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Calendar Q4 iPad estimates need to come down, argues Mizuho's Abhey Lamba, in a note that may...

  • Friday, December 7, 2012, 5:35 PM ET
    Calendar Q4 iPad estimates need to come down, argues Mizuho's Abhey Lamba, in a note that may have contributed to the Apple (AAPL -1.2%) selloff. Citing "lackluster demand" for the regular iPad as the Mini cannibalizes sales, Lamba is forecasting FQ1 iPad sales of 20M and revenue "slightly below $10B" vs. a consensus of 25M and $11B. He also thinks H-P's (HPQ) Jan. quarter PC sales forecasts could be too high by $1B, and Dell's (DELL) FY14 PC forecasts by $3B. (IDC tablet forecast)
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This news story has 17 comments:

  • 20mm with the mini would be a disaster! 7-8mm minis would leave iPad sales at 12-13mm for the 2 and the Retina! I don't buy that logic.
    7 Dec 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • I agree. This author completely misreads the Lamba and IDC articles. If you read the IDC article it INCREASES overall tablets to a greater degree than the slight decrease in the I Pad share. So on that issue there will be a higher, not lower sale of I pads and I pad minis. Also, the Lamba forecast is not clear if he is talking about all I pads including the mini or just I pads. Finally a "canibilatazion" of the I pad by the mini is not all bad. In fact there is a higher margin on the mini according to the folks who took the mini apart and costed out the components.
    9 Dec 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Frankly, we don't know what kind of "demand" there is on the large iPad or the iPad Mini, except by looking at how far back orders are. In the case of the large iPad, there is no wait time. In the case of the iPad Mini, wait times just dropped from 2 weeks to 1 week (as of yesterday). Does this represent a "cannibalizing" of the large iPad or simply Apple's finally getting in front of demand? Again, we don't know.

    Proselytizing that "iPad estimates need to come down" is way out of line, and basically caters to those who are hoping to see Apple's iPads crash and burn, for whatever reason.
    7 Dec 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Never heard of this analyst. Mere noise.
    7 Dec 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • The Apple Store at the 2nd biggest Mall in USA, where I recently bought an IPAD, was the busiest store in the Mall (per size of store) by far. Apple Staff told me $ sales are up compared to last year. There was no shortage of customers. But they didn't make it sound like it was astounding growth rate as in some prior years. Still they are doing well, and the stock's very reasonably priced now, at a PE Ratio of half its growth rate. Its now a Buy n Hold Stock. The hot money's mostly out of it. Long-term even in few months, this stock should be higher.
    7 Dec 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Poor AAPL shareholders - "know-nothings" continue to downgrade estimates of quarterly and periodic growth of sales of Apple products and when these reports are proven wrong, the "know-nothings" simply wash, rinse and report the same info for the next period.

    Then when the January 2013 Q1 financial report is super good, these same "know-nothings" will simply report that Apple got a bit lucky and will not be able to continue such financials for the 2nd Qtr.
    7 Dec 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • I was bearish on AAPL the company and the stock for many reasons since the fall earning, but since yesterday I have changed my stance and now I'm leaning towards slightly bullish in the short term, even started to go long yesterday... for a few reasons:

    1) Sentiment is in the extreme gloom & doom phase right now, and continues to get worst every day, the overcrowded long side has jumped ship
    2) Heavy volume & volatile swings intraday and daily, indicates a good possibility of a major bottom being formed around this level
    3) 2 very successful retests so far showing solid buying interest and accumulation
    4) CNBC dummies ripping AAPL and having bearish view, bears gloating more and more, TA/chart nerds too obsessed and convinced with useless death cross and over relying on MA's etc. to proclaim the death of AAPL
    5) Poor reasons and judgment that should never be used in making investment decisions are punishing the stock price. Clearly, hedge fund redemptions and liquidations for poor performance or tax related reasons are putting pressure on the stock, distorting the true market value (fair value atm s/b 570-580 IMO, until earning judgment)
    6) Price action and trades I'm seeing is very strong interest from big money accumulating shares in low 500s and making huge, multi-mil dollar bets on AAPL recovery in the coming months while the dumb money continues to sell

    I am still bearish/skeptical of AAPL in the long term until proven otherwise, but for now I am seeing more bullish signs from the market at least for the short term.

