Market Currents
GDP Q4 : -0.1% vs. +1.0% consensus, +3.1% prior.
-
Wednesday, January 30, 8:30 AM ETGDP Q4 : -0.1% vs. +1.0% consensus, +3.1% prior.
Other date
Latest Macro Articles
This news story has 25 comments:
While it's important to look for the positive, it is indeed a negative number so sometimes a cigar is just a cigar after-all.
This is of course before the onset of the recent tax increases so in theory this quarter should be worse which means ....????
Now I've always had a problem how inventories are counted. If they're growing, that's supposedly a positive for gdp - yet it means supply is outstripping demand. Last quarter they were being drawn down, which is a good thing for future growth, but they subtracted from gdp.
I don't think Q1 will be particularly strong with lackluster business and consumer spending (which were large in Q4), but I don't look for a big drag from either govt or inventories - inventories should add to gdp. It's still early yet, though it's really too hard to predict anything yet since we've barely started to see January data.
With a 2 % increase in payroll taxes don't expect the next quarter to be much better!! The market will react accordingly!!
Better buy your metals soon!!
Whatever makes you sleep better...This was way overdue with all the manipulation...Put whatever spin you want on it !!
" that are very important to follow in relation to GDP....they have improved..."
Calculated Risk has a very good overview of that here:
"Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 2.2% annualized rate, and residential investment increased 15.3%, equipment and software increased 12.4%. That is a solid increase in fixed investment."
Read more at http://bit.ly/XipEN4
I get that. All I am saying is that we had a negative GDP number before the impact of the recently passed taxes has taken effect.
So in theory this could be a negative quarter which would make two consecutive negative quarters, isn't that a recession?
I must admit, I am bamboozled by this development and having followed you for years, I suspect you are as well.
Don't forget that new 2% payroll tax!! That is going to drag GDP down as well. A ton of people i know personally aren't happy with less money weekly, while oil is heading up with gas prices to follow soon as well..
Watch the metals take off soon...Ben didn't have a good nights sleep for sure!!
Go do somedue diligence and maybe you will understand the full picture here...You choice..I am only the messenger..
Looking to read all the spinning on this...amazing!!
Please provide an indication of why you think the sky is NOT falling?
"Tax increases will have no meaningful impact on growth"
How do you know that? What theory is that based upon?
"Tax increases will have no meaningful impact on growth, "
Sorry but you are dead wrong..That 2% payroll tax increase gives the consumer less money to spend..Hence GDP WILL be effected!!
Now lets not even think about the fiscal cliff!!!!!
Maybe not, even though it's a rigged market some folks are going to be scared away...Can't wait to read all the posts how this is actually good news from all the bulls!!
Bring it on guys....Gold pre-market up $15 bucks already!!
Serious?
"Europe is going into a recession. All US citizens just got a tax increase that should reduce US GDP which means less business. Meanwhile, the market is moving up or moving sideways??
I think the market is being manipulated which means all bets are off. I am in a defensive investment posture now."
From a trader i trust !!!! Strap in folks..
1. I think this number is completely manipulated. I don't think GDP went down 0.1% I would venture GDP is down3% - 7%.
2. we are still not getting anywhere near the real unemployment / labor rates. millions have fallen out of the labor pool and are not being counted. not only are they not counted, they will not be returning because their jobs are not returning. The millions of jobs we lost almost none will return.
3. the 3% tax hike on payroll / income is not new, but you then have to remember back to 2008 when Obama promised to "lower" taxes, only to lower the front end and raise the back end, so that paychecks did not go down, but up. in the aggregate, main street is on the chopping block.
4. there is no 0% tax rate bracket any longer. this is unprecedented. i don't even know what they hope to gain from people that make $10,000 / yr. it will push them to get onto public assistance, which will be more than they could ever hope to contribute in income taxes. its a shot to the groin area, in my opinion.
This tiny bit of news is just one piece in a very large puzzle. we cannot concentrate on this one piece and make judgments just based on this one pice, but must fit it into the entire tapestry and then make judgments.