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FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between...

  • Thursday, January 3, 2:02 PM ET
    FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013.
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This news story has 119 comments:

  • Uh Oh.

    Now we have make money on our own?


    How absurd.
    3 Jan, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Top Ten Reasons Why Fiat Currency Is Superior To Gold (Or Silver) Money

    http://bit.ly/UkDdKe

    For your paperbug friends..........
    3 Jan, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • US treasuries should be worth some serious money going forward. around the price of toilet paper maybe. Face it Ben $20 trillion just doesn't buy you what is used to,Print some more . US treasuries like any asset class can crash. Feel for seniors who love those things always believing otherwise (for good reason)
    3 Jan, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Treasuries are the sovereign debt of choice. And Ben's QE has been successful - it prevented a Great Depression and we now have the US economy growing at 3% in the third quarter.

    And no, there is no raging inflation except in your imagination.
    3 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • You absolutely love treasury bongs especially long term. U should buy the few 30 years bonds left after Bennyboy at 3% and putt'em away for ever. great deal. Things are great cuz Bernank bought a few billion more treasuries today. He did it with free money too. Absolutely wonderful.
    3 Jan, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • You sound like you are very bitter.
    3 Jan, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • CPI never includes food and energy, which is ok if you use neither. medical costs have been going up double digits per year the last 30 yrs, also OK if you don't use those.

    Try this like the investor Jim Rogers suggested some time ago . have the gov announce it is backing every check that hits a bank vs printing away while propping up a bunch of bankers over-leveraged bad bets. That would be a gov acting like a gov.
    3 Jan, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • the economy is wonderful. rates are really low and bond prices "never" go down. hey some greedy RE hore said "never" in '04 and same with some day trading internet genuis in '99.
    3 Jan, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • I say go short, Hammer. Go short 3x with SDS (down 30% in a year).
    3 Jan, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • i say who cares what u say. u know how to day trade etf's. wonderful.
    3 Jan, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Lack of conviction I see.
    3 Jan, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • american in paris, Your joking, right
    4 Jan, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • And the market tanks lol
    3 Jan, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Iam on a steady diet of 20 twinkies and hohos now - but Iam thinking of not eating as many - sometime in 2013 - Yeah thats the ticket!!
    3 Jan, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • And you won't even have Twinkies anymore. :)
    3 Jan, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • As of now, the FED is buying 50+% of all US treasuries. Without this bond buying, the interest rate on government debt would skyrocket and the insolvency of the US Treasury will surely follow.
    And I am not even talking about what would happen to Housing Bubble 2.0...
    3 Jan, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Fed Bought 77% of Federal Debt Increase in 2011- John B. Taylor blog.
    3 Jan, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • I have seen Bloomberg reports that it is 90%.
    3 Jan, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Really? I recollect that interest rates did not skyrocket after QE1 or QE2.
    3 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • The Fed was probably responsible for about 5% of total bond transactions in 2012.

    There are a huge number of bond transactions every day in the secondary market and that is the correct measure of the Fed's impact.
    3 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor,

    It is irrelevant. What matters is what percentage of total bond transactions (primary and secondary markets) accounted by the Fed.

    The Fed could buy bonds equal to 100% and yet still constitute a small percentage of total transactions.

    Moreover, because Treasury bonds are a lot more liquid and stable in value than alternatives, interest rates do not have to rise much to increase the quantity demanded.
    3 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • yes 5% of "transactions" but 70%+ of treasury bond issuance!

    Wonderful news money for notthing. And interest rates went down NOT up. This signifies that everything is just WONDERFUL.
    3 Jan, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Yeap. Not just the US .the dollar is the worlds reserve currency and not a lick of political will to anywhere deal with it. just let Ben and the central bankers do their thing.
    3 Jan, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • how can the interest go up when they hold it down by buying the debt with money out of thin air. wait it will come and then you'll see we will have to file for bankruptcy. The best thing for FED to do is print up 16 trillion plus and pay off our creditors with the fiat money and then change our system to gold and silver and let them eat the 16 trillion in paper. Evil mind.
    4 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone who believes this should get their heads examined. We are the new Euro soap opera.
    3 Jan, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Only because it is unfathomable in Europe to have such a breakdown of political process.

