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A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been...
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Friday, January 4, 2:45 PM ETA little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M.
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This news story has 46 comments:
AAPL will be up in 2013 and AAPL current level is a good entry point.
Why should we listen to an analyst guesses/conclusions based on some rumors he may have heard or some infos he may have had which could be partially true or totally false ? No one knows.
Why do we think that these analysts have the clue & know what they are talking about ?
Why dont we think that these analysts have some interest in orienting their comments ?
After all, aren't they concerned by stock's price one way or another ?
One of the hosts of Bloomberg West (Cory Johnson) gave a mocking take on Apple analysts a couple of weeks ago where he pointed out that most of them are merely looking in their car rear view mirror.
When the stock is rising fast they look back and take note and start giving Apple price targets of £900 - £1,000 a share.
Conversely, when the stock is crashing they look into their mirror take note of the fall and start lowering their price target to $550 - $750!
In other words they are not leading the market but following it. The best advice I can give is to buy Apple shares when Analysts are downgrading the stock (ie. now) and sell Apple shares when analysts are raising it to the stars (ie. late September 2012).
I have owned Apple shares since 2003 and I know from past experience that this company will beat big time come January 23. It really would not surprise me to see the stock hit $800 come late Spring.
A. They are personally broke
B. They consistently under-perform the major averages year after year after year
And
C. They have been 100% wrong about apple for 10 years or more!
I took my plunge at $250 and had never regretted it. I look at AAPL's balance sheet, cash flow and P & L and compare it to the other big techs. I simply couldn't find a better deal to put my money in in the short and the medium term. Longer than 5 years, no one knows except the Man upstairs.
When apple will return to a peg of > 1 is anybodies guess.
But I would rather prefer to listen to CEO Tim Cook & dont bet against Apple. At least not with a shorting target after the 23rd january's result release.
http://stks.co/kHbg
http://bit.ly/Zm7T4v
Note that Susquehanna Financial Group mentioned in the first article is a part of Susquehanna International Group and published one of the famous supply chain stories several weeks ago. The second link published more recently says Apple is now 21.4% of assets Susquehanna International Group, up 50% in the qtr.
Sounds like stock manipulation to me
Here is another example that appeared in the same Barron's tech blog earlier on.
http://bit.ly/Zm8FON
you should get a nice warm cuddly feeling in your self that the writer really has a firm grasp of his understanding of his research, eh?
Plain old fashioned B.S.
On the other hand, Amazon continue to be priced at real exuberant price and Samsung and Google problems are left out any serious analysis what it mean for Samsung users their non Android phones future phones?
And the upside is supposedly in the nearer quarter, leading to higher net present value of those earnings, yes?
Gee, "long been cautious" and "consensus... has fallen" sure are interesting ways of characterizing that *startling* new information.
Perhaps the 'caution' was more a function of the iPad upside, and the whiplash anyone trying to follow the tablet growth chart upward would experience.
What huge profit drivers do you see for them in the near future? The consumer market is substantially moving in the direction of mobile, and Apple is succeeding in the US. Seems to me Google will struggle to command the same advertising revenue that Apple will command going forward. Apple users are more affluent and spend more.
Google already dominates the US search market, and can only go down from here. Google is unlikely to grow much in China, where a homegrown company (BIDU) will flourish.
In the absence of a driverless car revolution, GOOG looks like it will struggle going forward. Maybe they'll pull a rabbit out of their hat, but I wouldn't invest based on that.
Good luck
My guess is a good earnings report on Jan 23rd & conservative guidance for next 1/4.
When the dust cleared and the lone buyer backed up his truck, over 2M iPhone5's were sold over the first weekend.
Beware of "news." Be aware.
Apple isn't anywhere close to done in terms of product innovation. As soon as the Apple TV hits, the stock is headed for the moon. You won't hear them talking about margin compression after that. Everyone will want one. Margins drop a percent or two and the street freaks out. Ha. What did they expect? Margin expansion all the way up to 50%? 60%?
Unless things get really crazy 500-550 should be the range until earnings.