Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Portfolio App for iPad
Finance
(1)
Market Currents

Over 40B apps have now been downloaded from the App Store, and nearly 20B were downloaded last...

  • Monday, January 7, 9:28 AM ET
    Over 40B apps have now been downloaded from the App Store, and nearly 20B were downloaded last year, Apple (AAPL) declares. The company adds developer payouts have topped $7B, and that there are over 500M active iTunes accounts (very useful for a mobile payments solution if Apple ever wants to launch one). The App Store still has a big edge on Google Play when it comes to app monetization, though the latter has been growing faster lately.
Track new comments on this story

This news story has 58 comments:

  • Sounds like as good a reason as any to knock it down again today.... Can't wait for earnings later this month when we finally put the bashing of Apple behind us. Till the next time that is.....
    7 Jan, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • WHAT??? Apple only made $92 Million Trillion this quarter??? All in cash??? SELL SELL SELL
    7 Jan, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • You're buying *future* earnings. i.e. what is going to happen over the *next* p/e years? Yesterday's earnings have already happened and if you didn't own the stock then you didn't partake. Are apple's future earnings going to continue to grow exponentially, because that's what an exponentially growing stock price implies.

    There are limits. Once everyone has an iPhone, where does further growth come from?

    http://read.bi/XD4Un9

    Did say the hedge funds would be dumping, they have already earned Apple's next few years earnings, and there's probably some more downside on the way. Being a fan boy isn't going to do your wallet any favours. Buy low, sell high not buy high sell low.
    7 Jan, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • css1971, brilliant answer
    7 Jan, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • "There are limits. Once everyone has an iPhone, where does further growth come from?"

    Where would you like me to begin...

    1. New iPhone sales on upgrade cycle
    2. Complimentary iPads & Macs from satisfied iPhone customers
    3. Apple TVs with Paid Subscription Services
    4. Mobile Wallet - Tie your Debit or Credit Cards to your iTunes Account for Global Payments
    7 Jan, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • You're 100% correct that you're buying future earnings. AAPL is currently trading at a forward P/E of under 10, which given the company's performance record seems fairly insane.

    Future growth from upgrades to their existing product offerings alone is enough to support a significantly higher share price. And what are the chances that they've got more innovation up their sleeve? I get the theory that innovation died with Jobs - that may be the case but I find it hard to swallow.

    Being a fan boy isn't a way to make money, but apparently being a spreader of FUD is.
    7 Jan, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • And to answer your question of growth - did you read the subject of this thread? The App Store hit 40 billion downloads, half of them this year. Do the math - 20 billion downloads between July '08 and December 31 '11, and 20 billion downloads this year. THAT's what we call exponential growth.
    7 Jan, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • "past performance is not an indicator of future success" is what they print on every stock trading web page.

    We're *still* coming down from a Shiller P/E of around 40 in Y2k. Single digit P/Es are going to become the new normal. Just saying you might want to take a step back and try to get some perspective on what normal is.
    7 Jan, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • humans do multiply !!!!!
    7 Jan, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • CSS, I am not an apple fan by any means, but one thing Apple has done which is smart is put its "moat" in software. David Einhorn has called Apple undervalued precisely because of its software/media ecosystem, not its hardware.

    It's essentially a software company that makes money by selling hardware to gain access to that ecosystem/software.

    I personally think their products are overhyped and overpriced, but they carry a brand name cachet and with millions of individuals invested in the Itunes music/app ecosystem, I don't see it going away tomorrow
    7 Jan, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Please don't waste your time explaining market logic to AAPL shareholders. They just don't understand what is going on. Too wrapped up in their e-newspaper on the iPad.
    7 Jan, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Half of them this year? 20B in one week? BUY BUY BUY!!!
    7 Jan, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Umm......Really, CSS, Really? LOL

    There are no future earnings price into AAPL at 525. In fact, there is no growth at all priced into AAPL at 525, let alone exponential growth. AAPL grows at four times the rate of the S & P and sells at over a 20% discount to the S & P.

    As for market saturation, You should be talking about Samsung, not AAPL. AAPL only has 17% of the global smartphone market (with 70% of the profits), so....nowhere near saturation.

    Try again.
    7 Jan, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Add to that:

    1.) huge growth in enterprise market and huge future opportunity in enterprise business.

    2.) China mobile deal

    3.) 135B war chest to buy earnings with through acquisitions or stock buy-back.