    The parliamentary system would never allow it.
    3 Jan, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Exactly!
    3 Jan, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Really? Italy went through a government a month for decades. Chronic instability under a parliamentary system.

    Nonetheless, I do believe a parliamentary system would be an improvement upon this divided government.
    3 Jan, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • The point being the parliamentary system keeps party members voting the party line. In Europe, Tea Party would have been forced to set up their own party, and the result would be the Republican representation would be somewhat different in 'parliament'.

    And Boehner 's plan B failure would have had real repercussions.
    4 Jan, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Spot on kmi.
    4 Jan, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • This kind of talk will bring more gambling money to the Dollar and equities. Forget the Bonds, SEE-SAW battles have just begun. The non-gamblers, enjoy the scenes !
    3 Jan, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Zero chance it will happen. The hawks are in the minority now. They can keep complaining, but it only makes them sound like whiny kids who have been thoroughly spanked.
    3 Jan, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Not to say I love gold all the time, but most of the time I do. I did trim down my gold and silver position last nigth post Fed minutes annoncement due to potential sentiment become short term bearish on precious metals. But here is what I want to ask you: given the annual recurrent 1.5-1.9 trillion in government budget deficit, without more QE, how is the government gonna finance its budget deficit? Unless you think foreign government and investors are all gonna take up the new issuance?
    4 Jan, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Where else would they put their money? All the countries in the world are inflating.
    4 Jan, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • I am surprised we are not jumping down on this news especially after last two days of crazy gains.
    3 Jan, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • um stocks seemed to sell of immediately after they announced the minutes?
    3 Jan, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Think of it this way. This is old news. This happened 3 weeks back. The hawks fought and lost. The pro growth regime won. So why should the market react to this? This has no forward looking bearing. There has been so much good news off late - home prices going up, car sales going up, employment going up, consumer finances in more stable state - that it is hard for the market to go down.
    3 Jan, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • yet if you look at the overall market... it tanked when the news release so both of you are just talking to talk now?
    3 Jan, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • 0.2% drop is now considered a tank!?
    3 Jan, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Car sales going up....I might add another bubble here as well?

    My daughter got a car loan for a brand new car, problem is she does not have a full time job and recently graduated from college with a Teaching Degree...Was willing to co sign but no need,

    Now a year ago her boyfriend bought a 150k truck to start a business, again no co sign needed. He already knows of 2 guys having their trucks repossed..

    So it seems that all they want to do is push the inventory out the door...Crazy stuff going on !! Be aware...
    3 Jan, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • it was up by almost .2% so it being down almost .2% is pretty tanky to me.
    3 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • I love bubbles! I make money on the way up and short on the way down. Even if I don't catch the bottom and the top, I still do very well!
    3 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • wasnt it Buffett who said you can have the 10% at the top and 10% at the bottom...i will take the 80% in the middle
    3 Jan, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • " it was up by almost .2% so it being down almost .2% is pretty tanky to me."

    I think this will be the comment of the year.
    3 Jan, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • DJIA and S&P 500 barely blinked !
    3 Jan, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Pretty tanky.
    3 Jan, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Great buying opportuntity coming up for the metals...These cronies haven't a clue what lies ahead!!

    Better yet they do, and are trying to cover it up !!
    3 Jan, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Buy iron ore!
    3 Jan, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • I would rather buy a bat and hit these idiots over the head...So i guess LUMBER???..LOL..
    3 Jan, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Aluminum!
    3 Jan, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Joan Rivers?

    Oh, not that kind of bat.
    3 Jan, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • More rhetoric from an entity that creates its own and other systemic risks. Doesn't want to be seen as an enabler, yet is.
    3 Jan, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Considering the increased car sales, better employment numbers, decreasing dollar store sales while high end stores report greatly improving sales ---

    could this just be an acknowledgment by those at the Fed that the economy is improving, and QE may not be necessary?
    3 Jan, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • The patient always needs a full dose of antibiotics. You don;t stop antibiotics just after the fever has subsided for the first time. The FOMC is on record, they will stop QEternity when unemployment is at or below 6.5%. Be patient.
    3 Jan, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • JG:

    Exactly.

