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FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between...
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Thursday, January 3, 2:02 PM ETFOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013.
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This news story has 119 comments:
Now we have make money on our own?
How absurd.
http://bit.ly/UkDdKe
For your paperbug friends..........
And no, there is no raging inflation except in your imagination.
Try this like the investor Jim Rogers suggested some time ago . have the gov announce it is backing every check that hits a bank vs printing away while propping up a bunch of bankers over-leveraged bad bets. That would be a gov acting like a gov.
And I am not even talking about what would happen to Housing Bubble 2.0...
There are a huge number of bond transactions every day in the secondary market and that is the correct measure of the Fed's impact.
It is irrelevant. What matters is what percentage of total bond transactions (primary and secondary markets) accounted by the Fed.
The Fed could buy bonds equal to 100% and yet still constitute a small percentage of total transactions.
Moreover, because Treasury bonds are a lot more liquid and stable in value than alternatives, interest rates do not have to rise much to increase the quantity demanded.
Wonderful news money for notthing. And interest rates went down NOT up. This signifies that everything is just WONDERFUL.
The parliamentary system would never allow it.
Nonetheless, I do believe a parliamentary system would be an improvement upon this divided government.
And Boehner 's plan B failure would have had real repercussions.
My daughter got a car loan for a brand new car, problem is she does not have a full time job and recently graduated from college with a Teaching Degree...Was willing to co sign but no need,
Now a year ago her boyfriend bought a 150k truck to start a business, again no co sign needed. He already knows of 2 guys having their trucks repossed..
So it seems that all they want to do is push the inventory out the door...Crazy stuff going on !! Be aware...
I think this will be the comment of the year.
Better yet they do, and are trying to cover it up !!
Oh, not that kind of bat.
could this just be an acknowledgment by those at the Fed that the economy is improving, and QE may not be necessary?
Exactly.
Amazing the number of specious comments, thinking the world will end for the economy and equities when rates start to rise. No, the world will end for all those "safe" Treasuries and fixed-income investments. And, where do they think all that money parked in debt issues is going to go?
Silver and gold...Forget securities..Times are different....you shall see..
The EU Financial sub-index was up 32% in 2012. DAX up 28%. Greece up 37%, the largest increase of all markets and sectors in 2012.
Buying against fear and loathing pays off.
The system is leveraged cesspool.
Come on man what have u done for us lately?
I actually think that the league leaders for 2013 may look very similar to 2012. I like European stocks, particularly select banks and telecom. I like BAC and select regional banks. I like global real estate funds. I like some commercial REITs (not agency). I like energy, including coal. I like select steel stocks. I like Chile. And, for the debt side, only convertibles and floating-rate issues.
Upcoming employment reports will probably be watch more closely going forward and have bigger impacts on market movements. Poor reports will imply QE to continue, while stronger reports will imply a shorter life for QE.
SAN, SAN-B, BBVA, TEF, FTE, TOT, REPYY, EWP, BAC, STI, RF, FITB, ACI, JRCC, AWP, IGR, JRS, RAS, NRF, STWD, RWT, SID, CH, PHD, PFL, NCV, AGC
Makes you really wonder what lies ahead !!
I know you buy on fear, but maybe we have a long downside here !!
Still sticking with my physical, this market is rigged, like a casino..Good Luck to those who don't believe it !
S&P still flat for 10 years...So don't just pick one day out...I can show you my 10 year chart of gold, but i won't..Keep buying stocks..
Lets look back in a year!!
Gold had its moment in the sun. Classic boo-boo to keep riding the big winners. Gold, Apple, Treasuries, all the same.
Money is made by buying the dogs that everybody hates and fears. In 2012, what were the biggest gainers, in order:
1. Greece Athex
2. EU financial sub-index
3. The DAX
4. S&P 500 Financials
5. EU DJ Stoxx 600 Bank index
I understand your reasons..But i ain't getting off this train yet!!
If the Fed does not buy all those Treasuries yields will move higher blowing a brand new hole in the budget.
For every 1% increase in interest paid by the US the budget deficit will increase by $160 billion and that is on a yearly basis.
Let's not forget that the recent budget deal increased spending.
The world does not have to collapse. All you need to see is that the poor decisions being made by Congress restrict economic growth.
"In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, all members but one judged that continued provision of monetary accommodation was warranted in order to support further progress toward the Committee's goals of maximum employment and price stability"
St. Louis, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Dallas are the true hawks.
Did that years ago..WAY ahead of this game!!
Some just don't see it.
Got my guns and ammo as well. Lines where i live are 3 hours long at the gun counter!!!
I am not alone, that's for sure..
Yup, just need to add some things..If i am wrong i just eat it..Will be more expensive in a few years so it's a win/win...
1) They now have a number system and a sign that says wait could be up to 3 hours!!
2) Ammo shelves are half empty already, and a salesmen at a large store said i better buy what i think i would need now !!
3) Do i want to do it, or hope most buying are wrong? Worse yet could these new gun owners actually rob me one day?
