Market Currents

Soaring optimism from investment newsletter writers means losses ahead for stocks, writes Jason...

Friday, February 8, 10:11 AM ET
Soaring optimism from investment newsletter writers means losses ahead for stocks, writes Jason Goepfert. Going back to 2000, there have been 9 other times when sentiment rose to these levels, he says, and in each of those cases the S&P was lower a month later, with the median loss 3.1%. In 8 out of 9 cases, the S&P was lower 6 months later, with the median loss 4.25%.

This Market Current was sent to 22,597 people who get email alerts on SPY.

Get email alerts on SPY »

Share this Market Current

Short URL:

Track new comments on this story

This news story has 3 comments:

willisg Comment (1)

Does anybody know the correlation among sentiment sources: newsletters. pro investors, individual investors?

8 Feb, 11:12 AM Reply Like

Ray - Kitchener Comments (70)

Pros and Insiders are selling, and retail are buying. Classic case of Pump & Dump. Every time the market starts to slide, Uncle Ben gets his banking cronies to buy. When everyone is greedy (newsletters), time to be fearful. For the record, I am long Oil (since Dec), just bought Gold miners, and bought the VIX as a hedge. As soon as the last Joe steps off the platform, we should see a move lower, until the printing presses start again.

8 Feb, 11:40 AM Reply Like

Anonymous 2 Comments (214)

In terms of Optimism Level Measurements from investment news letters, what were month/year equity market benchmark levels at during which the sentiment registered their lowest levels? and,of course, what their levels one, 3, 6 and 12 months later.
A spreadsheet showing such might be of interest if it also includes
some of the ETFs representing various Equity sectors.
Obviously, insider buy/selling levels should be in this spreadsheet.
The "printing presses" - referenced in the above comment by Ray - should include both bullish and bearish the "printing presses" of investment newsletters.

8 Feb, 12:42 PM Reply Like

LATEST|

TODAY SO FAR|

YESTERDAY

Other date

DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)