    Amazing the number of specious comments, thinking the world will end for the economy and equities when rates start to rise. No, the world will end for all those "safe" Treasuries and fixed-income investments. And, where do they think all that money parked in debt issues is going to go?
    3 Jan, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, You sound like the ECB before they gave up and decided to go for a negative interest rate policy.
    3 Jan, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • The MSCI Europe index was up almost 16% in 2012. Why?
    3 Jan, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • TACK

    Silver and gold...Forget securities..Times are different....you shall see..
    3 Jan, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • tom:

    The EU Financial sub-index was up 32% in 2012. DAX up 28%. Greece up 37%, the largest increase of all markets and sectors in 2012.

    Buying against fear and loathing pays off.
    3 Jan, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Galt, it should be an acknowledgement that easy lending standards are making a come back. Obviously we are not back to the fog a mirror outright fraud level but nevertheless easy loans are making a comeback. The avg schlub cannot afford a house or car without some easy low downpayment payment scheme. Basically they have been priced out by inflated asset prices while real incomes fall farther behind.
    The system is leveraged cesspool.
    3 Jan, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • so tack what is beaten down ready to rocket for 2013?
    Come on man what have u done for us lately?
    3 Jan, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Ham:

    I actually think that the league leaders for 2013 may look very similar to 2012. I like European stocks, particularly select banks and telecom. I like BAC and select regional banks. I like global real estate funds. I like some commercial REITs (not agency). I like energy, including coal. I like select steel stocks. I like Chile. And, for the debt side, only convertibles and floating-rate issues.
    3 Jan, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • playing europe with ind stock or euro fund? which energy and reg banks? thanks
    3 Jan, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • "The FOMC is on record, they will stop QEternity when unemployment is at or below 6.5%."

    Upcoming employment reports will probably be watch more closely going forward and have bigger impacts on market movements. Poor reports will imply QE to continue, while stronger reports will imply a shorter life for QE.
    3 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Some selected issues of possible interest:

    SAN, SAN-B, BBVA, TEF, FTE, TOT, REPYY, EWP, BAC, STI, RF, FITB, ACI, JRCC, AWP, IGR, JRS, RAS, NRF, STWD, RWT, SID, CH, PHD, PFL, NCV, AGC
    3 Jan, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Funny, just mentioning the FED stopping and ALL are selling off, stocks, bonds, metals, etc..

    Makes you really wonder what lies ahead !!

    I know you buy on fear, but maybe we have a long downside here !!

    Still sticking with my physical, this market is rigged, like a casino..Good Luck to those who don't believe it !
    3 Jan, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • What's really funny is listening to alarmists voice concern about a 0.4% pullback after a 4% gain.
    3 Jan, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • TACK

    S&P still flat for 10 years...So don't just pick one day out...I can show you my 10 year chart of gold, but i won't..Keep buying stocks..

    Lets look back in a year!!
    3 Jan, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • IT:

    Gold had its moment in the sun. Classic boo-boo to keep riding the big winners. Gold, Apple, Treasuries, all the same.

    Money is made by buying the dogs that everybody hates and fears. In 2012, what were the biggest gainers, in order:


    1. Greece Athex
    2. EU financial sub-index
    3. The DAX
    4. S&P 500 Financials
    5. EU DJ Stoxx 600 Bank index
    3 Jan, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Is it true that gold is still down for the past 30 years?
    3 Jan, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • TACK

    I understand your reasons..But i ain't getting off this train yet!!
    3 Jan, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • People who believe that the Fed will perform a "real" tightening also still believe in the existence of Santa Claus. Some people who have commented here had believed that the Fed was going to stop with QE2. Even if QE "ends", it will be replaced with something similar only with a fancier name.
    4 Jan, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • I am stocking up on gold and silver.

    If the Fed does not buy all those Treasuries yields will move higher blowing a brand new hole in the budget.

    For every 1% increase in interest paid by the US the budget deficit will increase by $160 billion and that is on a yearly basis.

