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Never mind the fiscal cliff and congressional insanity over the near term, says Marketwatch's...

  • Saturday, January 19, 4:34 PM ET
    Never mind the fiscal cliff and congressional insanity over the near term, says Marketwatch's Paul Farrell. We're facing a whopper of a recession down the road as America and the world economy face the early stages of a long era of “de-growth,” a reversal of economic growth and reduction in market growth as ever expanding world population puts increasing new stresses on all aspects of our life. Start planning ahead for an era of low returns and austerity, says Farrell, as these macroeconomic trends build to critical mass, primed to ignite, explode.
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This news story has 27 comments:

  •  
    Please leave Farrell over on MarketWatch. It's bad enough to see his "the sky is falling" garbage over there, without being reminded here.
    19 Jan, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    So Rob - thanks for the editorial comment - you got any ideas on what to expect for the next 5 years? I'd be interested.
    19 Jan, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    That article is making predictions about the year 2050.

    Now, first of all the author and Buffett will both be dead by then, and probably a majority of the folks currently investing will be too. So how will we ever know if his predictions are correct?

    Secondly, starting with Thomas Malthus, none of the predictions of this genre have turned out to be correct. So why would we now believe this one?
    20 Jan, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Good Grief.

    Talk about all the worst case scenarios playing out.

    Maybe we'll stop spending Trillions fighting worthless wars overseas? Ok that takes care of #9.

    Less than zero growth - well lets cut down the size of government and tell folks to take care of themselves..... Hey, suddenly we have some growth!!! that takes care of #8.

    Seven Bilion to 10 Billion ensures De-growth??? Now we are back to the idea - 1. that population growth won't slow in countries as they get richer (they almost always do), and 2. that somehow we'll stop finding ways to innovate and improve. Perhaps someone really will find a solar panel that powers everything! Perhaps we'll invent new crops that grow in Africa! Takes care of #4 and #5 and #6 and #7.

    Carbon Dioxide will kill us? Well don't trees use Carbon Dioxide? Maybe we'll double the number of trees? Maybe we'll invent a new fuel that takes carbon dioxide from the air and creates energy!! Takes care of #3.

    Stock traders bubble? Use your common sense.... let the bubble burst and swoop in and make some money!! Just ensure governments let the losers lose and not the taxpayers!!! Takes care of #2.

    Economic growth on long term decline - specifically in the USA. Well that because our idiot government takes over more and more of the private sector. Return the government to the role of only doing what it is not reasonable for the individual to do - and you'll find tons of innovation, wealth creation, new technology, and good times everywhere. Takes care of #1.

    Whew, ok. Life will continue. Freedom, liberty, hard work and innovation and some common sense can overcome all these impending doom obstacles. Notice I didn't mention government in that statement!
    19 Jan, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    It is not in the nature of human beings to stop growing. Everybody wants to improve their life and standard of living. It is not a financial or economic issue, it is a political issue. The world governments need to create an environment where business and people can thrive and do their own thing without a lot of restraints. The world will survive if the politicians will just get out of the way.
    19 Jan, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    .....what he said.
    19 Jan, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  •  
    hotpbwiki - so what will happen with 0-1% population growth, productivity improvements and lower workforce participation?
    19 Jan, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    It isn't the Sky Falling, it is the Devaluation of the Dollar. Big Ben's Rainbow Stew served up to those who will work, then raked away for the New Normal crowned by Socialism. It is a Chicago Thing so I'm told (Xanax + Ambien = Acorn is OK). And by the way, push the Acorn Prescription back; it makes you thing Everything is just fine and It is OK to kill yourself and others. In spite of ALL that, we slow the devaluing by making a minor profit (After Tax).
    19 Jan, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The result of which is, as you guess it, war.

    The world had been relatively 'peaceful' in the latter half of the twentieth century and up until the second decade of the next, which is now.

    In retrospect, this seventy (70) years of relative 'peace' and 'tranquility' is but a recess and a break, imo.

    The ignition point of this breakout is of course, uncharted and unabated worldwide population growth.
    19 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "The world had been relatively 'peaceful' in the latter half of the twentieth century"

    ... other than Stalin and Mao killing millions, genocide by Cambodian Communists, the Cold War, repression in Eastern Europe and many proxy wars in that Cold War (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan), not to mention Ethiopia at war with Somalia in 70s and 2000s, 4 mideast wars between 1948 and 1972, and Lebanon's civil war, former Yugoslavia and several African nations plus Indonesia torn apart by civil wars, plus revolutions, coups and military takeovers galore from Cuba to Iran to Nicaragua to Uganda, and Saddam Hussein starting 3 wars that killed millions and ending up deposed in a 4th war, ... I mean OTHER THAN THAT ... and the threat of nuclear annihilation capping it off, it was a 'peaceful' last 70 years.

