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U.S. coal consumption will drop 14% from 2011-2017, the International Energy Agency forecasts,...

  • Tuesday, December 18, 2012, 5:25 AM ET
    U.S. coal consumption will drop 14% from 2011-2017, the International Energy Agency forecasts, due to the shale gas revolution prompting power companies to abandon coal. Overseas, the picture is totally different, with coal demand booming in China, India and other emerging markets. The problem for U.S. producers is that international prices are low. The IEA predicts restructuring for the sector and possible job losses.
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This news story has 17 comments:

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    Coal’s share of global energy mix to continue rising, with coal closing in on oil as world’s top energy source by 2017
    18 Dec 2012, 06:30 AM Reply Like
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    It is unfortunate to see this study from EIA. They assume no gassification or carbon capture being available.

    But Duke energy last month rolled out largest coal gassification based plant; costing 3B. More are being planned. Being office desk holder and people doing actual research, there is a huge gap. Market is smart to not rely on NG which is total chaos.
    18 Dec 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
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    If you read the link carefully, it sounds bullish for coal. This summary is carefully crafted to sound negative. It also ignores the fact that ANR will provide 16MT coal to Adams Fork Plant that will generate gasoline from coal (cost is $2 per gallon). ACI is doing the same.
    18 Dec 2012, 06:33 AM Reply Like
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    The question for coal bulls is whether there is room for the price of the commodity to increase, even in the face of increasing global consumption ex-US.

    I don't think anyone is going to argue against coal demand growth specifically. Oil is commiting massive global suicide, it's priced out of any consideration to any other global energy source and is being usurped everywhere, including by coal.

    The other question coals bulls should ask themselves is whether coal will maintain this trajectory with regard to the absolutely massive amounts of NG production coming online over the next 5 years, although coal, like the oil it is primarily displacing, has a significant advantage in that NG requires pretty highly developed and costly infrastructure to displace it.
    18 Dec 2012, 06:57 AM Reply Like
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    First NG is in downward trajectory. EPA planning major regulations over fracking.
    18 Dec 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
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    First, no, you're wrong, and vis a vis EPA, that's pure conjecture and has no basis in reality.

    Fracking was just re-initiated in the UK within the last week, and adds to global fracking/shale exploration of immense proportions (Israel, Mozambique, Indonesia, Australia, etc etc).
    18 Dec 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
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    Clearly you are not following news. 64% of current administration including republications want review of all fracking methods including forced disclosure of chemicals used for fracking. Currently, its hidden under a clause of trade secret. Canada banned all fracking. Many new US states are enforcing new regulations on fracking.
    18 Dec 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
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    Good luck trading on that thesis. I'll be on the other side, taking your money.
    18 Dec 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
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    HoldandBuy: Check your facts. Canada has not, nor is there any talk of banning fracking. One province, Quebec, (like a state for those American educated folks) has rescinded leases to certain companies until further review of fracking has been completed.
    18 Dec 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
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    i do not think even the miss-guided politicians will kill fracking and the energy and jobs it creates w/ it. Some useful guidelines and regs will actually help industry and appease folks. But then again we're talking about politicians....i take it all back
    18 Dec 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
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    If you had polled a random group of Wall St. observers, I guarantee they would have projected a greater decline than 14% over the course of 6 years. Practically flat, especially compared to international demand.
    18 Dec 2012, 07:24 AM Reply Like
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    It is saying ANR may be bought out. Remember we were once 100 bucks. Price of coal will rise. Natural gas price will rise also. Nothing stays low forever.
    18 Dec 2012, 07:36 AM Reply Like
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    Who is saying ANR will be bought out?
    18 Dec 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I like JRCC here... So undervalued its disgusting!
    18 Dec 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
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    What would be disgusting is seeing JRCC taking the easy way out of it's debt problems by declaring bankruptcy. It's has become quite a fashionable thing to do in America.
    18 Dec 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
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    Looks like the upside run in coal equities is still happening, at this point anyway. But early 2013 might be a different story.
    18 Dec 2012, 05:48 PM Reply Like
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    BTU is by far the best play for the high world coal demand.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:05 AM Reply Like
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