Market Currents
While the preferred stock (PFF) led the income pack in 2012 with a total return of 18.2%, the...
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Sunday, January 6, 8:56 AM ETWhile the preferred stock (PFF) led the income pack in 2012 with a total return of 18.2%, the current risk-reward profile isn't great, says Barclays' Shobhit Gupta, with the upside capped by the issuer call option, and significant downside if rates rise. One overlooked class for investors: Convertible Bonds (CWB). Barron's overview of the income sector.
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Convertible:
NCV
AGC
JPC
CHI
Floating:
PFL
VVR
PHD
JRO
I would rather own CLMS and rake in the fees.
P
I'd suggest you reconsider:
One year performance to shareholders, including dividends and net of fees:
NCV - 12%
AGC - 11%
JPC - 32%
CHI - 14%
PFL - 28%
VVR - 25%
PHD - 15%
JRO - 17%
I'll be happy with all of those performances for non-equity funds.
CLMS - -5% (that's "minus")
My concern is that the largest sector exposure there is financials,which have been on a real tear recently. In a market correction they would tank,so it wouldn't surprise me if cwb underperformed the market.
There's never any risk if one holds an issue below par. They can't force you to sell it back below par. The risk, if any, is when issues are above par, in which case one needs to study the prospectus to see what the call provisions and dates are.
I am still OK with preferreds, but have reduced my holdings somewhat. I loaded up heavily in late 2009/early 2010 with some high yielding european stuff from ING, Barclays, HSBC, DeutscheBank and Santander (and a few US bank preferreds). Most of it I have rolled out of at a very good profit (I'll sell the SAN-E after another dividend or two, the DKT on the other hand, is not callable for another 5 years.) I have reinvested some of it in lower yielding stuff like GS-I, RF-A, SCE-F and NEE-C. A small part I have then used to buy small amounts of more speculative stuff like MILL-C and MHR-D. (And some even more speculative convertibles like APA-D and CHK-D.) I also keep my eye on the IPO market.
I reduced my preferred (and junk bond) weighting by about 20%, and most of the proceeds went to a combination of MLPs and dividend stocks that Mr. Market had put on sale. There's always something on sale.
Will the portfolio value decline during economic recessions? Of course! But, the dividends will likely continue and make holding tolerable!
I did so during the market declines of 2000/2002 and
2007/03/09/2009. In both examples, we had price value recovery.
You simply have to have faith that after the value declines, there will be recovery!
This optimism saved this 86 year old from exiting equities in 2008 and putting the money in "safe" places such as bank savings, C.D.s and money market funds and are now earning virtually nothing on these investments and are having to sell assets to meet their living expenses!
I offer the above to give younger investors encouragement!
One of my fav is GABUX which is an income fund disguised as a uts fund with a merger/buyout focus. Distribution is about 13% monthly, of which a vast majority is ROC. Very misunderstood.
I guess it's safe to assume all the issues in the portfolio are fixed rate.
PFF is mostly preferred shares, but they can be floating or convertible, too, and they own some bonds:
http://bit.ly/WA88ST
Very few preferreds have maturities. Without maturity there is no duration.
I bought into PFF back in 2009 when the world was going to come to an end. The fund bounced nicely over the years, but I sold out in 2012 to take advantage of the cap gains rate and the fact that the underlying share price is unlikely to go much above $40, unless interest rates decline. I thought that would be a weak premise.
On the other hand, I like convertibles. My investment vehicle is the Vanguard Convertible Securities Fund (VCVSX). The current yield is 3.7 percent and the expense ratio is 0.59%. YE 2012 all-in performance was 14.77% (Morningstar). I've owned shares of this fund likewise since 2009.
My view is that when the difference between the fund yield and Aaa bonds (FRB data) is greater than 2 percent, it's time to bail. Today, the diff is 0.1%. Plenty of headroom.