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"If people used to buy PCs every four years and are now buying them every five years, that could...

  • Monday, December 24, 2012, 3:02 PM ET
    "If people used to buy PCs every four years and are now buying them every five years, that could lower PC sales by 20 percent over time," says Bernstein's Tony Sacconaghi, quoted in an NYT column discussing the lukewarm reception for Windows 8, which arrived as tablets were already pushing out replacement PC purchases. NPD believes U.S. retail Windows PC sales fell 13% Y/Y from the time of the Win. 8 launch to the first week of December, though that's better than a late-November estimate.
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This news story has 12 comments:

  •  
    He knows his maths doesn't he? :)
    "If people used to buy PCs every four years and are now buying them every five years, that could lower PC sales by 20 percent over time,"
    24 Dec 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    But if there are twice as many people who never before bought a PC during that time period the geometric expansion of PC sales will certainly continue.
    25 Dec 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    PC and laptop quality has improved exponentially. In fact all electronics has seen an improvement where components don't fail as often due to turbulance in electricity or ESD. Hardware is also so much more powerful, and so a consumer is only going to replace equipment when they feel the impact in performance or the equipment goes bad. That is not happening. There are also a smaller fraction of people without PCs. So expect a reduction in PC sales.

    Until the market is ready for touch software, which will bring a spike in sales of PCs with touchscreen capabilities. For this to happen, softwares have to be rewritten with touch capability. Give this another 8 to 24 months. So expect a gradual growth from 2013 to 2015......and then prepare for a gradual change to PCs with voice recognition capabilities. This will not impact hardware, just software upgrades.
    24 Dec 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    So is this why MSFT, DELL, HPQ and other continue to sell-off??
    24 Dec 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I have Vista on my over 5 year old emachines desktop. Have had no problems. I have 7 on my HP laptop. (has more power than my desktop). When I do get a new desktop the last thing I want is Windows 8. And the very last thing I want is a touch screen. I am NOT going to be sitting @ my desk watching the market on my TD Ameritrade streamer and have to reach up and touch a monitor screen who knows how many times a day. (even on the desktop)
    24 Dec 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yup, saturation point for the PC and laptop users.
    24 Dec 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Most people in the world have never used a computer. If some time in the future with 100 times more people who have ever tasted a Coca Cola than have used a PC, the market saturation has a long way to go. Many people my age and a bit older in the U.S. have never used a PC. Young people today are getting a greater proportion of tablets and PCs than toys for Christmas.
    25 Dec 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "Most people in the world have never used a computer. "

    Now I understand how Lenovo grows, at the entry point for PCs in the developing world.
    25 Dec 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Unfortunately the WIN 8 advertising brought his part to the declining PC/Notebook sales. I and other potential customers are not interested on " I wanna be..." I need to know what WIN 8 really would be on improvement! So far my next Laptop will have WIN 7. Anyhow, I like the advertising song very much.
    25 Dec 2012, 03:12 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I think some components need to be upgraded for specific reasons, but there is no need to buy a full PC every four years.

    Gamers, for instance, should be purchasing the latest Graphics cards every 2 years or so as Games get more sophisticated.

    But buying a new Desktop PC every 4 years? No, no need to do that anymore unless you really want to upgrade all of the components at the same time.

    Also, older desktops can buy used or heavily discounted or slightly older components that are brand new. A great advantage versus buying a laptop or tablet which you cant upgrade the components.

    So it makes sense whole Desktop PCs are declining, but am curious to know how components are selling to the retail consumers.
    25 Dec 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    In the business environment PCs will continue to be replaced every 3 to 5 years. First of all, the accountants make you depreciate them over 3 years anyway. Secondly, so many PCs in the business environment are involved in rendering customer service that no one can afford for their people to have glitchy machines. Moreover, the IT security staff knows that older machines are more vulnerable, so they also want them replaced regularly. Accordingly, there are practical limits to just how long you can stretch out PC replacement in the business environment. So you guys can keep that 5 year old computer going in your basement, but that ain't gonna happen in the business environment. Just FYI.
    26 Dec 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I agree that many businesses want to increase their productivity by replacing their desktop computers.

    I was mostly referring to individual customers that buy retail, not bulk.

    There is a large volume of GPUs that are sold to retail consumers that are the majority gamers.
    27 Dec 2012, 03:55 AM Reply Like
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