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BlackBerry (BBRY +3%) is rebounding a bit from last week's bludgeoning in spite of a critical...
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Tuesday, February 19, 12:10 PM ETBlackBerry (BBRY +3%) is rebounding a bit from last week's bludgeoning in spite of a critical note from Canaccord's Mike Walkley. Walkley, who's reiterating a Sell, joins Deutsche in arguing early Z10 sellout were due to limited supplies, and claims follow-up checks indicate "steady but modest sales levels." He's now forecasting just 300K BB10 sales for the Feb. quarter (ed: that seems low even if sales are light, considering channel inventory), down from a prior 1.4M.
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I've been trying to figure this out for a while now....the best (so far) I could come up with is BB sold 15 Million BB Pearls in 2006. I can't verify this but I think the Pearl was one of their top selling phones of all time and it was launched in 2006.
So assuming this is the all-time-best-selling BB, and looking at a flat line for sales (although we know that's never the case as the first months get more sales for a new device), the monthly sales volume would be 15M / 12 = 1.25Million devices per month.
Without going to a lot of math and speculation (i.e. CEO saying the new BB10 launch beat their best ever by 50%), I'd say that if BB sold just 1M new BB10s in the first month and will continue at this rate - 12 million devices in the first year - this stock will be a BIG winner.
Anyone care to offer their interpretation/comments?
But the number is based on region, and not world wide.
word from Waterloo is that the Z10 is selling beyond their expectations. That's a great sign.
And in 2006 North America was prime territory for BBRY so I think that could be viewed as highly relevant for comparison sake with BB10 sales?
The real story will emerge as launch normalizes in the US. imo
Also, he doesn't seem like the type who wants to add to the speculation in the stock, preferring to let the numbers speak for themselves.
Period.
"if you are Long or Short on this stock and you haven't actually picked up a Z10 to see what all the fuss is about then I highly suggest you fork over the grand and buy one on ebay because..."
You're joking right?
you don't invest on the product though, you invest on the potential.
I've never drilled an oilwell doesn't mean I wont invest in an Oil company.
I've never had a royal bank account. doesn't mean they aren't a good stock in my portfolio.
Those who want to ARGUE on the merits of BB10 and BlackBerry10s demise or growth should pickup a BlackBerry10 device and see how it really is. but to invest there is ample data available by both bear and bull sources to make a investment decision without owning the product.
Investors here on SA have been arguing the merits of BB's future back and forth for months now and very few have actually tried their new OS. Once they do the skeptics will be wooed. It is going to take time to dispel old stereotypes and prejudices that most people have towards the company but in time BB will prevail as the platform for the next decade. IMO
I invest in a lot of stocks, and as Stephen correctly points out, one need not purchase or test-drive each one to make decisions.
One thing to keep in mind is that I may bet against something even if it's a stellar device based on news, sentiment, and momentum.
Conversely I also bet on things that are generally dismissed as a non-starter like Nokia.
I was a huge bear on $AAPL from $600-$700; not because it was a poor device, but because I saw that the very thing that made them special in the first place was no longer uniquely theirs.
(IMHO BlackBerry shares this characteristic.)
I do not hate the BB10, to the contrary, I like the device and went long at one point. But I see a disconnect from what the fans *think* about the device and what I believe to be *true* about the device. As long as i'm right on this point, there is a potential investment there.
I respectfully disagree. The key data right now is whether the BB10 is really selling as HOT as some bulls think. However, neither bulls or bears have definitive data on this and their outlooks are 180 degrees opposite each other.
So who do you believe? no one at this point. (i.e. "there is NO ample data available from both bears and bulls")
Getting the product in your hands is one way (assuming your'e savvy enough in understanding technology) to get a sense of it's appeal.
The first iPhone, and the iPhone3G were both ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE products, If I were to base investing on the product and not the potential then look at the dollar values that would have been missed out on.
Picking up a BlackBerry10 device you know NOTHING about BES10 from it, you know nothing about how BBRY is going to monetize its services.
The Sell through information is why investing is a gamble, who do you believe? well you believe the people you trust, based on accuracy of past predictions, if their views have coincided with yours in the past.
OR if you've done your own checks.
I've spoken with 21 Rogers Locations, and 18 Bell locations since BlackBerry10 launch in a few population dense areas, and then a few rural areas. of the Rogers locations 5 of them I've spoke with more than 3 times.
so I lean toward to Bullish reports on sell throughs because of the mostly positive responses I get when I do call arounds and drop ins. But I like doing my own research in addition to reading both sides of the argument
Sold 15 in 5 days
No comment
mike
Also it can only get better as the new product launches take hold in the market. It is key though to note that BB is still supporting its legacy products notably in Japan for example.
So I don't understand really what units Canaccord is referring to...is it their estimate of the new product or is it new and old and that is all you get folks. Because if this is their figure for all bb units shipped then there was a huge and unreasonable in my mind drop off. Does this make sense? Canaccords stats don't provide context or perspective but yes they are attention getting.
If you give 10,000 locations 10 devices and 9,000 of those locations sell out, and have back orders, is that better than giving
1000 locations 100 devices and having zero sell outs?
The Apple launch has historically been limited locations with lots of product supplied to those locations,
BlackBerry launches have always been LOTS of locations with lower supplies
I'm a fan of the BlackBerry distribution model as you get more sales people on the floor and can get more eyes on demo units,
Except Apple stores are brilliantly laid out and something BlackBerry could learn from, as Microsoft is having the specialty store drives up demand for a product
Cannacord is closing offices why ? that's simple Canadians have no faith in supporting what they seem to be trying to accomplish what ever that might be.
They are just after free press probably to save on marketing costs maybe that's the only thing that would add to their bottom line.
Canaccord closes half its offices
Financial firm will have 16 locations and 180 advisory teams left
The Canadian Press
Wealth management firm Canaccord Financial Inc. is closing 16 branches across the country and reducing the number of advisers at the remaining Canadian locations, which will be concentrated in major cities.
The move will cut the number of Canaccord offices by half, with 16 remaining. It wasn't clear how many people are affected.
The company, which has its corporate head office in Vancouver but announced the downsizing from Toronto, will record $11.5 million of charges in its fiscal second quarter report — reflecting the cost of severance and office closures.
[Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette asserts in a research note – one of a flurry of cautious comments from the Street over the last several days.
“We believe the Street has gotten ahead of the potential reality for BB10 shipments,” he writes. “There is no line of sight to profitability; we remain sellers of BBRY.”] http://onforb.es/UJeow1
Consumers Feb/report
February 20, 2013 Niko Giannopoulos News 14 Comments
Dont Believe Everything You Hear; BlackBerry Z10 Sales Are Going Strong
A report surfaced today in which Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley slashed his estimates for the current quarter to 300,000 units sold. His firm had originally predicted 1.75 million units to be sold but after checking with retailers he found limited supply and demand which forced him to re do his numbers.
What is strange to me is the timing and the fact of how erroneous that statement is. This piece of “news” actually has affected the stock negatively. According to our checks BlackBerry has sold out in many countries including the United Emirates. Pre-orders in Saudi Arabia are extremely high and most of the United Kingdom was sold out on day 1. Canada has seen a large volume of sales and some people are still on a wait list for Rogers. Also keep in mind the device is constantly being introduced to more markets.
It’s sad to see how easy is for people to short the stock and make a quick buck. To make things worse, news outlets are reporting on this information with out any checks of their own.
Don’t let them get you down #TeamBlackBerry. The new platform and devices are off to a fast start with only good news to look forward to. And unlike Mr. Michael Walkley I backed my editorial with actual facts.
Read more: http://bit.ly/12OaN3q