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"The chatter about Apple’s broader television plans has been picking up. And if that...
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Saturday, February 16, 12:14 PM ET"The chatter about Apple’s broader television plans has been picking up. And if that chatter is to believed, something is happening this fall — likely late fall," says Apple (AAPL) uber-fan MG Siegler, who seems to have a source or two in Cupertino. Siegler isn't sure whether a TV or a new set-top will arrive - the most recent rumors suggest the latter - and expects an SDK ahead of a product launch. The comments come shortly after Xbox (MSFT) co-founder Nat Brown bemoaned the Xbox's failure to appeal to small developers the way iOS and Android have.
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Why in the world would Apple jump into a low margin hardware play like TVs? The real money will be made with what your TV can do, and that's software. Further, content doesn't have to be traditional TV programming, ie., sports and movies. It could just as likely (more likely?) be gaming. That fits perfectly with TC's comment about Apple being a software company and PO's recent change to Apple's Income Statement format, wherein software is being highlighted/emphasized.
By unleashing hundreds of independent gaming developers via AppleTV set top box, Apple sells many millions of boxes (which also give you access to a ton of traditional content), but also to a slew (couple hundred thousand) of free and paid games optimized for the digital TV. Remember, you don't have to compile a version of your game for each screen size. iOS is screen size agnostic.
How many of the current crop of iPad games could be recompiled for a games ready AppleTV between June and Christmas, with more powerful games to follow?
Rumor it may be, but of all I've seen in the past 15 years, this one seems the most realistic.
I don't doubt for a moment that he has some sources at the company, though it's possible they have an incomplete picture of what's going on.
I for one believe the risk for Apple is enormous, there is far more downside with failure than upside with success.
the iWatch is a safer and more secure bet.
And while they're at it also through a miniMAC into that little black hockey puck.
And the shareholder meeting (where the dividend increase will be announced) is only six trading days away.
So I bought some calls in the final minutes Friday. No crystal ball. I'm hoping to see $458-60 probed Tuesday morning and then a resumption of the recent uptrend.
Re your worries about the buyback program and dividend increases:
The APPL response to Einhorn stated -- in public with the legal character of "guidance" -- that they have all the cash they think they need to execute their strategic plan, and on top of that have $20-plus billion free cash flow coming in every quarter. This seems to mean they feel free to return that ongoing cash flow to stockholders.
The existing buyback program requires only $35 billion for fulfillment (with $10 of the $45 bln program total now done).
That leaves, across the coming 4 quarters, say $45 billion (to be conservative, working with $20 billion FCF per quarter) in the cookie jar, or $11.25 bln per quarter.
And currently Apple pays out about $2.48 billion per quarter in dividends.
So doubling that dividend would still leave $6 billion or so accruing in the war chest each quarter (assuming that the entire dividend comes out of that $20-some bln FCF figure they referred to in their statement; if not -- ie if the existing $2.48 billion div is already accounted for elsewhere -- then the leftover cash each month after doubling the dividend would be roughly $9 bln).
So there seems room for a big dividend increase that, even so, would allow plenty of room for revenue ups-and-downs.
The other promising thing about the recent statement was the remarkable solicitude expressed for Einhorn's concerns. This marks a revolution in the way Apple deals with shareholders. A good revolution.
So I'm hopeful that the dividend news on Feb 27 will exceed current expectations, which seem to hover in the 20-30% increase zone.
That combined with the event calendar taking speculative shape in the news may well be enough to break the big downtrend.
We'll see. I've no crystal ball, and a small position at the moment that requires only a 1.5% bump from $460 to be happy.
http://bit.ly/15n5yqW
hate to see Apple in the highly competitive, low margin
flat screen TV business. As others have said
most of the money will be in the software and content.
let's see if Google can give the answer to our Anglo-speaking friends.