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"Apple's (AAPL) glory days are now behind it," said FBN's Shebly Seyrafi on Thursday morning...
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Saturday, January 26, 3:54 PM ET"Apple's (AAPL) glory days are now behind it," said FBN's Shebly Seyrafi on Thursday morning with the stock at $450. On Sept. 13 - the day after the iPhone 5 launch and the shares at $680 - Seyrafi reiterated a Buy rating and boosted his price target to $1,000. (FBN now maintains an Outperform on Apple with a lowered target of $650.)
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Beating all other smart phones !!! (RIMM) (AAPL) (GOOG)
We upgraded to Samsung Galaxy Note 2:
I liked a @YouTube video http://t.co/1D4CtQge Why The Samsung Galaxy Note 2 Is Better Than Your Phone *If you don't have one* [3D
Take a look again in the $380s
Guess what, dumb phones was a low margin business too, until Apple ripped the smart phone business wide open. Computers are low margin, so are tablets. Apple just keeps getting more and more customers.
Love the products, but dont love stocks.
O and I just looked it up, Motorola had gross margins of 33.5% in Q1 2004. Remember how popular the Motorola Razor was???? How'd that end up?
http://bit.ly/10YQWOc
"O and I just looked it up, Motorola had gross margins of 33.5% in Q1 2004. Remember how popular the Motorola Razor was???? How'd that end up?"
I don't think people really realize how powerful Apple is as a software company. Ya they make sexy hardware that people want, but without iTunes store, Apple would not have been successful, at all. Same with the TV set. I'm not convinced they're coming out with a TV, because I think they could just release software for their AppleTV.
The first to have an all encompassing media service wins, Apple and Amazon realizes this, but I think Apple will be the first to get there.
M, these folks who can afford it will be upgrading and rarely head to the low rent part of town to get their phones unlocked and all the other junk that goes with the give away two for one wannabe hip young club kid/MC Rapper market.
And we have a pipeline chock full of innovation so we won't be relying solely on handsets going forward though we will continue to dominate. And as for that increased competition that Samsung is warning about...could they mean Apple coming into China?
-Reinvention of the user interface (probably Siri-based)
- customized content "on demand" iTunes for TV
- Custom content equals highly accurate user profile equals laser targeted ads equals huge ad revenues for Apple
- Apple now morphs into a hardware/software/content media platform. TV from both a user and media stand point reinvented
This was Steve Jobs plan all along. Apple is going to be laughing all the way to the bank. This will be the next big innovation. And the analysts and knuckle headed naysayers don't have the intelligence or the vision to see what is right in front of them.
Samsung says that had already sold 100 millions Galaxy phones $RIMM $AAPL too late for Blackberry 10? http://t.co/TrhrN2iv
Samsung says that had already sold 100 millions Galaxy phones $RIMM $AAPL too late for Blackberry 10? http://t.co/TrhrN2iv
There were 37.1 million flat panel TVs sold in the US in 2012, and Samsung has the leading market share at around 20%. Lets assume Apple's TV, if it ever comes out, takes a very generous 10% market share. Thats 3.7 million TV's. They'll probably price the TV's in the $2,000 range (premium brand), so they'll make $720 a TV, assuming a 36% gross margin given in their guidance. That gets you an additional $2.6 billion in profit, per year. They made $41 billion last year. Thats a 6% increase in profits. How about assuming a 30% market share (about 11 million TVs, per year) and $1,000 margins, thats $11 billion, but how long can that last? People don't buy a new TV every two years, or break them that often. BTW the average flat panel TV sells for about $1200 in the US, so its unlikely that Apple could sell that many TVs at such a high price point.
A China Mobile announcement would be huge, but selling in China is going to mean margins are going to have to come down. I'm not sure how that affects the stock. Also the fact their cash horde is so big is absurd, they need to hire a CFO to manage that, or set aside half of it for a rainy day, and start paying a dividend based on a % of profits. That would get the stock moving.
