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Though many on the Street aren't happy with Intel's (INTC -6.3%) plans to invest heavily in...

  • Friday, January 18, 7:07 PM ET
    Though many on the Street aren't happy with Intel's (INTC -6.3%) plans to invest heavily in 450mm chip wafer lines, the company might have little choice. "If you stop, TSMC and Samsung close the gap - and you're toast," says Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon. All 3 companies invested in ASML (ASML) last year in part to further 450mm development. Some might be more comfortable with the spending if there were more signs Intel's efforts to boost demand for ultrabooks/convertibles using relatively costly CPUs are paying off - CES dispatches on Intel-powered gear were often critical. (more)
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This news story has 21 comments:

  •  
    I just don't see people getting excited about laptops again until they're as powerful as a cloud computer and as light as a smartphone.

    Those two things together may, in fact, be impossible. Which may simply mean the x86 laptop is going away. not tomorrow, but soon.
    18 Jan, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Here's the future:

    http://amzn.to/WeTlyn
    18 Jan, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    G, I found one for 199.99, already loaded, couldn't agree more.
    18 Jan, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    This is the biggest concern for MSFT. It's likely why to some extent MSFT seems to allow some pirating of Windows.

    I don't think it has any effect on Intel however with Core i5s showing up in some recent models. Processing power will always be valuable.
    19 Jan, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  •  
    think of the education field....laptop computers will be replaced by ipads and tablet like devices. who needs a big local hard drive now with wifi and cloud? or a dvd, cd player?
    18 Jan, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Could you write a thesis on a tablet? Can you imagine having multiple windows open with your research while writing your paper on a 9.7 inch display? Tablets are great for media consumption they are terrible for real work.
    19 Jan, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I have. I've even traded on a 7" WindowsXP based tablet.

    They're called 'ports'. I attached a keyboard and an external monitor.

    I can then go from location to location with a single device instead of trying to balance and juggle software installations, data, etc on multiple computers in multiple locations.

    ATOM isn't great for supporting multiple USB based displaylink monitors but which is why I like Core i5+ based products. And ARM is less powerful than ATOM currently (although that may be changing) and I don't even know if you can use displaylink monitors on ARM based products.

    I'm very enamored of new Win8 products running powerful INTC based processors.
    19 Jan, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Write a book, or even a term paper, on a tablet? I think not...
    Tablets will replace laptops for surfing and video viewing and e-readers for reading, but not for serious work. Laptops are well on the way to replacing desktops, but are not themselves disappearing yet (nor do I think they will). Tablets and a more powerful computer are complementary, not exclusive. The rumors of the death of the PC are just that. The boom is probably past, but they are a long way from dead. Both my kids have both Macs and iPads, and neither would part with either device, nor uses them for the same tasks.
    18 Jan, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    But I wonder if the Win8 "convertible" isn't on its way to replace tablets?

    Why compromise on functionality? Why fill your small bag with two devices when one will do?
    21 Jan, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I definitely see a lot of potential there. Aside from carrying just one device, the idea of having all of your apps and data shared by the same device appeals to me.

    But near-term, as far as Windows 8 convertibles go, I think there are three challenges:

    1) Consumers still just getting used to the Metro interface, simply because it's very different from both iOS/Android and the traditional Windows UI.

    2) It'll take time for the app ecosystem to develop. There still aren't a ton of Metro apps out there, and some of them (from the perspective of this Win. 8 user) feel half-baked.

    3) Reviews for the first batch of Windows 8 tablets and convertibles are very mixed. To a large extent, this is the fault of OEMs rather than Microsoft or Intel. But regardless, the hardware needs to improve. Lenovo seems to be doing some interesting stuff here, and Haswell/Bay Trail should help later this year.
    21 Jan, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    ummmm.....speaking as a student there is NO way I would consider writing a term paper on a tablet, unless it is docked into a keyboard which is an option..but then the tablet is essentially a laptop. I think it is most correct to view a tablet as a social, interactive device....and a tablet plus keyboard = a laptop.
    18 Jan, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    45 mm? I thought Intel was aiming for a 14 nanometer architecture....
    18 Jan, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Think you misread it Deja.
    18 Jan, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    450mm wafers, not 45nm transistors. Yes, they're working on 14nm transistors, but right now they are manufacturing their chips on 300mm wafers. Moving to 450mm wafers will mean lower fab costs in the long run, as they'll be able to put more dice on a wafer (~50% more), so if they can keep the yield per wafer up, that should lower the cost and keep margins healthy (as is what happened when they made the switch from 200mm wafers to 300mm wafers almost a decade ago)...
    18 Jan, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not 50%. Re-do your math.
    19 Jan, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Well, let's see. Going from 300mm to 450mm is a 50% increase in the area of the surface of the wafer (300+150), so ~50% more dice (approximately) able to be manufactured on the surface of that wafer. Don't see a problem with that math...
    20 Jan, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If 300 and 450 refer to the diameter then actually it would be a ratio of (450)^2/(300)^2 = 2.25 times more surface area.
    21 Jan, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    only one die goes on a wafer....("50% more die on a wafer" LOL! made my day)
    21 Jan, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  •  
    You misunderstand. 1 Wafer does not equal 1 Die, on several levels. That is to say, one Wafer does not yield a single Die, it yields (up to) hundreds of dice. It is true that in volume manufacturing, one Wafer will (generally) have only one KIND of die on it (one "product"), but there are many, many dice that are manufactured on a 300mm wafer, all of the same kind ("product").

    There are situations where more than one kind of die is manufactured on the same wafer (a "multi-part wafer"), but this is usually before going to high volume manufacturing...

    LOL, yourself... :-)
    21 Jan, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    OK, folks, you're picking a little too much nit. "~" means "approximately". (450-300)/300 = 0.5 ...or, in other words, about a 50% increase, or, in other words... Oh, never mind... :-)
    21 Jan, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  •  
    ...And I should have said "~50% increase in diameter", not surface area, so, my bad... Was typing quickly... 2.25 times the surface area (I don't think it's 2.25 times "more", but 2.25 times, which would be 1.25 times "more") is even better than what I was thinking of, in terms of improved manufacturing costs per wafer... As long as Intel can keep the yield-per-wafer up...
    21 Jan, 01:14 AM Reply Like
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