    Let's not forget that the recent budget deal increased spending.

    The world does not have to collapse. All you need to see is that the poor decisions being made by Congress restrict economic growth.
    3 Jan, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Where exactly does it say the members are divided ?

    "In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, all members but one judged that continued provision of monetary accommodation was warranted in order to support further progress toward the Committee's goals of maximum employment and price stability"
    3 Jan, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • The real hawks are not voting members in 2012.

    St. Louis, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Dallas are the true hawks.
    3 Jan, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Don't ignore that one hawk. If it is not an unanimous decision then it is divided.
    3 Jan, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • DAVID

    Did that years ago..WAY ahead of this game!!

    Some just don't see it.

    Got my guns and ammo as well. Lines where i live are 3 hours long at the gun counter!!!

    I am not alone, that's for sure..
    3 Jan, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Water and canned food?
    3 Jan, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • MACRO

    Yup, just need to add some things..If i am wrong i just eat it..Will be more expensive in a few years so it's a win/win...
    3 Jan, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Selloffs in the futures picking up as dollar strengthens.
    3 Jan, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • I have no idea how all of our issues are going to end. What i do know is that a panic is happening in Upstate NY where guns are concerned.

    1) They now have a number system and a sign that says wait could be up to 3 hours!!

    2) Ammo shelves are half empty already, and a salesmen at a large store said i better buy what i think i would need now !!

    3) Do i want to do it, or hope most buying are wrong? Worse yet could these new gun owners actually rob me one day?

    4) One newpaper listing EVERY pistol owner in Westchester, and will now add Putnam county as well. WHY?

    5) a LAWYER lists all the journalists and editors personal phone numbers, address, and even googled ones house and stated you might get unexpected company!! WHY ?

    What is happening is scary for sure......
    Are we starting to unravel? ???
    3 Jan, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • and a salesmen at a large store said i better buy what i think i would need now !!


    You don't say... a guy who makes his living off people buying stuff they may or may not need told you to buy everything you could now?

    Amazing... I'm going to go out and get my doomsday prepers on now
    3 Jan, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • WIG

    Guy was a saleman probably making 10 bucks an hour after getting laid off making 80k !!!

    NO bio, figures...

    Wake up!!
    3 Jan, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Just let us all know what episode you will be on so we can be sure to DVR it.

    Americans are if nothing else in love with the lifestyles we live today. If you think there will be any meaningful 'revolution' in which we throw all common sense out the window and go back to living without running water and cable tv then I'm going to call you crazy. Sorry it's just how I see it.

    That guy making 10$ an hour just earned his pay... just because he doesn't make a ton of money doing it doesn't mean he still doesn't try hard. Although if all it takes is a guy to tell you to buy stuff to get you to spend your money... I have this 40,000 brick I'm trying to sell... you might be able to use it for something after the US falls apart and everyone is killing eachother.

    "NO bio, figures..." are you suggesting that people who put bio's and pictures on SA are more credible then people who don't? If I go write "President of the crazy United States" would that satisfy you?
    3 Jan, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • WIG

    Ammo shelves were half empty. Guess you are a sheeple that believes fiat money lasts forever??

    Unemployment was 370k this week but i guess you missed math class as well? Lets see we lay off over 350k a week and create maybe 200k jobs a month..Now lets factor in new grads..Oh yeah , were doing fine..

    Yeah you will be fine in a few years, i know where you'll be standing with a sign..

    Some just don't get it, but thats ok with me..
    3 Jan, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • The critical change since QE-infinity is that instead of voting "for" QE, in order to extend it, they must now vote "against" QE to rescind it.