    4.) New developing countries such as India which has almost the same population as China.

    5.) Whatever new products AAPL's multi-billion dollar R & D budget yeilds.
    7 Jan, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • I've got a great grasp on what normal is, thanks. Funny thing - every time somebody decides that there's a new 'normal', they're wrong. Fundamental investing principles win out over the long run every time.

    AAPL is undervalued by almost any metric you can look at. Your argument about the new normal might carry more weight if AAPL was OVERvalued compared to its peers, but it's not, despite years of innovation and outperformance.

    As a comparison, GOOG is valued at about twice AAPL right now. AAPL is right around the valuation of MSFT. If you think that's realistic, that's your right, but it's nowhere close in my universe.

    At the end of the day it's a risk. It just makes me laugh to see people that believe AAPL is going to trade at a low single digit multiple. It may end up being right, but I'm pretty sure it won't - and I've invested accordingly.
    7 Jan, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for your valuable contribution. It's clear from your comment that you DO understand what's going on. Maybe we'll be lucky enough to have you enlighten us further?
    7 Jan, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • They buy a new one when their contract expires after 2 years
    7 Jan, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • And Apple iCars
    7 Jan, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Did someone let Statler and Hilton from the Muppets balcony start commenting on SA?
    7 Jan, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • @css..... do you think Apple's future earnings are more suspect than say ...MSFT? just saying because I'm paying less right now for Apple future earnings than MSFT future earnings.

    Not everyone has a iPad either (although most will soon).... not everyone is happy with their current television viewing either..... errr China mobile.....what happens when 500m apple existing iTunes accounts continue to grow at 15% for 3 more years (that's 1 billion shopping customers) buying content, apps, shows, etc every year..... Mac growth showing no signs of slowing...... doesn't look like the build quality and lasting excellence of Apple products across any of their lines has a serious competitive threat (and please don't give me the 'android argument' across 20 different manufacturers)...doesn't look like they like building retail stores fast enough either - because I've been in 9 apple stores across the country over the past 6 mos. and there wasn't much walking around room.....

    I can't wait for news sources to stop comparing iPhone to Android. It's literally iPhone against every other smartphone maker and then claiming the entire smartphone industry is just killing Apple. Whatever, give me a break.


    Every Apple critic needs to quit trying to be the hero on predicting apple's downfall and appreciate what is occurring right under their noses.

    Do me a favor... and tell me what other companies deserve a greater premium for potential future earnings?
    8 Jan, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • @css... almost forgot, a huge dividend bump - probably will instantly jump it's yield to 3%, wouldn't want to get that either?
    8 Jan, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • funny how facebook is trying to get everyones credit card so they can monetize mobile......aapl already has most of our credit cards because of itunes....they could go social or stream video in a millisecond....
    8 Jan, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • iPhone compared to Android is like BMW 5-series compared to all makers of other mid-size 4 door automobile sedans, luxury as well as economy. One specific maker of a specific phone compared to a large group of other phone manufacturers who happen to share the same platform. I wish one person would post the actual numbers for the other makers - HTC, Samsung, etc. - number of actual units sold, and profits from them. Then there's a comparison.
    9 Jan, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • @Somporn,

    AAPL has no answer to the Samsung Galaxy Note 2, BMW comparison or not
    9 Jan, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Last chance to try and stifle the share price. Still long
    7 Jan, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • if you read between the lines, Apple is trying to tell us they are doing very,very well.In September at the IPhone 5 launch they announced hitting 400 now three months later we we have 500

    100 mill new accounts in the holiday quarter. Each brand new idevice requires a new account to say nothing of veteran users who tie new IStuff to old accounts. Very good news IMHO.
    7 Jan, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • The fact that Apple rhetoric is changing to a greater emphasis of the app store vs. device lineup probably means something. Good on one hand, because once everybody has a car, one is forced to keep buying gasoline, but not so good on the other -- gas is much less expensive than cars and the timing of purchase is more variable.
    7 Jan, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know if the rhetoric is "turning" towards apps this press release was about the App Store, but they have been publishing device sales as well. China first weekend iPhone sales, IPad mini first weekend sales. IPhone 5 first weekend sales. They announced when the iPad hit 100 million units.
    7 Jan, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • What's more there has historically been a very tight correlation between the number of iTunes accounts and the number of idevices purchased I am sure there are relationships between downloads and device purchases too.
    7 Jan, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Instinctively, I feel that there must be a saturation point to Apple device sales. There must be tens of millions of current indifferent iphone owners like myself out there. I have an iphone 4 that went off the contract sometime last year and am in no rush to upgrade because the phone still looks great, has a healthy battery, and does everything I want. However, I noticed that I have been downloading a LOT more in the past year. A $1 here, $3 there adds up, but it doesn't add up to the original cost of my phone.

