Dec. International Trade: The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services -$38.5B vs....

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youngman442002 Comments (4981)
 
This is a big drop...must be the oil from North Dakota????
8 Feb, 08:48 AM Reply Like

Tom Saga Comments (80)
 
May be it is the oil issue.
It is hard to argue with the statistics,
all indicators show that we will have a positive 2013 year for the S&P500:
http://alturl.com/eqk7s
http://bit.ly/Wn1m7j
8 Feb, 10:33 AM Reply Like

bbro Comments (7847)
 
Say goodbye goes to that pesky negative 4th qtr GDP number
8 Feb, 09:02 AM Reply Like

GaltMachine Comments (924)
 
bbro,

The improvement was mainly due to fall in imports, is that a good thing?

Doesn't that suggest a slowing of end user demand?

http://1.usa.gov/V3Jgq0

The export numbers did look solid.

Thank you.
8 Feb, 09:54 AM Reply Like

bbro Comments (7847)
 
Capital goods and consumer goods imports flat (monthly change) not great but not terrible...55% of drop (net monthly change) in imports is due to less crude oil..which is good....the implication of the net petroleum exports is a long term positive for GDP
8 Feb, 10:09 AM Reply Like

blueice Comments (2479)
 
The trade account has been always beholden to the trade of goo, BBro...
8 Feb, 10:21 AM Reply Like

Papaswamp Comments (2114)
 
Except the bea anticipated this in its initial estimate.

While the drop in the deficit was much larger than the consensus expected, it was not far off from what the BEA assumed in the fourth quarter advance GDP data. The BEA anticipated that, excluding nonmonetary gold, the trade balance would fall to roughly -$40.0 bln. According to the actual data, the trade deficit excluding gold dropped to $41.0 bln. That means the huge “surprise” in the trade data will not result in an upward revision to fourth quarter GDP and may actually contribute more to the contraction."

"It is likely that it was due to the week-long strike in the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports that occurred after Thanksgiving. That delayed some shipments that normally would have been made in December into January."

Read more: http://bit.ly/UKpVwn
8 Feb, 11:16 AM Reply Like

anonymous#12 Comments (553)
 
I agree, good number overall.
8 Feb, 01:56 PM Reply Like

bobdark Comments (155)
 
8 billion dollar adjustment versus a 16 trillion annual GDP is than .005%. This maybe pushes GDP back to +.01% prorated quarterly, that's it. The fall in imports implies that other numbers may get revised down, so I wouldn't bet on a positive GDP on the next released revision.
8 Feb, 10:00 AM Reply Like

Teutonic Knight Comments (1871)
 
I read this to mean to things: the dollar had weakened, and consumers are buying less imports.

Typical signs of an impending recession, consistent with the -0.1% drop in GDP in the last quarter. Another confirmation.
8 Feb, 10:03 AM Reply Like

jhooper Comments (4673)
 
A narrower than expected trade deficit was driven by impressive petroleum export growth and a growing domestic oil industry. Fourth-quarter GDP was reported down 0.1% last week. But with a much smaller trade deficit, there will be a pronounced upward revision unless inventories are very, very weak.
8 Feb, 10:23 AM Reply Like

Dave Dunbar Comments (43)
 
I'm guessing a lower import deficit is because the dollar is weak, so we are importing less, travelling overseas less. I also read that China's currency has been floating higher so that means what we do import is more expensive, all contributing to a lower trade deficit.

Don't see why there is anything to cheer about, or justify dow 14,000 plus. After all, when the trade deficits were much higher, most pundits dismissed them saying they did not have much of a drag on the economy, and therefore no effect on the stock markets. But here we are parading this number around as if it was Miss Universe or something.

I'd say you can't have it both ways, but I have learned from reading SA that there is always someone taking an arbitrary number and hyping it up so that it is supposed look like a win-win no matter how dismal the number may actually be.
8 Feb, 11:25 AM Reply Like

pollyserial Comments (896)
 
algo see algo run
8 Feb, 12:33 PM Reply Like

Whitehawk Comments (2800)
 
This is a marginal drop. Look at the data. Export growth has slowed YoY, 2009/10, 10/11, 11/12.
8 Feb, 11:29 AM Reply Like

pollyserial Comments (896)
 
I love how US < - > China bilateral trade numbers got better in both directions. Apparently international disagreement about the true state of reality is at an all-time high.
8 Feb, 12:12 PM Reply Like

jhooper Comments (4673)
 
http://on.mktw.net/VLdQY2
8 Feb, 03:55 PM Reply Like

Petrarch Comments (365)
 
More exports = global growth
Less imports = artefact due to transport issues
Petroleum = long run positive trend - less used and more supplied

Good numbers = portend of healthier golbal economy
When US production tops 10mm bpd US dollar = petro currency

P
9 Feb, 12:44 PM Reply Like