The second issue is if Apple is such a great innovator as most people seem to think then why are they sitting on $137 billion in cash, surely they can't expect to burn through $100 billion while the US figures out what they are gonna do about ever passing a balanced budget or raising the debt ceiling, the truth to me seems to be that they came out with the iPhone and iPod that at the time were a revolution and iTunes also was a great innovation but now all they seem to come out with is a larger screen or a longer screen or some other "I" product that does the same thing as the rest of their lineup, Apple sells more iPhone 5's than any other handset on the market but if Samsung only had 1 handset then I bet they'd sell a lot more but Samsung has dozens of current models. I just can't be convinced that Apple is today an innovative company, they are becoming a utility, maybe AppleTV will be innovative but if all you are gonna do is stream the same crap that Comcast or Direct or Hulu or Netflix or any other content provider then I doubt there will be value in that and as for buying an AppleTV, well there is only 1 reason that I'd buy an Apple phone, Reliability and robust O/S, I like Android but it's not as reliable as iOS is but my TV's are perfectly reliable so why do I need Apple for that.
I'd say if Apple is content socking away 40-50 billion a year in profits rather than inventing anything new then I'll move it to the same category as CSX but if they ever start to innovate again then maybe the will be the first trillion dollar market cap.
At $450 a share though it looks like a value play as with $140 a share in cash and the div. plus the $40 to $45 a share in profits a year they ought to be worth at least $400 - $500
"At $450 a share = $140 a share in cash and the div. + the $40 to $45 a share in profits a year, worth at least $400 - $500"/ share
^ Job Description for the Sell Side WS Analyst
Just take a look of that price curve over the past 10 years. It is an exact mapping to that famous curve of 'elation, euphoria, bursting, crash, dejection, depressed, and finally abandonment'.
Whenever something gets perpendicular up and up, remember this, you've seen it before!
Will this happen again? Who knows. I think the odds are pretty good. But by no means a certainty. Actually the only thing in this world that is certain is death, and you know what? They're working on that one too.
Oddly enough, I held AAPL shares in the past. I've also owned various Apple computers for over 18 years. I like Apple products, though some of the recent changes are not much to my liking. On AAPL shares, when everyone from barristas, to taxi drivers, to Jim Cramer was saying "buy", then it was time for me to say "bye".
Hiring a tax preparer to file considering the complexity of the tax code is also a form of tax as well. I am retired and do not want the stress to figuring out those numbers. My annual charge by an H&R Block CPA is about $400. I do consider this as a form of tax as well.
Frankly I do not understand why the code be made so complex, but then it could be construed as a cottage industry inside and outside of the 3 levels of government.
Personally I am totally amazed, flabbergasted, and frozen like a deer staring at the glaring bright headlights of an incoming auto.
He was wrong on Sept. 13, why would he be right now that he's flipped 180 degrees?
I wonder if Shelby thinks he deserves a bonus this year for his spot on call on Apple?
Look back and/or remember all the rubbish they were floating out concerning the problems Apple was having supposedly having with scheduling of materials so what do they do for 12-23-2013 ? why they sharpen up their pencils where Apple just cannot get there!!!
Bah, Humbug !!! AND a POX on all of their houses.....
Everyone already owned AAPL stock when the analysts came our with crazy estimates of $1,000! Of course the AAPL fanbois believed it. But, professionals fell for it too. It was gonna be "different this time."
AAPL is a great company with fantastic products. But, if you want to see the path AAPL is headed then check the chart of MSFT 1997-2000. Or, check a CSCO chart....ugly stuff!
If you own AAPL there is only one thing to do...SELL!!!
Look at the chart, it took almost 7 years to ramp it up to $700/share. Last Friday it reached its 52-week low of ~ $440.
What does this mean? It means that the strong hand, the big boys had successfully boosted it to the peak over many years, then it dropped precipitately to its 52-week in 3 to 4 months. Slow but steady rise first, then rapid ramp up, then peak, then crash - a classical pattern - - completing a rapid passing of loot from the weak hand to the strong hand.
