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Wednesday, Feb 23
2011, 6:25 PM
It's not just about Libya, Brett Arends writes. Everyone had become way too bullish and way too...
It's not just about Libya
, Brett Arends writes. Everyone had become
way too bullish
and way too complacent. That's why the market downturn is
more than just a blip
, and caution is the wisest course now.
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Yes, it is not about Libya. It is about Saudi. If this can happen in Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, and Bahrain, KSA is next. This is the fuel behind oil futures. When the protests increase in Riyadh, we could see oil to go $150/barrel or more...
23 Feb 2011, 08:29 PM
If Saudi Arabia goes up then we'll see a stampede. But while I think things are a little pricey given the combination of earnings and risk, I don't think we are way overpriced.
Given how far the market has moved since the summer, it seems natural that some event would lead to a sell-off as folks take profits in the face of greater risks.
If your planning to buy the dips, I think I'd wait as the potential for a big 10-20 dip is there with all the political upheaval we see.
23 Feb 2011, 09:25 PM
So ridiculous. Really is this how you invest?
No perspective. No Commonsense Absolutely none. There is always risk it never goes away. Investing is about the long game.
The Emerging Global Growth story remains intact - no change there and oil would need to be sustainably up around $130 to hurt it.
The US growth story remains intact. And even better - last week I thought that we had seen the last off the QE. Now with this - I think QE3 is back on the table.
Japan and Europe very good value.
I bought my first stock in 1974 at the age of 13.
Stocks go up and down and then up again.
If you have lived more than 25 years you understand this. I love it when I see breathless 20 and 30 somethings opining about the future. If you remember the first and then the second oil shock, the inflation and the stagflation and Iran and the '80's recession and lived and invested through that - and then the 1987 crash - which was a real crash - check it out - I was 100% invested on that day - and then the 90's recession and then Y2K then 9/11 and the early 2000's recession and the Great Recession. And you saw your net worth increase through all of this turmoil then excuse me but yes I am complacent and yawn in 5 years this will be well in the rear view mirror - like all of that.
If you are alive and investing and still in the game today then you have lived a fortunate life and believe me the best is coming. No guarantees - there will be downs and ups but look at the record - unless you think this time its different - it will be more up than down.
23 Feb 2011, 09:47 PM
This is how I invest: I buy whatever "story" Wall Street is pushing and then hope Bernanke saves me by inflating the stock market with the pretext of generating employment.
Not really. But I know many people who use this "strategy." They also charge 1.5-2% for their services. The money? It belongs to someone else, naturally.
"believe me the best is coming"
I teach my kids never to trust any argument beginning with "believe/trust me"
23 Feb 2011, 11:02 PM
It's my belief that the price oil since I've been alive is a function of how many people you have to pay to get it. It's the foundation of society for many countries. It's not so much about the demand or supply as it is about how many people can be sustained on it's production.
In other words, as leaders fall in the middle east the LESS we owe them. We can get the oil cheaper by giving them incense, booze and murr. And find someone else to prop up. Meanwhile oil some day goes to $15, back when the barrel cost more to make than the oil was worth in them.
23 Feb 2011, 11:08 PM
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