    LOL. We could use a 'break' from that.
    19 Jan, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yes, we need new markets and opportunities for investors, particularly those in the main, who demand honesty and trust.
    19 Jan, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yo Paul, I have a bridge to lease to ya! Putz.
    19 Jan, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Growing population and austerity? How is that going to work? It is not the growing population that will put stress on us - it is the fact that more and more people want to get some money for their work. Cheap labour is going. Ok, you might say machines will do the production. But then, who will have the income to buy the products? Eventually there should be a crisis because of all the imbalance in the world but when is a matter of a big big question.
    19 Jan, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  •  
    it sounds like he's ~wildly~ extrapolating on buffett's comment. of course we'll have another recession at some point. that's all buffett is saying. ("are we going to have another bubble and recession at some point?" "no, in fact i think we will be in a permanent bull market until the end of time!") and of course it's inevitable. farrell seems to interpret this as, Well, back to the caves, folks! civilization had a pretty good run, for sure!
    19 Jan, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Hilarious. Expanding needs and wants of increasing global population are going to result in less demand and less production, rather than more?

    In what parallel universe is this relationship going to occur, may I ask?
    19 Jan, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    That idiot can skulk over there.
    19 Jan, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Damn, I thought I was going to miss it.
    19 Jan, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The ten year cycle is bound to keep happening as long as real issues are not addressed. Ben Beranke can continue to apply QE every few months but without any new capital, well, printing more money may not be an option anymore.
    This cycle only means more devaluation of the dollar, and shortly this will translate into the question on everyone's mind of: Is this worth my return on investment?
    19 Jan, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Farrell is a perpetual chicken little...please don't give him another voice on seeking alpha....I don't even know why MarketWatch gives that blowhard a voice.
    19 Jan, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  •  
    What we are experiencing is Crises of Democracies - inability of democratic form of government to say no to some of its citizens since everybody wants 'some'. This is nothing new - it's a continuation of individual versus group struggle that was so clearly won by democracy and capitalism at the end of 20th century.

    But this will be solved as well, just as previous ideological conflicts were. In fact, it's it will be easier to solve than previous conflicts - the rich and productive will simply move to countries that promote and foster growth and wealth creation. The rest of nations will either follow or become France (couldn't help myself:)).
    19 Jan, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Really - what's China's population growth rate? How about the US, and Europe and Japan? What's happening to workforce participation in US? Do you think we'll have more than 150 mil in the workforce in 2020? Do you think Japan has set the image of what will happen to US, Europe?

    Personally, I think we'll be lucky for 1-1.5% GDP growth in the next 5 years. How about them wages? Right, you think real wages will be increasing in the next 5 years? Driven by what? I could go on and on. I've been asking for a solid case for 3% GDP growth for the next 5 years and have not received such from anyone. Please provide.
    20 Jan, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Mark. Cheap, domestically produced energy will provide the growth. The money from producing our own energy stays here, produces jobs, buys houses, pays taxes. $300B that we don't ship out every year. Price advantage and stability due to the stranded nature of the fuel, high transportation and liquefaction costs will limit LNG exports keeping the US advantage as a manufacturing destination for energy intensive industries and plants that can use NG as a feedstock like chemicals and fertilizer. Any economy has to be fed to grow, we finally have something that can feed our economy.
    21 Jan, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Hendershott - I am very HOPEFUL for our energy future. Lots of good things seem to be happening - hopefully we can manage those opportunities to produce real live actual benefits that will provide growth and competitive advantages. We shall see.
    21 Jan, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Got gold, bitchez?
    20 Jan, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Paul Farrell?? yawn...
    20 Jan, 03:03 AM Reply Like
  •  
    We haven't even started to deleverage yet. We are actually taking on more debt instead. Deflation is about De-leveraging. You can postpone it. That's what the Japanese have done. But de-leveraging is the way the sane animal deals with the imbalances of over-inflation during the expansion season (growth: 1983-2001). The insane animal insists on GROWTH ALL THE TIME and attempts to simulate growth without the regenerative effects of 1) destruction of worthless debt on overpriced bubble objects of wealth; 2) restoration of a pool of savings (through higher interest rates) which will become the driving energy, the fuel, of the next expansion; 3) diminishment of the wealth divide that threatens our democracy.

    The rich people don't want democracy. They want to be kings. They want feudalism to return. Bernanke is the instrument these would-be kings are playing their tune on.

    Debt is like snow on one's roof. Eventually it collapses the roof -- and then the Real Recession begins.
    21 Jan, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I Heard .223 Remington is up 200% since Dec.
    21 Jan, 09:02 AM Reply Like
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