    This provides some latitude with voting that didn't exist before. We are still not honestly close to ending QE.
    3 Jan, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Loading up on juniors and have a few up 20% this year. The real value is at the junior sector if you know what to look for.
    3 Jan, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • 10yr Teas yield moving up sharply. At some point there will be a mass exodus out of bond funds . Question is will it go into stock funds or elect to be bled slowly in cash ( due to negative real rates).
    3 Jan, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • This signals that the Fed is aware that the current structure of monetizing the US deficit is not sustainable, and also signals a possible change of view regarding the healthy of the US economy. It may hurt the stock market for a while, as the Fed weens the market off it's artificial high sugar diet, but longer term, it's much healthier for equity prices to track fundamentals than just artificially-depressed interest rates.
    3 Jan, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Depends on the holders of the Treasuries.
    3 Jan, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Steepening yield curve should be positive for "risk assets"
    3 Jan, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • This fiscal cliff deal should result in a roughly 1-1.5% of GDP tightening. If on top of that , rising mortgage rates choke off the recent housing stabilization - that could choke off this weak recovery. I personally would be surprised if the Fed actually took its foot off the pedal this year.
    3 Jan, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Agreed.
    3 Jan, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Macro. Moreover, with the newly aggressive monetary policy out of Japan and Eurozone, if the Fed were to even hint of tightening , the Dollar will shoot up killing off any incipient export recovery.
    Weak exports, weakening housing, =>recession=>une... goes back up. Fed will have to eat its words very shortly after it hints at tightening.
    3 Jan, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Very true, though Japan in particular would love it! :-)
    3 Jan, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Very true and Bernanke has backed himself into a corner with regard to monetary policy.

    If he pulls QE yields shoot higher, deficit explodes, and the dollar rises causing growth to slow.

    If he maintains QE we continue falling towards Japan 2.0 where our debt load grows to the point that we cannot use interest rates to effect proper monetary policy.
    3 Jan, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Rising interest rates are poison to this bloated corrupted housing market. Housing has not been a free market for long time.
    Yeah house prices are going to the moon. Yeah sure as real median household incomes fall further behind. Yeah just lever up some more to pay higher rents and higher houses. Housing will take a massive down turn when these rates rise. The BS we constantly hear about housing affordabiity is based on record low artificial interest rates. When interest rate bubbles burst housing goes bust affordability crashes.
    3 Jan, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Hammer:

    You are perpetuating a fallacious notion that home prices and interest rates are inversely related, when consulting any overlaid home-price and interest-rate graphs demonstrates that, historically, prices and rates rise in tandem. In fact, higher rates have little effect on housing until they get near the apex of their cycles.
    3 Jan, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry tack but this time around real median incomes have been falling substantially behind for a decade or more. Higher rates will have a huge impact on affordability since the RE hores been pumping monthly payments along with autos. This economy is highly addicted to record low rates for economic activity and big ticket purchases. Party coming to an end as the treasury market has a convulsion from its delusional journey. The cost of living is squeezing the avg person. Alot less left over for housing.
    3 Jan, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • A whisper of the Fed saying NO MAS had people running for the exits!!

    What a stable economy we have huh ???

    So many sheeple just don't get it, I am amazed !!!
    3 Jan, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Did you look at the last half hour of the futures ??

    Doubt it..This is going no where...

    No new money in this market, just institutions...good luck...
    3 Jan, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • WIG


    Whether the Fed explicitly prints via QEforever, or the fedGov does it implicitly by running ever larger deficits, makes no difference. It all serves to devalue the US dollar and drive future uncertainty and inflation.


    Here's an idea:
    Use your house equity to borrow money (that you don't need) cheaply and buy physical commodities. Wait a few years and sell the commodities and pay back the low interest loan. Pocket the difference. You won't beat inflation but you will come closer then putting money into LT fedGov bonds. Shudder!

    Today's fiat currency is tomorrows toilet tissue.

    $10k bills, anyone?
    3 Jan, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • In theory it makes sense to do what you suggest. In practice...things are uncertain and volatile and having leverage ( at a cost of 4-5%) will make it much much harder to comfortably hold your positions. probably will get pushed right up to your threshold of pain and get forced out at the worst possible time. Much better to have no leverage, sensible position sizes and be able to ride out a 20% adverse move.
    3 Jan, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Should I be freaking out about this? I cant quite tell... Be positioned in PM miners this is not good news regardless of how much truth there is to it.

    Anybody have a prediction?
    3 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Dan:

    If the Fed stopped QE and rates started to rise, PM and PM miners would drop faster than those iron balls Galileo dropped from the Leaning Tower of Pisa.
    3 Jan, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • That would depend on GDP growth. If we had strong underlying growth I would say yes but there are other factors to consider.

