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The fiscal cliff deal will probably ensure that the U.S. avoids recession but it will also help...

  • Tuesday, January 1, 10:00 AM ET
    The fiscal cliff deal will probably ensure that the U.S. avoids recession but it will also help cut GDP growth to 1% in Q1 2013 from 3.1% Q3 2012, JPMorgan and BofA economists forecast. "It’s going to definitely present a headwind for the economy," says JPM's Michael Feroli. "We’re looking for a downdraft in growth in the first half of the year, with the economy coming back in the second."
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This news story has 40 comments:

  •  
    these geniuses in Washington...
    1 Jan, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The "deal" calls for $43 in new taxes for every $1 ( yep one dollar) in spending cuts. What a sellout by the senate republicans.

    One can only hope the house republicans have more balls and kill this pathetic sellout.
    1 Jan, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  •  
    there aren't many people on the hill willing to do anything brave. Rand Paul is the voice of resin for the time being, with a couple others. This is all just one big joke.
    1 Jan, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Who would have thought MoveOn and Wyo would be in agreement??
    1 Jan, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  •  
    "...there aren't many people on the hill willing to do anything brave..."

    Mr. wyostocks. I must protest! It is "...there aren't many people on the Hill (see that?) willing to do anything brave...

    Now it's my turn: there aren't many people on the hill willing to do anything brave.
    1 Jan, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    tony
    Not my quote. Can't take any credit.
    1 Jan, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  •  
    sorry
    1 Jan, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Love it... the left and right are ticked off..
    1 Jan, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  •  
    It must be a relatively fair deal, then. Finally, some compromise! Who would have thought that behind that smile and often assinine remarks Biden could have brokered this deal? Hats off!
    1 Jan, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  •  
    bbro: "...the left and the right are ticked off..."

    No, only the Right is ticked off (did you notice? the "Right?" Capital letters and all that?

    The left has class warfare, Chomsky 101 fading before them. After all, how many union pensions can be paid for?

    In the real world...gold and silver look mighty good.
    1 Jan, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Fair enough...moonbats and wingnuts
    1 Jan, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Fooled you. It's far more likely Joe is at least paying someone far smarter then he is. They just can't fake things when he is live.
    1 Jan, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Make no mistake, Mr. bros is not some enchanted being beyond politics--he's a man of the left (or if his present gender/neutral being turns out to be a woman), then...he's a man/womenfavored-species of the left (not hard to find those) a moderate compromiser that..."gets things done" (sorry bros but your side started it and your side doesn't know how much fun our side can make of it once we get started.

    So says the Washington Post but we have to...

    rail against Obamaphones.

    "The working class wonders why they don't have Obamaphones..."


    This class-warfare stuff is fun.
    1 Jan, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    What is not elaborated on is what the forecasts show long term partially as a result of the deal....
    1 Jan, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  •  
    bbro, would you care to elaborate?
    1 Jan, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    "The expansion will strengthen later in the year as the housing market continues to rebound, they forecast."

    And on into 2014....
    1 Jan, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  •  
    No expansion for 2013. Unless you call 1.25% GDP growth expansion. Let's wait to see what's in the bill(s) once we finally have a chance to read them. Are FICA - Medicare taxes going back to where they were 2 years ago? What about AMT? What about Obamacare? We shall see, but nothing good I predict.
    1 Jan, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Actuall, yes I do call 1.25%+ growth. I would call 0.50%+ growth as well. Is it the level of growth we would like? No, but it's still growth. If you think this is the level of growth (or worse) we will see in Q2 and beyond..I'll be happy to take the other side of your trade.
    1 Jan, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  •  
    This is where I stand. I'm "bbro" and I'm firmly for: "Fair enough...moonbats and wingnuts..."

    Step up to the plate. The world has only so many moonbats and wingnuts. Defend your thoughts.
    1 Jan, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Check out the estate taxes in section 101 of the amended HR 8 (page 11), which the Senate passed 89-8. (By amending the House bill, the Senate got around the Constitutional requirement that the House initiate tax changes.


    (c) Modifications of Estate Tax-
    (1) MAXIMUM ESTATE TAX RATE EQUAL TO 40 PERCENT- The table contained in subsection (c) of section 2001, as amended by section 302(a)(2) of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, is amended by striking `Over $500,000' and all that follows and inserting the following:
    ----------------------...
    ----------------------...
    `Over $500,000 but not over $750,000 $155,800, plus 37 percent of the excess of such amount over $500,000.
    Over $750,000 but not over $1,000,000 $248,300, plus 39 percent of the excess of such amount over $750,000.
    Over $1,000,000 $345,800, plus 40 percent of the excess of such amount over $1,000,000.'.
    ----------------------...
    (2) TECHNICAL CORRECTION- Clause (i) of section 2010(c)(4)(B) is amended by striking `basic exclusion amount' and inserting `applicable exclusion amount'.
    (3) EFFECTIVE DATES-
    (http://bit.ly/mQvm42) IN GENERAL- Except as otherwise provided by in this paragraph, the amendments made by this subsection shall apply to estates of decedents dying, generation-skipping transfers, and gifts made, after December 31, 2012.
    (http://bit.ly/qO5GqA) TECHNICAL CORRECTION- The amendment made by paragraph (2) shall take effect as if included in the amendments made by section 303 of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010.

