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Many were quick to pooh-pooh the famously anonymous Apr. 11 $1M bet on silver puts - which is...
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Friday, May 6, 2011, 9:18 AM ETMany were quick to pooh-pooh the famously anonymous Apr. 11 $1M bet on silver puts - which is now worth a cool $7M thanks to the subsequent spike in implied volatility. "The investor didn't get this trade right," Andrew Wilkinson writes, "He or she got it spectacularly right." For others, "it could be a long day in hell before investors feel they can afford to trade silver again."
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Are we stuck with this until the Muslims take over?
Traders taking up out of the money positions on situations where volatility is low compared to the potential for a gap don't need the price of the underlying to hit their strike. This is particularly true if the options have enough time to expiration.
Rather than waiting for expiration, the investor/speculator sells as soon as the gap occurs and volatility spikes.
No one ever gets pinned with their prior goof ball forecasts when things turn. In this case, all precious metals will climb as currency debasement inexorably occurs.