Worse still, the money that were sucked in at the end period to propel it to the $700 level was phenomenal. I suppose a retail guy could buy a minimum 1 share, but still that was $700 plus commission. Block trades amount to Billions each day. A look at the technical indicator Chirkin Money Flow shows that massive dollar outflows had already consistently occurred in the same 3 to 4 month period.
The perfect ambush is now complete.
ROFL! Loudest ever I made! Double ROFL!!!
While I have you, can you ask your friends if they prefer Coke vs. Pepsi? I may have to rebalance my retirement portfolio based on the response.
As for appl I bought in at 485 and again in the 440's I think the end will come after a few more waves to ridiculous heights. I am willing to keep buying at certain price points and collect some dividends.
China is potential. Locked in market share in the US provides a cushion to this volatility especially in recurring revenues like iTunes and soon itv a la carte purchases. My experience tells me to prepare for more pain but I am in accumulation mode so I will swallow hard, bite the bullet, stare the herd in the eye and buy buy buy. I hopefully aquire additional shares cheaper and ride a nice bounce back over 700.
APPL just needs to put a sweet word processor on these iPads and then it is game, set match. Sadly, they refuse to do this probably to ensure iMac sales. Am I the only one who feels this way?
Long Nok APPL
Worthless.
It clearly underscores that both swing trade investors and analysts are genuinely idiots who can be duped on a dime. What will they do in three months from now? Change their opinion? Believe me they'd change it in 30 seconds if AAPL management spilt the stock, or increased a dividend, increased a buyback or announced added sales in China or a new product.
I only hope that all of the recent sellers during this capitulation got wiped in the process.
Before you make an arrogant comment like that do some research on what sort of companies they are. You small minded people just display your insecurities. And I'm sure Tim Cook and Jony Ives don't lay awake over those companies.
Wikipedia.org
Nokia Corporation is a Finnish multinational communications and information technology corporation. And what I gleamed from http://seekingalpha.co..., Nokia earns most of its money from its JV in networking services with Siemens.
Samsung Group a South Korean multinational conglomerate company is the largest South Korean chaebol.
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (Korean: 삼성전자) is a South Korean multinational electronics company. Samsung Group and the world's largest information technology company by revenues since 2009.[3] Samsung Electronics has assembly plants and sales networks in 61 countries and employs around 221,000 people.[4]
Samsung Electronics is the world's largest mobile phone maker by 2011 unit sales and world's second-largest semiconductor chip maker by 2011 revenues (after Intel Corporation). It has been the world's largest television manufacturer since 2006 and the world's largest maker of LCD panels for eight consecutive years.[5] It has the largest marketshare worldwide in memory chips.[6] The company was the world's largest vendor of smartphones in 2011.[7]
One can only imagine what is in the Apple pipeline for the future. Steve Jobs certainly didn't lie on his bed looking at the ceiling during his illness.
So, I say to all the naysayers. you will eat your words.
If you are not willing to give equal space to all analysts who speak, then please stop cherry-picking quotes from obscure analysts.
If there are no Market Currents on a Saturday, I am OK with not reading something that was said on Thursday.
fools.
Wish I were that smart, but that'll benefits all of us. ~ Woof
http://bit.ly/WfZhsX
Even among the "rest", Smartphone consumers don't have a clear preference for the iphone over Nokia/WP/Blackberry etc.
The potential global smartphone market is much bigger than the US market, which is much closer to saturation than the rest of the world. Apple's operator subsidized model just doesn't work in most of the rest of the world, and with their high unsubsidized prices, there is no way they can be competitive in the rest of the world. Current and potential smartphone owners globally are far from locked in to the Apple ecosystem and are much more open to others. Hence, unless Apple changes their business model, they are pretty close to the peak of their growth curve.
I first started by showing that projections of a $1000 stock price were very unlikely to be achieved.
To do this, I first determined the worldwide market size for all of Apple's products (smartphones, tablets, PCs, and media players) and their current share for each product. The result was that they currently had 21% of a $750 billion market ($156 billion in revenues).