    By the way, referring to a 'historical' correlation for a stock in an explosive growth phase (or possibly just coming off of it) is somewhat misleading. What's 'historical' for a company whose product lineup of portable devices didn't exist 5 years ago?
    7 Jan, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • children adopting tech devices at younger ages,,,,,think about the widening age group to fill...
    7 Jan, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • How much younger? Kids already have a cell phone by the time they are five/six/seven (or whenever they start school). And lots of parents teach their children using ipads by the time a child is two or three. Also, smaller children are unlikely to receive an Apple products, which are pretty fragile.
    7 Jan, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • really!!! you think that market is saturated................
    7 Jan, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think the market is saturated or anywhere close to it yet, but Apple P/E implies 10 years of profits at the current level. I am fairly sure we reach the saturation point before then. I do like Apple's cash moat and what the company's been doing with its cash, but also can't help but wonder whether it some point it could go the way of RIM. What I would like to see are some completely new products, not minor variations on the same theme -- a portable holographic movie player, let's say, not a mini ipad.
    8 Jan, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • well it's simple math little over 100 million ipads sold. Many to repeat customers so no, most people who could have not purchased one.
    15 Jan, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • What? Only over 40B. This is disappointment. It should be more like over 200B. It is ok if Android apps only 5B. No big deal. Apple download will go down.

    Apple will make over 50B in cash just this year. Here the analyst will say. Only 50B. It should be more like 100B. We should give Apple only 5 PE. It is ok if Google has 25 PE or Amazon has gazillion PE. Google and Amazon are growing. Apple might growing 35% per year now but it will stop growing soon.

    In summary Analyst are selling gold and buying junk. I do not understand this.
    7 Jan, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Buy low, sell high.

    It's really, *really* simple but so many don't understand what it means.
    7 Jan, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • What a bunch of crap this news posting is. Why not link to the correct article regarding App store growth here (and the one apologizing for the wrong analysis in the first article): http://bit.ly/XePcvg

    App store has grown 200% this year according to Apple. That's from ~$2B to ~$6B. Google play has grown quickly as well, but total revenues are still menial compared to what Apple is raking in!!!
    7 Jan, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Anything is simple if you truncate the definition enough. physics simply involves formulating the fundamental laws of nature in mathematical terms.

    Where's my Nobel Prize?
    7 Jan, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Why don't you check the dates of the articles before making rude comments? The one you linked to is from November 29. The one in the post is from November 30, and fully takes into account the info Apple provided for the Nov. 29 article.

    The Nov. 30 article correctly points out both Apple and App Annie's figures are accurate, they simply reflect different timeframes. Apple's numbers involve full-year 2011 and YTD 2012 figures, App Annie's the change of from January to October 2012.
    7 Jan, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • So, you are saying to buy AAPL now while it is low.
    7 Jan, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry for the ruddiness, but, as you well know, there are always many ways to represent a story. Your comment was "though the latter has been growing faster lately" while linking to the story that mostly discusses how marketers manipulate the numbers to fit the case that they are trying to make. Same way you have manipulated the story to make the case that you want to make. That was misleading and is indicative of a larger integrity problem in news "reporting." People who trust your reporting will not necessarily click on the link and read the article, they trust your editorial integrity to accurately report the story. Which you have not done.

    IMHO, you should have left that "commentary" out or should have also offered perspective by stating that while Google Play is growing faster (slightly), App store revenues are 5x larger ( http://tnw.co/U0PTHU )

    I've been growing my consulting business 100% per month for the past 3 months, beating "growth" rates of all big 3 consultancies, but I started from $0 in monthly revenues...
    8 Jan, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • "the story that mostly discusses how marketers manipulate the numbers to fit the case that they are trying to make."

    Wrong. The VentureBeat article points out why Apple and App Annie have different numbers. It makes no accusations of manipulation. Here's one paragraph:

    "I don’t know if you’re ready to sing Kumbaya yet, but I’m satisfied that the numbers add up, as well as they can, and that while Apple is correct in saying that app store revenues are still showing tremendous growth, App Annie is correct in saying that the iOS app store’s growth rate is significantly slowing, particularly when measured against Google Play."