    I see nothing in the bill about $5 million or $10 million thresh holds. What am I missing?
    1 Jan, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  •  
    "aMr. Johnson is making a great point. "We'll have to read the bill to see what's in it..."

    "I see nothing in the bill about $5 million or $10 million thresh holds.
    What am I missing?"

    Stop whining. You're a serf on his way to serfdom...(you just don't know it yet...)

    (does this help you?)

    Forward!
    1 Jan, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "The fiscal cliff deal will probably ensure that the U.S. avoids recession but it will also help cut GDP growth to 1% in Q1 2013 from 3.1% Q3 2012, JPMorgan and BofA economists forecast."

    The "fiscal cliff deal" needs to be passed so "we can see what's in it."

    The new-new-normal is .007% "growth" with >6.5% unemployment so we can lead the world from behind.

    Takers?
    1 Jan, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Just what Obama needs - low growth and an extension of all entitlements. Dems / Socialists don't do well in a successful economy with low unemployment, they need the 47% to get re-elected. The next key is to continue to spread the 47% around rather than to concentrate it in blue states. Look for OWS 2.

    Also look for crappy growth the next 2 years.
    1 Jan, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Despite all the conservative hoopla the last thing I read/saw was an article /chart showing that job creation has historically been greater under Demo administrations than Republican administrations. Wish I had bookmarked that article. Me personally, a moderate Republican, would have thought the opposite.
    1 Jan, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  •  
    @Bear Bait

    http://bloom.bg/OSYyKG

    Of course teabaggers aren't too bright so they listen to the right wing economic propaganda that has been thoroughly discredited.
    1 Jan, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Pay attention to the definition of "unemployed" if you look at history
    1 Jan, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I'll take the over .007% and under 6.5%...6.5% is a 2014 proposition
    1 Jan, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I so enjoy the 'forecasts' by the same entities who completely missed the recession of '08.

    I will totally trade on their theses....


    Sure.
    1 Jan, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  •  
    kmi
    Follow the Fed's forecasts as they have a great track record.
    Riiiiight.
    1 Jan, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  •  
    wyo -

    So you are going to trade on this thesis by BAC/JPM?
    1 Jan, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  •  
    kmi
    No way.
    1 Jan, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Trading on who called the last recession...

    good luck...
    1 Jan, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Get ready for a very good year investing. Any tax increase related bump will be completely run over by pent up demand for all kinds of goods, corporate hiring, small business expansion and new great technologies that will improve everyone's daily life. In absence of any major geo-political issue, expect a minimum of 10-15% SPY gain this year.

    Best of luck.
    1 Jan, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  •  
    bgold I agree. The market has been wanting to surge higher all December. Friday was a good example. An example; mid December my son sold most of his 401k holdings out of fear and against my recommendations. Had he held those positions, his ~25K 401K would appreciated ~1k to ~26K during that period. That was with all the negative cliff news. I may be wrong but I expect a big year. Financials BAC,C, MS & GS could see significant uptrends. Coal stocks could see big moves up if China continues to trend up. Solar looks good too!
    1 Jan, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Since nothing has worked so far..

    Don't you realize what a repudiation this is to Keynesiasm?

    We are not all Keynesians Now.

    At least, I'm not.

    The world moves forward on more taxes and regulation: who'd have thunk it? Sean Penn?

    Anyway...

    Forward!
    1 Jan, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Someone please explain what all the BS hoopla is about.

    The senate bill projects somewhere around 60 to 65 billion dollars in new taxes; no spending cuts; and, the projected 2013 deficit spending is projected to be about 1.1 trillion dollars.

    So after months of MSM hype the elected geniuses in Washington managed to cut the projected deficit by about 5%.

    For this we should all be elated?

    Unfrigging unbelievable.
    1 Jan, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    None of this matters. Even under the Ryan plan, the Fed will need to borrow money until 2040. The only solution is to inflate our way out of debt, ie, devalue the dollar.
    1 Jan, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Sequestration talks were delayed for 2 months. That is the reason no cuts were approved. Once that process completes, everyone can decide if they agree or not with cuts.
    1 Jan, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  •  
    There will be no cuts of any significance. Repubs want there war spending and Dems want their handout spending. Trade ya.
    1 Jan, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    bgold

    If you have ever sat at a very contensious negotiating session you would know that the more you cave in, the more you cave in on the next item. Keep everything on the table until there is a deal.

    I'll give you 10 to 1 the republicans cave in in two months.
    1 Jan, 02:32 PM Reply Like
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