I then showed that if they were to grow at 20% annually over the next 5 years as most analysts projected, their revenues would be around $400 billion. If the w/w market were $1 trillion at that time due to rapid growth in smartphones and tablets, this would double their market share. Extremely unlikely.
But if they could achieve a 25% share at that time ($250 billion in revenues), then average annual growth would be a more achievable 10%. Furthermore, if they could maintain their net income at the current 25% of revenues (at that time), they could earn $60+ billion and have a crack at $800-1000.
So the $1000 target was only achievable in the best of cases.
As it became clearer that competition was mounting and that market saturation and affordability were important factors, I felt that margins would have to erode and that revenue growth would be slower. Several months ago, I commented that revenue growth was slowing rapidly and that earnings were peaking and would fall by next year.
During all of this, SA articles repeatedly claimed how cheap Apple was considering trailing P/Es, PEGs, and projected future growth. They believed the analysts who have been late to realize what is happening for whatever reasons. I commented on most of these articles, showing how 20% annual growth ad infinitum was unachievable, evidently to deaf ears.
The unfolding of events has happened faster than I thought. So what now?
Revenues will be up maybe 10-15% this year, but earnings will be flat to down. The decline in earnings will continue next year and will bounce around after that.
I expect them to earn $30-$45 billion annually over the next 5 years. So what is the stock worth?
The DCF value of a $30 billion annual earnings stream at a 10% discount rate is $306 billion. Adding $137 billion current cash to this gives $443 billion valuation. Repeating this calc for continual earnings streams of $35, $40, and $45 billion annually gives fair valuations of $494 billion, $545 billion, and $595 billion.
So if they can continue to earn in the $30-45 billion range, the stock should be fairly valued at $480-$650. My feeling is that they should be able to maintain earnings at least in the lower half of this range, and that fair value is $500-550. At the current $440 price, there is limited downside risk but also limited upside.
Has Apple stopped innovating? Hardly. There have been numerous substantially improved phone upgrades and launches. The ipad mini defines a new format for tablets going forward. New, cheaper iphones will soon be launched to establish the brand (and the eco-system) in developing markets. Looks like Apple has actually been innovating at a faster clip these days than prior to 2010. Pundits did not proclaim the death of Apple while they improved and upgraded the ipods and earlier iphones. Apple TV is coming and according to the late Steve Jobs it will revolutionize the TV experience just as Itunes did to the music business. So we may have a 1 to 1 1/2 year interval from the ipad min launch and the next game changing product. This does not diminish the pace of their innovation on a historical basis. On the marketing side, Apple now dominates the college textbook maket via the ipad. Their operating system is far more secure than Android, thus, they are rapidly penetrating the business community as the preferred mobile device and eco-system. Stats show that people who buy one Apple product generally buy a second and a third. They are doing precisely what they need to do to grow sales beyond the affluent American consumer.
I am long Apple but for now, I won't fight the media feeding frenzy.
I think you missed the original iMac, then the multi-colour iMacs, and of course the Apple Cube. Also, you missed touting the effectiveness of the iTunes Store, which was a big move for Apple that led to many other products.
Do you have a source for statistics showing multiple Apple product purchases by consumers? I see this often repeated, based upon annecdotal evidence, yet I have yet to see a reliable survey (or statistics) breaking down the effectiveness of this claim. There is data on repeat sales of iPhones, yet that data on other Apple products is lacking. Thanks in advance.
(1) Inspite of being a genius of a company to invent smartphone, they let the competitors take over one by one. Today google is number one is software and samsung is number one is smartphones. Tomorrow there will be many pushing apple further down.
(2) They haven't fixed the adobe flash dispute. It is ok in the beginning but even now if apple phone cannot display adobe flash, it is a big drawback. I am amazed that they don't exhibit any business sense.
(3) In spite of demonstrated huge market for a mini ipad, it took real long time for them to bring one to market. This is not acceptable from a leader.
