Initial Jobless Claims: -5K to 330K vs. 360K consensus, 335K prior (revised). Continuing claims...

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bbro Comments (7895)
 
Seasonal factors...this year 1/19/13 1.323 last year 1/21/12 1.12....
still the direction indicates ....no recession....
24 Jan, 08:35 AM Reply Like

mrdirt Comments (224)
 
Or companies are down to bare bones, nobody to layoff. Notice the reason for the lower Initial Claims number is Few Layoffs.
24 Jan, 08:44 AM Reply Like

OptionManiac Comments (3097)
 
Duh, you can only claim if you are laid off.
24 Jan, 08:55 AM Reply Like

GaltMachine Comments (930)
 
bbro,

Why are they using a more aggressive seasonal factors? Do you have any insights on this? Is it a function of GDP expectations?

That's almost a 20% increase in the factor. Use the same factor as last year and you get closer to 390,000 claims.

The NSA numbers are actually higher y/y so for me it is confusing.

Thank you for providing the factors, I am not sure people clearly understand how they get this number. I know I didn't until you explained it.
24 Jan, 09:26 AM Reply Like

Macro Investor Comments (5770)
 
More manipulation, right? The economy must be doing poorly, no?
24 Jan, 08:51 AM Reply Like

jhooper Comments (4705)
 
Jan Releases

Emp Mfg Consensus 0.0 Actual -7.78
NAHB Housing Consensus 48 Actual 47
Phil Fed Consensus 5.6 Actual -5.8
Mich Conf consensus 75 Actual 71.3
Rich Fed Mfg Consensus 5 Actual -12

There are still too many mixed signals. The pattern suggests continuing malaise.
24 Jan, 08:58 AM Reply Like

MLP Trader Comments (428)
 
I would love for you to explain to me why the seasonal adjustment factor for this week was raised from 40,000 last year to 106,000 this year.

To a novice like me it looks like 66,0000 claims were just adjusted out of existence.
24 Jan, 09:17 AM Reply Like

RobertWhite Comments (3)
 
Good numbers are manipulations,
Bad numbers are facts?
24 Jan, 03:08 PM Reply Like

OptionManiac Comments (3097)
 
On this site, always.
24 Jan, 05:28 PM Reply Like

jhooper Comments (4705)
 
Good numbers are manipulations,
Bad numbers are facts?

This sounds just like a gov regulator.
24 Jan, 05:38 PM Reply Like

anonymous#12 Comments (552)
 
Lakshman Achuthan from the ECRI took a lot of doomers thru the slaughterhouse....ouch!
24 Jan, 08:59 AM Reply Like

jhooper Comments (4705)
 
"A Labor Department spokesman warned that the number of application was estimated for California, Virginia and Hawaii because of the holiday-shortened week. The drop followed similar patterns in prior years, in which claims tempered early in January and bounced back in February and March. Holidays and starts of new quarters often bring claim volatility."
24 Jan, 09:13 AM Reply Like

WMARKW Comments (8554)
 
Total Non-Farm Payroll still the same as it was 4 years ago at 134 mil. - wow this economy is really sailing.
24 Jan, 09:15 AM Reply Like

kcr357 Comments (511)
 
Are the numbers BS? Of course
Do I give a sh*t? No. stopped caring a while ago; the market will continue to go up as rainbows and unicorns eminate from made up stats. Whatever.
24 Jan, 10:05 AM Reply Like

Padawan learner Comments (55)
 
Kcr357 your comment may just be the smartest thing I heard all day!
There is the economy and there is the market, right now the market is doing its “own thing”
24 Jan, 12:08 PM Reply Like

Spencer Knight Comments (352)
 
The market moves based on future expectations. Not what happened last week or last month or last year. If people are expecting the economy to improve in a year or two, then you buy now before prices get pushed up too high.
24 Jan, 02:51 PM Reply Like