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More on BlackBerry (BBRY -6.8%): Deutsche's Brian Modoff is questioning early reports (from...
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Friday, February 15, 2:50 PM ETMore on BlackBerry (BBRY -6.8%): Deutsche's Brian Modoff is questioning early reports (from Thorsten Heins and others) of strong Z10 demand in the U.K. and Canada. Deutsche's survey of 60 stores in the countries found no sellouts in the U.K., and that those in Canada were attributed by reps to limited supplies. Meanwhile, Detwiler Fenton notes in its report Samsung "has been poaching key engineers and managers" from BlackBerry as it ramps its enterprise efforts. (earlier)
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This news story has 70 comments:
you're either misinformed or a liar
Phones4u spokesperson Scott Hooton commented very positively on the launch.
"As Phones 4u is currently the only place people can get their hands on the BlackBerry Z10 in white, it has been a huge success and continues to sell extremely well. A large number of our stores did sell out of the white model on launch weekend, but because we knew demand was so high and we didn't want anyone to miss out on getting one, we replenished stock within hours."
I wouldn't be surprised if Thorsten lies to pump up their image, they sorely need it after Alicia Keys (global creative director of RIM) used an iPhone to tweet about BB and lied about it.
http://bit.ly/Z3dSrs
Calling others "liars" speaks volumes about your character. I'm surprised alpha allows posts like yours.
Alicia was caught saying how great her BB was from her iPhone. She then lied claiming her twitter account was hacked only to have a PR rep only to later admit that she hadn't fully transitioned from her iPhone.
The evidence was posted already, my character is doing fine.
$649/activation required - sold out:
http://bit.ly/YkI2pe
All blackberry 10's:
http://bit.ly/VW2vo0
One woman said they were doing almost as well as the iPhone, at least for the first few days. People were being turned away.
-Cheers.
http://bit.ly/tdnpMf
Great resource that came through another article. Take a look at the huge change in short positions in the last few days on BBRY. Clearly the analysts need to come down on BlackBerry in order to justify the volume and strike prices on BBRY shares. Until we see a decline in open interest, I would expect this trend to continue.
A quick check on Vodaphone, Orange and EE indicates supply availability. I question the logic of calling a small sample of stores to get anecdotal evidence, though when a well known analysts with a well known bank makes statements, then it can alter the value of options. Even a check of Ebay sales reveals that unlocked Z10 smartphones can now be had for near $700, when near launch those prices were over a $1000.
As I have stated several times in the past, I do not recommend anyone buy shares of BBRY. There is a massive amount of short interest that remains, and we are two or three quarters away from really knowing what the company is doing on sales volumes, revenues, and profits. Until that time I would expect shares to whipsaw often, depending upon what talking head chatters the most on any given day.
Disclosure: I hold shares in RIMM (BBRY) long and I expect that by late 2014 to early 2015 they will have re-established a viable profit path and sustainable business.
Most of those making negative comments fit one or more of the following:
1. own AAPL and want to talk down competitors
2. have a short position in BBRY
3. have friends with short positions in BBRY
4. are fanboy$ of other brands of electronics
5. lost money in the past on RIMM (BBRY) and have a vendetta against the company succeeding in the future
6. are trolls fishing for reactions
http://bit.ly/YdoQYr
Just a word of caution. Both investing institutions and CEOs alike have lied and/or manipulated numbers in the past to favor their position. Due diligence is necessary when engaging in an investment.
-Cheers.
BB10 only needs to sell 1/10th the volume of iPhones to achieve significant results as it is a much smaller company. And the buzz so far certainly support 1/10th. They may not have enough to overtake Apple, but that's not required in order to achieve amazing financial results this year.
I suggest crunching the numbers yourself, but an article will be coming on this topic over the weekend.
But regardless, the conclusion doesn't change. Service revenue was about $50/year per BB7 users, so even if you assume $0 service from BB10, the higher ASP more than offsets it based on 2-3 year upgrade cycles.
Upgrade cycles are a different matter, and the company has indicated in the past that end users on their network were still using a very large proportion of earlier devices. Some conversion of those older device existing users would allow for replacement sales. Using BB7 device sales as a guide, new users made up less than 10% of new device purchase volumes. There is also an issue of upgrade charges from carriers in the US, for users still on a two year contract. I would expect BB10 sales to total over 40 million units by mid 2014 world-wide.
Some analysts argued either for BlackBerry to adopt Android, or for the company to be split up. Splitting the company would have helped their competitors. Other than Samsung, BlackBerry should be able to sell more BB10 devices and any other Android device maker. Compared to Windows phone, it appears that even "obsolete" BB7 outsold any individual Windows phone vendor. So when analysts in the past have stated BlackBerry needed a more modern touchscreen smartphone, and now they finally have that device, why do they continue to play down the numbers below sales volume of BB7 devices? I think it is a very good thing that analysts don't run companies.
End users have some concerns about the changes. If carriers decide to not offer BIS with the Z10, or not honor existing BIS contracts on upgrades, then BIS dies slowly as devices reach end of contract. Some end users are concerned that the carriers are not efficient with e-mail delivery and that a switch to carrier support will mean delays getting e-mails. Another concern is that with BIS there is data compression, allowing a lower volume of data per transmission, but when data depends only upon the carrier, then the data fees and usage go up (other than unlimited data contracts). The two old advantages of BIS were data compression and fast message delivery. The only advantage of not having BIS would be if BlackBerry servers went down, then the carrier network can still provide all data, though carriers are not 100% reliable either.