    AAPL may break 500 but chances of that are slim, even so it will dip and quickly get back above 500 IMO, the dumb money stops are all around 500, thinking end of the world is near once the market makers trip that number, dumb money continues to buy put protection in the 400s, everyone in the world eyeing the gap from 400 etc. i will buy more if it gets there and thank the dumb money later.
    7 Dec 2012, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • I just bought the new ipd4. Love retina display and Siri. Anecdotally, support staff in my law office are buying minis for their grand kids for Christmas.

    Don't think I have heard someone say they plan to buy a kindle fire in a long time. Walk down n aile of a plane and what do you see? Apple tablets
    8 Dec 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • I have the first ipad and love it to the point of addiction.
    I had the opportunity to get the mini, but prefer the size of the new one with retina display,which I just got.
    Some of us prefer a larger screen.
    8 Dec 2012, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • Predictions by me, you and various analysts are best guess estimates.
    I am thinking of buying a tablet. I think IPAD retina display would be best or I will buy the chrome book and do the cheap option

    I think the increase in sales should be moderated by competition, but, in US everybody wants the best... So, in the end, I am in the bullish camp....
    In a few years, these products will be commoditized.. . So, long term AAPL will disappoint due to theory of large numbers....
    
    8 Dec 2012, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • I hear people complain about the mini display, but mostly seems to be people who picked it up for 2 minutes and expect it to be retina, or people who just look at the specs and complain. My suggestion is, buy it and give it a try for a couple weeks. They are easy enough to return or eBay and recoup your cost.
    8 Dec 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • In the linked Barron's article, he doesn't give a reason why he believes iPad sales would be off that much. Be nice to know what he is seeing. 45mm iPhones and 20mm iPads brings Apple's guidance into question. If ATD is accurate that the mix is moving toward cheaper iPhones then that ASP is coming down, too. They would need to do well in other areas. I would hate to see what would happen if Apple has to warn.
    8 Dec 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • This is nonsense. Who is this self-appointed authority making whimsical predictions, on what? Please don't waste our time with these things. We come here for sound factual information to make solid investments.
    8 Dec 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • So, who are these Mizuho's guy. What do they do and are they in touch with other Analysts. I believe, accepting that Ipad will be seeing reduction in sales but the ipad minis - where are their sales getting recorded, does not the Analyst feel that the sales of ipad minis have to be added to the revenues? I hope that Mizuho's following is not that great but the market has already adjusted for this factors.
    8 Dec 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • 4 points: (1) 19 analysts can be optimistic about almost anything and 1 can be pessimistic and who does the media take note of? (2) Lowered analyst expectations only benefit investors as the beat becomes that much stronger. (3) What is his basis for concluding that there's "lackluster demand" beyond speculation? (4) The iPad Mini is just a smaller iPad2 w/o retina display at a more attractive price point. Only the full sized iPad has retina display. The iPad mini is cannibalizing Kindle Fire, Microsoft Surface and the Google product. I contend that the vast majority of mini buyers wouldn't have been buying the full-sized iPad in the first place.
    9 Dec 2012, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • I suggest to Apple, that in March of next year, they should lower the price of the existing IPAD Mini to $279, and introduce a Retina Display Version for $349.
    9 Dec 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • NEWS out: P C Magazine just named the new I mac PC of the year. this is the last paragraph:

    With its beautiful design and quality fabrication, the iMac 27-inch (Late 2012) is the best all-in-one desktop we've ever seen, with a look and feel that manufacturers will be trying to replicate for years. It's not without a few frustrations, like the lack of height adjustment and a price that will give some shoppers a stroke, but there's no denying that the iMac we reviewed—the top spec'ed model of Apple's best configuration—is worth every penny. As a result, it replaces the Dell XPS One 27 as our high-end all-in-one desktop Editors' Choice.
    9 Dec 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
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