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The Fed is likely to stick with ZIRP through 2018, says David Rosenberg, in his chart-filled...
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Friday, December 21, 2012, 3:00 PM ETThe Fed is likely to stick with ZIRP through 2018, says David Rosenberg, in his chart-filled outlook for 2013. He's guardedly bullish on stocks, not because earnings or the economy are set to power forward, but because real interest rates are set to remain negative for so long.
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Info is info regardless of source. You should click the link. It's interesting.
stuff in his studies ( especially 2002 to 2007)...he was spot on for the upcoming crisis in 2008 and conversely he has committed the error of staying married to his
ideas since then...
P.S. Anybody who shows you a Debt/GDP chart should be required to show you a Debt to Assets and a Debt Service to GDP chart....
I also have been following him since 2008 which depending upon how you look at it has been both a massive success and a failure if you followed his advice all along.
He advocated gold/silver for a long time, corporate debt, high-yield, commodities, treasuries and some other interesting stuff all of which have performed massively well since the meltdown.
However he was clearly wrong on the S&P from 2009-2010 (late) before becoming constructive on what he calls SIRP (Safety and Income at a Reasonable Price) which was a positive call on the defensive sectors with high dividend yields. Overall for about a 1 1/2 years he has been pretty positive on select US equities.
For me the bond call has been a miraculous payoff especially considering that it was very contrarian all along the way from a 4% plus 10 yr to the current level. No one with the exception of Rosie, Hussman, Shilling, and a few others made this type of bold call.
Everybody was expecting rates to rise so if you believe that you would have missed this run.
Now however the domestic bond run on price appreciation is dead . If we get strong growth then the short will be the winning trade of this next cycle.
I have always enjoyed our conversations.
Good luck. Merry Christmas.
Raise interest rates to 2.5%.
Go in front of Congress and tell the American public the truth. Congress has spent this country into oblivion. They are a bunch of gutless wonders. The deficit must be drastically reduced and public spending has to be deeply cut.
Until then we really don't need to hear any more blathering from the Fed chair.
Why don't you check the continuing drop outs in the overall labor participation rate if you really want to know what is happening with the unemployment rate. And do explain why the overall labor participation rate is the lowest it has been in decades .... certainly has nothing to do with zero interest rates.
If anything there has been an increase in the number of boomers moving to disability in their 50's as an early retirement program.
Very, very few Boomers are retiring.
You have been trotting out anti-Boomer sentiment for fifteen years now, at which point Boomers were aged 33-51.
As anyone NOT biased towards 1/3 of the US population - and probably 1/2 of activist voters - knows:
Boomers are the best-educated generation in American history, with a such a high proportion of professionals, it will probably never be duplicated by future generations.
Boomers are the vast majority of small business owners.
Boomers are the vast majority of members of Congress and the executive branch, both on the national and state levels. (The judicial branch is still crowded with those in Boomers' parents' generations.)
Boomers occupy the majority of upper management positions across all industry sectors, even tech.
Boomers are in the majority among money managers, wealth managers, and family office managers.
Boomers - and Boomers' parents - are still the vast majority of active investors - and probably active traders.
Issue is when the Mexicans left that hole was filled by US citzens working under the radar. There is a large labor underground rising which will soon eclipse the above ground labor.
http://1.usa.gov/Tkel6K
http://bit.ly/VfBhpw
It seems quite a few people have forgotten what their grandparents learned the hard way. Folks, we are NOT on a gold std - since 1933. Didn't you notice?
There is a difference between a fiat CURRENCY ISSUER and the CURRENCY USERS. A currency ISSUER manages a real-goods/capabilities budget, and uses fiat currency entirely for internal bookkeeping (no different than how a math teacher has a class utilize numerals). Currency USERS utilize that currency as an accurate proxy for their local real-goods/capabilities budgets (and can forget how fiat currency works, if not educated). It's not the buying power of a given dollar you need to worry about, it's your net income, your net savings and your economy's net liquidity as endless options requiring liquidity present.
For a country to GROW it's economy, the fiat currency supply (aka, liquidity) absolutely must grow constantly. What does FIAT mean? It means we (aka, our Treasury Dept, aka, our Gov) does not GET fiat from anywhere. Taxes are irrelevant to the issuer of a fiat currency. "Revenue" has no meaning to a fiat currency issuer - only inflation/deflation, and REAL economic growth.
see page 35 here
Taxes for Revenue are Obsolete (it's a nice discussion, from 1944)
http://bit.ly/TeYZOy
Anyone reading these links above - from the folks who guided us off the gold std and through the mind-boggling expansion of WWII - will get a chance to absorb what your grandparents knew, and hence adjust your perspective accordingly.
Everything about monetarism conflates our fiat-std with the gold-std paradigm. Reality is that nearly everything about fiat currency is SUPPOSED to float freely. Our real race is to use that policy agility to continuously expand national goals, grow capabilities, maximize employment, and minimize our Output Gap. We can make things ridiculously easy in this country by working together (teamwork?), or decline by going back to the European model of trying to sequester "money" from our neighbors.
How is it that we can win WWII, put a man on the moon, and create computers, cell phones & the internet ... yet we can't grasp something as simple as a spread-sheet-based fiat currency system?
Ben Franklin did.
“Benjamin Franklin And the Birth of a Paper Money Economy”
http://bit.ly/TmzrQc
Without understanding context, we end up with local tactics masquerading as national goals, policies and tactics.
How the hell are you supposed to invest wisely on a personal level, while the entire ship is sinking? That's like collecting wood by drilling and hoarding plugs from the hull of your cruise ship. We have to co-invest in both micro- and macro-economics, which means investing in our platform of democracy, not just hoarding liquidity units.