Market Currents
January Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K)....
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Friday, February 1, 8:30 AM ETJanuary Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K vs. consensus +160K, 196K previous (revised from 155K). Unemployment rate 7.9% vs. consensus 7.8%, 7.8% previous.
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Only created 157K non payroll jobs...Healthy economy though..
What a joke..
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +161,000 to +247,000, and the change for December was revised from +155,000 to +196,000."
To me it's just another rule they use to maipulate the numbers..Thats all..It carrys no weight with me!!
QE4eva
112.096 mill January 112.961 mill
Then why is gold on the rise today?? Seems the markets are downplaying your analysis..Time will tell..
110.9 Million private in Jan vs 113.3 million in Dec.. That is a big drop. We are treading water after literally $trillions thrown at the economy.
to month has very little predictive value
The employment to population ratio is now flat Y/Y:
http://1.usa.gov/pLdc0Y
..and Not In Labor Force continues to rise:
http://1.usa.gov/11xOOIS
..There is increased support demand (those not working) on the workforce. Additionally, the quality of new jobs seems to be rather weak, with temp and part time accounting for an ever growing number of jobs.
http://bit.ly/VB682B
$Trillions thrown at the economy and this is where we are...treading water in very weak condition.
http://bit.ly/VswUVz
Compared to what it could be, it is lousy (as you agreed to above). Considering what it will do for fiscal and monetary policy to keep transferring wealth my way, its not. It means the wealth transfer will continue. However, we would all be far better off if we had more enlightened fiscal and monetary policies. So its always good to keep in mind what we should have, and not accept a peasant mindset that we should be thankful for whatever the overlords dane to give us.
I care about the millions that are suffering, because if they weren't suffering, I could trade with them and make my standard of living even higher.
If you are OK with their suffering, then that is your loss.
You know the old saying.."Can't teach an old dog new tricks'??
Some just bury their heads in the sand!! Pretty funny..
Differnt world, sure is!! Manipulation more exposed today...
I can hardly see much fundamental improvement, still a long run ahead.
Hopefully with good weathers, they can do it.
P
Wow, now calling for a 4% GDP !!! Thats going out on a big limb....Kindly back it up without insults would be nice..
When the fed last month annouced it might stop QE i soon the markets did a complete 180 within minutes...You really think these markets aren't being fed steroids??
I guess that 2% payroll tax won't have any effect on spending either??
Good Luck with that prediction..
Just playing musical chairs!!
Break it down. How did you get to that number?
In a 2% Ten year world - +4% nominal is pretty good number - my guess is we see closer to 5% this year and unemployment starts to slide
the data tells the story you just have to understand what you are looking at or follow BBro - either one will do.
P
“For the 50 years from 1951 through 2000, U.S. GDP growth averaged 3.3% per year. We can attribute this historical growth to three primary components: 1.4% from population growth, 0.3% from a rising employment rate, and 1.6% from growth of output per person employed (productivity). In the coming 20 years, all three components of growth will be much lower.
Births and fertility rates are declining. Immigration has slowed to a trickle in response to harsh immigration policies and a dimmed growth outlook. For the next two decades, the U.S. population will grow by only 0.7% per year, half the rate of growth witnessed in the late 20th century.
The total employment rate will continue to decline as boomers move from their 50s into their 60s and 70s. Whereas a rising employment rate added 0.3% per year to GDP growth from 1950 through 2000, the demographic effect on the employment ratio will subtract 0.2% for the next two decades. The population will be growing by 0.7% per year, but the employable work force will be growing by only about 0.5% per year.
Productivity growth faces severe headwinds from both demography and fiscal contraction. If the productivity growth of our aging labor force is 0.5%, then future GDP growth will be centered around 1%.”
http://bit.ly/UwGEh6
And then there is Obamacare and Dodd Frank, and if people think they are done with "taxing the rich" they better think again. BB is working hard to get fed notes into the system, but fiscal policy is set to take them out or render them much less effective in bidding up asset prices. As those forces kick in and cause more unemployment, the reaction will be even more intervention. What we are probably looking at is 2013 the S&P reaches 1600 and the 10 year sees 2.30 or maybe 2.50. Then the regulatory costs (taxes) and more expropriation taxes kick in. The extra cost mitigate the subsidies BB is providing by lower rates and higher stock prices, and then earnings don't really justify the prices, and a risk-off mode kicks back in. Then we could see the S&P go back to 1450 and the 10 yr back to 1.50. The question then, will be if BB can produce another risk-on by ramping up QE even more.
The economic data suggest malaise, and fiscal policy is set to add to production costs, thus the big picture suggests headwinds for growth. As such, malaise seems the likely course, with swings between risk-on and risk-off provide trading opportunities as monetary and fiscal policy battle it out over which one will allow Fed notes to stay in the system allowing for assets to be bid up and to create inflation expectations.
Notice the bottoming trend:
http://bit.ly/Xeyry2
Higher bottom each time...and we seem to be approaching that again.
Just ask yourself if you think we are getting a good return for the amount of debt we are piling on. Due to the amount of debt, the Fed can not allow interest rates to rise, we have painted ourselves into a corner.
http://bit.ly/VswJtb
Only 150k jobs created is great news huh, Unemployment tics up is good news for our country ?
Just give it time....this will explode !!
Bunch of lap dogs. No independent thought, no integrity and no loyalty to their profession or the public.
No one is left to ask the intelligent, obvious questions. No one vets the explanations provided by people who have a vested interest in spinning a story line. Everyone suffers as a result.
Thomas Carlyle: "Burke said there were Three Estates in Parliament; but, in the Reporters' Gallery yonder, there sat a Fourth Estate more important far than they all."
Sadly, those who would occupy that Gallery have sold out.
Also, it was during the Reagan-era that I learned that debts/ deficits don't matter.
Don't retard yourself intentionally.