    And I see you haven't owned up to falsely accusing me of linking to an "incorrect" article, when in fact the article I provided was newer and fully took into account the story you linked to.

    "you have manipulated the story to make the case that you want to make"

    Again false. The post mostly provides positive info on Apple. There just happens to be one line that (correctly) notes Google Play is growing faster off a smaller base. Making accusations of "manipulation" based on that suggests to me you're set on criticizing anything that isn't 100% positive on Apple.
    8 Jan, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • By "manipulating the story" I meant that you've gone out of your way to put a negative twist (however insignificant) on a positive news release (for Apple).

    I see that I'm not going to win the debate, but I think I have made my point quite clearly.
    8 Jan, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • SA is anti-AAPL editorially - check the news currents' tone - never glowing - and the proliferation of 'approved' anti-AAPL contributor articles. The one article I did try to submit was rejected - it was modestly positive AAPL, with some interesting options trades for every angle of that period's upcoming earnings. Lots of "although..." and "however, Android..." etc. in SA editorial comments. Not me complaining - just stating facts. Also never any banning or deletion of purely hostile, negative trolling commenters whom nobody wants to see (some have all lowercase letter handles...)
    9 Jan, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • I agree with SS and nothingtosay here. I too have noticed the slight negative tone in positive AAPL news. It's ok, everyone (bull or bears) will be found out after earnings.
    9 Jan, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Feel free to believe that if you want. I've received similar accusations of bias from Nokia and RIM fans. I hope you see the irony in that.

    It should be clear from the things I've written that I have a lot of respect for Apple. And for that matter, I'm typing this from a desk that has a well-used iPad 2 on it. But I don't expect to ever fully please anyone that falls in love with one gadget maker or another, and takes umbrage at any criticism.
    10 Jan, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • "500M active iTunes accounts." When is Apple going to realize that they have a half baked social media solution on their hands that they are not promoting as such. What is FB:
    - Free accounts
    - sharing of photos
    - messaging
    - gaming
    - ad-based revenues
    - 1B users
    What is Apple iCloud:
    - Free accounts (with email)
    - sharing of photos (Photo Stream)
    - messaging (iMessage)
    - Gaming (iDevices/iOS based)
    - ad-based revenues (iAd)
    - and so much more (music revenues/sharing, app revenues, in-game purchases, calendar sync, family calendars, etc.)

    Apple, please wake up and start marketing this amazing social networking platform that you have created!!!!!!!! $50B valuation increase just by marketing it correctly. Look at FB, $60B market cap and NO PROFITS!!!!
    7 Jan, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • I agree. As soon as they announced photo stream... for the new iPhone I thought to myself wow I devices now do everything the Facebook does
    7 Jan, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • nothing:

    But, Apple is always impaired by its own "walled garden" approach to everything. Facebook is universal and can be and is accessed by folks of every conceivable platform. Apple's approach will, no doubt, make it seamless and easy for all other iOS users, but will any internal system be usable and as convenient for outsiders? And, keep in mind that for every iPhone sold, Android alone sells over four.
    7 Jan, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Yet, iOS owns 65% of web traffic vs 35% of andriod as of November 2012.

    http://goo.gl/1UUcW
    7 Jan, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Absolutely correct! That is my biggest fear, history repeating itself for Apple (Mac vs. PC history) due to their closed eco-system.
    8 Jan, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • the ecosystem isn't really closed though, just walled. You can download any number of apps from outright competitors. Google, amazon, Nokia, Microsoft office will likely come to iPad. I have every single ereaders app on my iPad. A kindle or nook can't do that easily.
    15 Jan, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Only 20 Billion this year???? They guy down the street that twirls signs had predicted three trillion. SELL SELL....
    7 Jan, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Not only that, but his business has been "growing faster" than Apple's!!! Better buy some of twirl signs stock!
    8 Jan, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • When Apple releases their secret shoe phone (the iPed) the WOW factor will be back.
    8 Jan, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • How about the hand phone: http://bit.ly/13e028V
    8 Jan, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • I didn't recall Kate Beckinsale: only remembering Don Adams. I still think there would be some OMG factor to an iPed, especially in China.
    8 Jan, 09:14 PM Reply Like
Other date
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)