(4) In spite of huge demand in the developing world for a lower priced smartphone, they refuse to admit or acknowledge the fact. Thus they dont have a smartphone at a different price point that caters to the unsubsidized developing world market.
(5) In spite of growing popularity of large screen in various segments esp those who love to watch video on the smartphone, they refuse (listen to their earnings transcripts) to budge. Again, they just have one smartphone model. Wont it create a another growth channel if they deliver iphone - iphone mini, iphone max, iphone premium. It is simple business sense.
(6) On TV front, if apple comes with a simple tv device with builtin wifi, touchscreen remote, ipad interface there will be a huge market. Just like iphone evolved from iphone to iphone5, once in market it can be evolved. But the thing is they have a product in the market and ahead of the game. Talking for years 'intense interest', 'pull strings' is no good while the competition already have launched smart tv's in the market.
(7) Constant problem with supplychain. 'unable to meet the demand' is no excuse in business. Can we learn something from samsung which mass produced 50 different models which has almost same or more features than iphone
(8) In the past 2 years they didnt bring a single new innovation to the market inspite of $100 billion available for R&D at their discretion. This is totally in contrast to how google keeps its brains working on different interesting project. If they dont have any ideas, how about a simple touchscreen dishwasher that can sing a song while washing dishes. Fear of failure never held Jobs from bringing many ideas to market.
(9) In spite of so many years of iphone existence it is simply not available on many carriers both in US and worldwide. The prominent that comes to mind is china mobile. Does it take so many years and still working on a deal to just able to comeup with an agreement to make iphone available on worlds largest carrier ?
(10) Letting $100 billion sit there and loose value to inflation is the most irresponsible thing to do. It is neither helping to grow the business or it is helping the shareholders.
Without Jobs, apple simply doesn't have the vision or strategy or innovation to clear through the competition to stay on the top either in sales, margins. Obsession with quality is not an excuse to loose the market and enter a dark future. 5 years from now (if they don't change) apple will still be there but is taken over by everyone.
1] Samsung's phones, if not quite as good as iPhones, are close enough that it doesn't matter.
2] The single biggest negative for apple in the past few months was that great samsung commercial where the folks waiting on line for new iPhones were shown to be psuedo-hip posers.
3] The second biggest negative was the map debacle. The apple maps program was a huge step up compared to the no turn-by-turn, glacially slow google maps it replaced (new google maps is something else). But apple lost the PR war so badly that even my wife (who has an iPhone) refused to upgrade to IOS6 because of it.
4] Apple has 137 billion in the bank. If apple was coke and pepsi was pulling even or ahead, what do you think they would do? Advertise -- swamp the world with iPhone, iPad, iPod and iMac advertisements -- 137 billion buys an awful lot of air time.
5] The war is for market share. Nothing else matters. Apple doesn't need to make any more money. They have plenty. They need to win the market share war or they will be marginalized exactly as they were in the nineties. If they win the market share war the company is worth upwards of three trillion dollars. Figure it out yourself.
FROM CNBC NEWS regarding the COMCAST buying the rest of GE's Stake in NBCUniversal:
"Porter Bibb, managing partner at Mediatech Capital Partners, said on CNBC the deal puts Comcast in the driver's seat. "They own the content and the distribution pipes and they're very technologically adept," he said. "I don't know of any other media company that can control its own destiny as well as Comcast."
This was posted Feb 12th, 2013. Since then, without any MATERIAL AAPL news, the stock has tumbled from $470 to now $405 as of this moment. It seems the only news has been negative "speculation" and/or "conjecture" from various financial analysts and from CNBC reporters which continues send chills in the trading and investment world about AAPL.
I have been actively trading and investing for over 25 years and have never seen such an apparent media assault against any one company for such an extended period of time, mostly over "conjecture" and "opinion", not fact.
Does anyone else see what I am seeing or am I just another delusional AAPL shareholder who doesn't like to see such a strong and proven company be so subjectively beaten without any material facts to support the beatings or any retribution accountability for the misrepresentation of a great company?
Like an exponential rise. AAPL was last at $400 a year ago.