or Walmart when they can buy from AT&T. Especially if the wait time to get the phone is the same? They can probably charge the same price if the wait time is shorter, which I do not think is the case (can be wrong on this). Further, if Amazon holds out and not give discount, and Walmart decides to give the $30 discounts, Amazon would lose the sales to Walmart. The reason why AAPL is able to keep the iPhone undiscounted is by controlling the distribution of the subsidized contracts. You can only get the iPhone with contract price from AAPL store or ATT/Verizon etc...(believe this is still the case).
In short, the current available stock of Lumia phones may be short versus current demand (hence the required wait). But when compared to what they can produce in the future, obviously you can have infinite supply. And this is the case here. You are locking in current demand and meet them with future supply. Those who must have the phone now can go on craiglists or eBay and last I check they are only available off contract and more expensive than price charge by AT&T (which is $450).
This is simply not true. Third party retailers such as Best Buy offer the exact same phones and pricing as AT&T stores. We bought an iphone 5 (subsidized by AT&T) at Best Buy and the experience was actually much better than AT&T with no problems. Would have bought my Lumia 920 at Best Buy but they did not yet have them in stock.
(for those who speak Dutch ;) )
http://bit.ly/TqL9cr
AAPL is the first partner of Qualcomm for these chips, so expect AAPL to be served first.
Without chips, no phones. Exactly what is happening with Lumia 920: high demand, no phones. Nice SCM!
The iPhone is running a different cpu (their own A6 chip).
The HTC x8 uses the same cpu (snapdragon) as the Lumia 920.
In Canada RIM phones werem ostly discounted to $0 -$99 when RIM phones were still popular
http://seekingalpha.co...
I bought VRTX around $30, when these guys were Downgrading the Stock. I've sold it around $54 when they started Upgrading VRTX to price targets well over $80. GS even said it would go up to $100.
Guess what? After a single day when it traded around $64, it never got there again... and now it's back to $40.
This is just an example. This year alone, I had similar experiences with SDRL and GOOG.
As for saving from restructuring: there is a long way to go. 38,000 employees generate EUR 3.3bn sales in smartphone div. AAPL generate $30bn with 30,000 employees (including all their activities though). More lay-offs (ie more costs) are coming in 2013.
A clear NOK will be not before Q3/Q4 2013