Shares of Amazon (AMZN) move up 2.1% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley rings up an...

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HS Comments (159)
 
... after 18 years of operation the company is still pretty much breakeven, CEO and CFO are selling their shares like there is no tomorrow ... and now this upgrading - nothing more than handwaving IMO
7 Jan, 08:29 AM Reply Like

Paulo Santos Comments (11607)
 
The international operations are what is destroying the profit, so it figures that MS would upgrade on those rosy prospects.
7 Jan, 08:54 AM Reply Like

HZLIU Comments (171)
 
Look like that Morgan Stanley wants to help AMZN break out the range. It just wastes time to discuss the valuation of AMZN, justified or overvalue. It is a game. Right now, it seems all major brokerages want to support AMZN until they might be right and AMZN stock could stay at high level or more often AMZN stock could crash 20~50% in one day like earlier darling NFLX, GMCR, CMG et al until AMZN's revenue growth slow but still no much profit. Who care? That is other people's money.
7 Jan, 08:57 AM Reply Like

Paulo Santos Comments (11607)
 
AMZN's revenue growth is already slowing down substantially. For instance, the US growth on 3P sales that AMZN recently heralded as being +40% yoy was +60% yoy in Q1 2012. Same with the entire revenues, this Q is already up just 27.6% from >30% or so earlier in 2012.
7 Jan, 09:01 AM Reply Like

chopchop0 Comments (1646)
 
this is going to be very ugly when it finally ends....
7 Jan, 09:34 AM Reply Like

Michael428 Comments (282)
 
Why would Morgan Stanley upgrade the company when earnings come out in about a month or less?

Here is a quote I found dealing with the upgrade:

<<<Analysts Scott Devitt and Andrew Ruud said Amazon.com's global order fulfillment network amounts to an "underappreciated, strategic asset" that could help the company gain market share. Analysts hiked their 2015 sales forecast for Amazon.com to $166 billion from $145 billion.>>>

I wonder how old Devitt and Ruud are? I also wonder if they were around in 1999 during the tech bubble and if they saw the bubble burst back then?

And I wonder if they are seeing what I think I am seeing?
7 Jan, 10:20 AM Reply Like

Paulo Santos Comments (11607)
 
It's always nice to say that whatever is the reason to buy today, it happens in 2015. Because 2015 takes a lot of time to arrive, and the stock moves today.

Also:
1) 2 years ago, was the analyst seeing the profit plunge that took place? No;
2) Since 1 year ago, when the analyst was downgrading this same stock, have things turned out better than the analyst expected? No.

etc, etc. It's basically a game. AMZN is where it is because it can, not because it should.
7 Jan, 10:25 AM Reply Like

HZLIU Comments (171)
 
How many analysts lost job after the stocks they covered is crashed with their blessing? It must be very few.
7 Jan, 10:31 AM Reply Like

Paulo Santos Comments (11607)
 
Once in a while one gets banned from the industry, like Blodget of AMZN fame (wouldn't you have guessed it), where he was caught pumping stocks which he privately referred to as "POS".
7 Jan, 10:38 AM Reply Like

Zeus2012 Comments (456)
 
One hard lesson that I've learned being short AMZN is the old adage: the market can remain irrational for a long time.

This stock will continue to go up until there is a macro event that forces investors to reassess the momentum / bubble that this stock has been trading on.

I believe that macro event is when the fed stops its QE program and starts to withdraw the massive liquidity that it has pumped into the market. Remember, Greenspan also pumped quite a bit of liquidity into the system in anticipation of the non-event called Y2K.

Until then, this stock will continue to rise irrespective of the earnings / fundamentals. The music will continue to play on.
7 Jan, 12:35 PM Reply Like