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Calendar Q4 iPad estimates need to come down, argues Mizuho's Abhey Lamba, in a note that may...
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Friday, December 7, 2012, 5:35 PM ETCalendar Q4 iPad estimates need to come down, argues Mizuho's Abhey Lamba, in a note that may have contributed to the Apple (AAPL -1.2%) selloff. Citing "lackluster demand" for the regular iPad as the Mini cannibalizes sales, Lamba is forecasting FQ1 iPad sales of 20M and revenue "slightly below $10B" vs. a consensus of 25M and $11B. He also thinks H-P's (HPQ) Jan. quarter PC sales forecasts could be too high by $1B, and Dell's (DELL) FY14 PC forecasts by $3B. (IDC tablet forecast)
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This news story has 17 comments:
Proselytizing that "iPad estimates need to come down" is way out of line, and basically caters to those who are hoping to see Apple's iPads crash and burn, for whatever reason.
Then when the January 2013 Q1 financial report is super good, these same "know-nothings" will simply report that Apple got a bit lucky and will not be able to continue such financials for the 2nd Qtr.
1) Sentiment is in the extreme gloom & doom phase right now, and continues to get worst every day, the overcrowded long side has jumped ship
2) Heavy volume & volatile swings intraday and daily, indicates a good possibility of a major bottom being formed around this level
3) 2 very successful retests so far showing solid buying interest and accumulation
4) CNBC dummies ripping AAPL and having bearish view, bears gloating more and more, TA/chart nerds too obsessed and convinced with useless death cross and over relying on MA's etc. to proclaim the death of AAPL
5) Poor reasons and judgment that should never be used in making investment decisions are punishing the stock price. Clearly, hedge fund redemptions and liquidations for poor performance or tax related reasons are putting pressure on the stock, distorting the true market value (fair value atm s/b 570-580 IMO, until earning judgment)
6) Price action and trades I'm seeing is very strong interest from big money accumulating shares in low 500s and making huge, multi-mil dollar bets on AAPL recovery in the coming months while the dumb money continues to sell
I am still bearish/skeptical of AAPL in the long term until proven otherwise, but for now I am seeing more bullish signs from the market at least for the short term.
AAPL may break 500 but chances of that are slim, even so it will dip and quickly get back above 500 IMO, the dumb money stops are all around 500, thinking end of the world is near once the market makers trip that number, dumb money continues to buy put protection in the 400s, everyone in the world eyeing the gap from 400 etc. i will buy more if it gets there and thank the dumb money later.
Don't think I have heard someone say they plan to buy a kindle fire in a long time. Walk down n aile of a plane and what do you see? Apple tablets
I had the opportunity to get the mini, but prefer the size of the new one with retina display,which I just got.
Some of us prefer a larger screen.
I am thinking of buying a tablet. I think IPAD retina display would be best or I will buy the chrome book and do the cheap option
I think the increase in sales should be moderated by competition, but, in US everybody wants the best... So, in the end, I am in the bullish camp....
In a few years, these products will be commoditized.. . So, long term AAPL will disappoint due to theory of large numbers....
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