    The Fed is still propping up European banks through their swap programs. An unwinding there would be a huge negative and that is not happening anytime soon.

    We have massive structural problems which are not being addressed worldwide. Spain and Greece have unemployment rates over 20% and youth unemployment rates over 50%. We are staring at a lost generation as GDP growth grinds to a halt.

    In this country not enough jobs are being created on a monthly basis to outpace the new entrants into the workforce and people are leaving unemployment for disability not because they are disabled but because they cannot find a job.

    We have to address the structural problems and we have the Fed buying almost $1 trillion dollars in debt in 2013. The game they are playing is not sustainable.

    If the pedal was pulled back there would have to be a change in the problems I listed above, swaps, unemployment, and debt monetization by Central Banks, for gold to crash. .Otherwise gold would spike lower only to rush higher when everyone figures out that the structural problems are still in place and the Fed has pulled the net away.
    4 Jan, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • but do you view that as in any way likely? These minutes are a month old and are a window into the debate around whether to expand QE or not. Most people seemed to be expecting QE to last well through 2013 and into 2014, why the sudden reversal?

    It seems a bit absurd unless theres an angle im missing..
    4 Jan, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • Would you be inclined to bail on these positions at this point or ride it out pending the debt ceiling debate?
    4 Jan, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you very much for your thoughtful and interesting response to my question - It is very much appreciated.
    4 Jan, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • The first quarter of the year is historically bullish for PM's and stocks. I would be looking for quality in the sector at every level from producers down to juniors and keep stops on my positions.

    I personally raised my average exposure and will ease it back when I see that we have become overbought technically.
    4 Jan, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Its no secret the Fed wants to see all that cash move into equities, the "housing recovery" may not like it and people with treasuries may not like it either; careful what you ask for you might just get it.

    The only number that has ever mattered is the jobs number. No matter how many 200,00 new jobs they create each month you cant report almost 400,000 people losing their jobs each week for 5 years and expect things to get better and all that money printing hasn't changed. Problems are structural
    3 Jan, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • There goes the rug.

    Either they're just playing some sick game trying to sway expectations this way and that way, or they realize core inflation is rising.
    3 Jan, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Theatrics, nothing more. The Fed saw Congress and the President engage in their thespian antics over the year's end, and they got jealous, that's all.

    They will print til the cows come home.
    3 Jan, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Actually, the minutes were written a while back. They were just released today. A total non event.
    3 Jan, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • going for indefinite until unemployment is such and such, throughout December to "several" with more than a couple arguing for above .25-.63" in 2013 revealed today. Nothing to see here for more than a day with the doves out in force tomorrow. All it takes is less than QE4 eternity to suggest there is conjecture of tightening, what is left if not prolonging it to absurd lengths or until all the rotten location real estate is back to pre bubble highs? I think not.
    The real pop corn eating event will be next week when the ECB has their meeting and whether they decide on more easing. That strong Euro is so productive, doh! Not so much.
    3 Jan, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • what reason do you have Dan to expect Easing out of the Governing Council meeting of the ECB next week? I havent read anything suggesting so other than the unlikely possibility of another rate cut.
    4 Jan, 04:55 AM Reply Like
  • 2008 probably would've been a better moment for this profound idea.
    4 Jan, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • The United States is a FAILED EXPIERMENT in CAPITALISM and DEMOCRACY and must logically QEase indefinitely or suffer a massive economic recession. Under it's current political-economic philosophy of predominantly appeasing the it's rich 1%, it has absolutely no chance of regaining the lost middle-class manufacturing jobs and thus the economic multiplier and tax revenue base associated with productive employment activity meanwhile entitlement liabilities keep rising, including the billions necesary for lifetime care of it's tens of thousands of wounded warrior heroes sent to overthrow regimes who would threaten to undermine America's money printing fraud.
    4 Jan, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Guess who gets crushed in "massive economic recessions" (depressions)? If you think it's the 1%, try again.
    4 Jan, 09:01 PM Reply Like
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