4) One newpaper listing EVERY pistol owner in Westchester, and will now add Putnam county as well. WHY?
5) a LAWYER lists all the journalists and editors personal phone numbers, address, and even googled ones house and stated you might get unexpected company!! WHY ?
What is happening is scary for sure......
Are we starting to unravel? ???
You don't say... a guy who makes his living off people buying stuff they may or may not need told you to buy everything you could now?
Amazing... I'm going to go out and get my doomsday prepers on now
Guy was a saleman probably making 10 bucks an hour after getting laid off making 80k !!!
NO bio, figures...
Wake up!!
Americans are if nothing else in love with the lifestyles we live today. If you think there will be any meaningful 'revolution' in which we throw all common sense out the window and go back to living without running water and cable tv then I'm going to call you crazy. Sorry it's just how I see it.
That guy making 10$ an hour just earned his pay... just because he doesn't make a ton of money doing it doesn't mean he still doesn't try hard. Although if all it takes is a guy to tell you to buy stuff to get you to spend your money... I have this 40,000 brick I'm trying to sell... you might be able to use it for something after the US falls apart and everyone is killing eachother.
"NO bio, figures..." are you suggesting that people who put bio's and pictures on SA are more credible then people who don't? If I go write "President of the crazy United States" would that satisfy you?
Ammo shelves were half empty. Guess you are a sheeple that believes fiat money lasts forever??
Unemployment was 370k this week but i guess you missed math class as well? Lets see we lay off over 350k a week and create maybe 200k jobs a month..Now lets factor in new grads..Oh yeah , were doing fine..
Yeah you will be fine in a few years, i know where you'll be standing with a sign..
Some just don't get it, but thats ok with me..
This provides some latitude with voting that didn't exist before. We are still not honestly close to ending QE.
Weak exports, weakening housing, =>recession=>une... goes back up. Fed will have to eat its words very shortly after it hints at tightening.
If he pulls QE yields shoot higher, deficit explodes, and the dollar rises causing growth to slow.
If he maintains QE we continue falling towards Japan 2.0 where our debt load grows to the point that we cannot use interest rates to effect proper monetary policy.
Yeah house prices are going to the moon. Yeah sure as real median household incomes fall further behind. Yeah just lever up some more to pay higher rents and higher houses. Housing will take a massive down turn when these rates rise. The BS we constantly hear about housing affordabiity is based on record low artificial interest rates. When interest rate bubbles burst housing goes bust affordability crashes.
You are perpetuating a fallacious notion that home prices and interest rates are inversely related, when consulting any overlaid home-price and interest-rate graphs demonstrates that, historically, prices and rates rise in tandem. In fact, higher rates have little effect on housing until they get near the apex of their cycles.
What a stable economy we have huh ???
So many sheeple just don't get it, I am amazed !!!
Doubt it..This is going no where...
No new money in this market, just institutions...good luck...
Whether the Fed explicitly prints via QEforever, or the fedGov does it implicitly by running ever larger deficits, makes no difference. It all serves to devalue the US dollar and drive future uncertainty and inflation.
Here's an idea:
Use your house equity to borrow money (that you don't need) cheaply and buy physical commodities. Wait a few years and sell the commodities and pay back the low interest loan. Pocket the difference. You won't beat inflation but you will come closer then putting money into LT fedGov bonds. Shudder!
Today's fiat currency is tomorrows toilet tissue.
$10k bills, anyone?
Anybody have a prediction?
If the Fed stopped QE and rates started to rise, PM and PM miners would drop faster than those iron balls Galileo dropped from the Leaning Tower of Pisa.
The Fed is still propping up European banks through their swap programs. An unwinding there would be a huge negative and that is not happening anytime soon.
We have massive structural problems which are not being addressed worldwide. Spain and Greece have unemployment rates over 20% and youth unemployment rates over 50%. We are staring at a lost generation as GDP growth grinds to a halt.
In this country not enough jobs are being created on a monthly basis to outpace the new entrants into the workforce and people are leaving unemployment for disability not because they are disabled but because they cannot find a job.
We have to address the structural problems and we have the Fed buying almost $1 trillion dollars in debt in 2013. The game they are playing is not sustainable.
If the pedal was pulled back there would have to be a change in the problems I listed above, swaps, unemployment, and debt monetization by Central Banks, for gold to crash. .Otherwise gold would spike lower only to rush higher when everyone figures out that the structural problems are still in place and the Fed has pulled the net away.
It seems a bit absurd unless theres an angle im missing..
I personally raised my average exposure and will ease it back when I see that we have become overbought technically.
The only number that has ever mattered is the jobs number. No matter how many 200,00 new jobs they create each month you cant report almost 400,000 people losing their jobs each week for 5 years and expect things to get better and all that money printing hasn't changed. Problems are structural
Either they're just playing some sick game trying to sway expectations this way and that way, or they realize core inflation is rising.
They will print til the cows come home.
The real pop corn eating event will be next week when the ECB has their meeting and whether they decide on more easing. That strong Euro is so productive, doh! Not so much.