So if carriers in the United States do not support BIS, then data costs and upgrade changes may restrict some upgrades, or hold back potential buyers. The other issue in this is that the carriers could negatively impact sales, because they are more concerned with monthly fees than with initial sales. Upgrade policies and viability of older plans will be issues for anyone upgrading.
BlackBerry need new users, though conversion of users with older devices, of conversions of users from other platforms will be important factors. I think we have at least three to five years before the global smartphone market is saturated and becomes a mostly replacement market. The real strategy I hope to see is lowered priced BB10 devices to address some of the markets that are still growing the smartphone user base. Developed markets are becoming less important, other than for headlines.
I disagree with the idea that analysts are bashing one company to prop up another. There is a hint of fan level reporting in the news, especially with some popular blogs that heavily tout anything Apple. I don't think the fund managers look at the news blogs, though they may read the news. Don't forget that the original iPhone was not expected to be successful.
What is heavily being manipulated is options plays. Options volume is massive in BBRY shares at the moment. Unless traders move on to another company, thus reducing options volume, then I would expect volatility to continue. Also, take a look at the chart forming a nice wedge pattern. While I rarely ever make moves on technicals, it will be interesting to watch if BBRY shares make a sharp move soon, either upwards or downwards.
Disclosure: I have a long position in BBRY, though I am not planning any moves until mid 2014 to early 2015
Now they are stuck having to buy back shares they sold and promised to replace. To cover their shortfall they have two choices, run the stock down with rumours to a level where they can buy it back not losing too much, or get into day trading and try to ramp the stock up and down with progressive buy and sell orders.
There are so many 'clever' people getting skinned because they bet wrong, the bile will continue for some time. BBRY is a 12-18 month hold to see how the new products integrate with the BIS and BES community. Though it is off the current map, the PlayBook is strongly integrated into this new cloud-based approach to business. If you want to bet against something, bet against laptops and hard disks.
Since there is soooo much negative interest in this stock, I am sure it is to be successful. I'll just ride the wave. I own 15,700 share. I will keep them "forever". I should have kept my SIRI shares. I could be up 1000%. I expect BBRY to do the same. I bought at $11.18.
Blackberry has faced resistance in the Middle Eastern countries to launch its VoIP services because the telecom carriers receive high roaming tariffs from the voice calls made by the countries’ emigrant populations. The Dubai-based carrier DU and BlackBerry are currently testing VoIP and Internet-based video services and expect to launch it in the near future.
Voice calls are generally charged based on the length of the call and the country receiving the call. However, VoIP calls are offered almost for free once customers have purchased a data plan from a telecom carrier. VoIP is a serious threat to traditional voice calls and according to research firm Ovum the Internet-based service will hurt the telecom industry with $479 billion in lost revenues by 2020.
BlackBerry, which is popular for its BBM (blackberry Messenger) service has almost 60 million active members and provides free and secure instant messaging service. The company has added a video function to its BB10 OS-based device in addition to the already present voice functions.
If the Canadian handset manufacturer receives the nod to launch the services in the oil rich country, then it will gain an edge over its rival Samsung Electronics, Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Nokia Corporation (NOK). Nokia, which offers Microsoft Corporation’s (MSFT) VoIP service Skype Apple’s very own Face Time are blocked in the UAE by the service providers.
Allowing the VoIP service could put the UAE carriers into a disadvantageous position that are already loosing money as customers are looking for other options to overcome high cost voice calls. Therefore, if BBM voice and video services are allowed then the carriers need to come up with an alternative measures to compensate their loss of revenue from international calls.
Historically, UAE has been a popular market for the Waterloo, Canada-based company and retailers in UAE have seen robust demand for its latest BB10-based Z10 smartphones. We believe if BlackBerry indeed receives success in proving VoIP services then it will boost the sales of its latest device, while paving the way for future success in the country.
Some carriers block certain capabilities of devices, such as mobile hotspots. Other carriers only allow certain features to work over WiFi networks. I don't think the barriers to functions are restricted to the middle east markets. More open features may be a selling point of one carrier over another.
Nice post, but it appears to be from Zacks.
Please double quote or include links so readers know what is yours and what is a copy/paste. http://bit.ly/Yyi1Bz
If anybody wants to share with bogus Modoff what you think of his deliberate attempt to manipulate with a bogus coverage - i invite you to brian.modoff@db.com
Why do you call it as a marketing failure? The author has mentioned his personal opinion about the Super Bowl Ad. and everybody has one. I guess you must have watched their Keep Moving Ad. I found it pretty interesting. BTW: I also thought that the Super Bowl Ad. was good and actually mocked the fact that they could hardly do justice to Blackberry Z10's capabilities in those 30 seconds - which I thought was very honest.
Don't under estimate the power of these celebrities to reach out to their base. Obama is a standing example of what grass root movement can achieve.
http://on.nfl.com/XaEoOh
Also when we are told that a certain product can't do certain things we automatically say to ourselves that doesn't matter because it can do most everything else. I.E. Z10