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There's a 90% chance BB10 flops and BlackBerry (BBRY -3.7%) shares go to $7, argues MKM's...
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Friday, February 22, 10:58 AM ETThere's a 90% chance BB10 flops and BlackBerry (BBRY -3.7%) shares go to $7, argues MKM's Michael Genovese, who is cutting the smartphone vendor to Sell. Genovese claims less than 10% of the most popular Android apps, and less than 5% of the most popular iPhone apps, are available on BB10. He also thinks U.K. Z10 momentum has stalled, and that carrier checks "suggest unwillingness to carry heavy BB10 inventory." Several other firms have also issued critical notes on BlackBerry over the last 7 days (I, II, III, IV); shares -15% since the BB10 launch event.
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I think that BB is doing us a favour by not bringing over a lot of the garbage.
I am wondering if they were aware that aps can be ported to the BB10 if there is a demand for them. I mean, are they completely ignorant about how aps are made available to new platforms? And when? What will they whinge about when a million aps are avaialble on a BB10? That it too too long?
I have seen several mentions of Forbes being strongly negative on BB10 no matter what the circumstances. It is interesting to me that I have never heard a report about Forbes discussing the 120m shares that are being shorted and that those managers of same are getting skinned and might, just might, be trying to drive the stock down with bone-headed press in order to limit their losses before the US launch. CNBC won't touch the BBRY stock manipulation issue, instead dishing out the usual pro-Apple and anti-BBRY comments.
It seems lack of balance and perspicacity rules the world of financial blogs. The products of BlackBerry are business and enterprise management tools, not mini-PlayStations. So what if only 10% of the horse-crap Android aps are available (already) on a BB10? Any employee of mine who has time to load and play hundreds of games on their business phone will probably get a small bonus for reasons of poor productivity.
1. "Any employee of mine who has time to load and play hundreds of games on their business phone will probably get a small bonus for reasons of poor productivity."
This is a funny and convenient justification that nobody but BlackBerry longs will buy.
P.S. And what happened to the story that BlackBerry has a business mode and a user mode?
2. "The Forbes article leans heavily on the idea that the number of Android aps already available on BB10 is small, three weeks after launch. Really? Gee."
Some of this disappointment stems from the fact that BlackBerry decided against some sort of compatibility layer to support legacy apps. In fairness, I do understand the technical challenges here, but it is still a problem for anyone with a horde of now useless apps.
Imagine if Apple broke compatibility with all previous apps with their next new phone release and used the excuse "Oh, but it's a new OS..." $AAPL would get absolutely creamed in the stock market.
3. "I am wondering if they were aware that aps can be ported to the BB10 if there is a demand for them."
Of course this is realized. But we can't judge the BlackBerry on pure potential, sometimes we need to judge the reality of the product today since that's in fact what the customer will take home with them.
"“Moving away from BlackBerry meant we could give smartphones to more people because there were no more monthly licence fees to pay, or any increased monthly subscriptions,” explains Mr Lyford. “With yearly savings of approximately £14,400, we are now able to drastically increase the number of email-capable phones in use.”
Nokia Lumia with Windows Phone was the solution for better syncing, better security and an intuitive interface. “They love the new Lumia devices because they’re smart, quick and have great functionality,” says Mr Lyford." http://seekingalpha.co...
MR. Michael Genovese rejects the facts the Z10 is selling well, just came out, it's starting to penetrate the globe, and continues with strong momentum backed by strong supportive reviews by people that actually used the phone.
I don't get why every single little news related BlackBerry situation needs to be painted with a doom scenario. Why are some so against competition, new technological advancements and new fresh innovation(s), something BlackBerry finally came out with?
" I don't see the help they provide to anyone that is long. "
Of course not.
It's worth noting however that short and long positions are simply different sides of the same coin.
It's not about love/hate or even right/wrong, it's about profit/loss.
statements like "less than 10% of the most popular Android apps, and less than 5% of the most popular iPhone apps, are available on BB10." is no more damaging to investors that saying " bbry will bounce back accordingly" or "BB10 is the best OS, bar none, hands down."
It all depends on your "investment" perspective.
I guess what I find surprising is the emotional attachment many longs attach to a stock. It is this emotion which will often blind one to the realities whereby working against the often forgotten goal of making money.
Disclaimer: long $BBRY puts, long $NOK
Facebook who own Instagram jumped into bed with Microsoft who created the Windows 8 operating system for mobile phones. Result seems to be (I could be wrong) a sudden change of heart regarding making Instagram available for the Z10 which will now have to use the Android ported version.
Google withdrew support from Blackberry phones for Google Sync (Calendars and Contacts) and then for Gmail. It moved to CalDAV
which would have been fine for Z10 users until it started actively blocking the Z10. (I have this from an extremely reliable source).
What are both of these massive companies worrying about. Microsoft invested $1 billion in Nokia who are the main manufacturer of Windows 8 phones and Google has tight partnerships with Samsung (the largest seller of Android phones and tablets) and owns Motorola.
When two of the rival companies seem to be running in fear from a competitor with less than 80,000,000 users they have to be worried.
Form your own conclusions.
The_C_Man you are right, there is nothing to fear but fear it self.
Blackberry will succeed bar none. I think the reason for all the negative articles are the investors short share holdings. I for one is long.
The one comment I read is, that CEO of Blackberry Thorsten Heins
is a master of guerrilla marketing, and so far is doing a good job in keeping everybody guessing. He will reveal the sales news, when he feel it's time and not before. Time will tell if he is right.
Unfortunately you won't be able to do that on the Z10 as Google Maps can't be installed.
I was one of the first 250 to get one from Phones4U but you would not have seen me as I did it on line and managed to get a 64 gig Playbook thrown in.
These analysts are utterly corrupt and openly trying to manipulate the stock price with these bogus reports.
Hey SA, how about checking the credibility of your sources before publishing their lies. Or are you only capable of copying and pasting artciles now?
1/ Apps...ha ha ...(70000 apps is not enough for a Phone user)
2/ On the brink of collapse...(Guess almost 3 billion and no debt is earth shattering)
3/ i-phone are as secure...( Bahhhha)
4/ Jimmy's Hardware etc. drpped all their BB s for i-phone....(That 1200 phones were dropped by Jimmy is hardly earth shattering)
So from now on we don't need to define the argument ....we just need to say ..."Oh Yeah...#1...Ha hah Hah...or this article says #1+ #3....Ha!
Or and Shorts ....don't forget to bring out articles from a year or so ago for your in depth reporting of "Objective Truth".
Looking to sell very soon( by 3 45 pm) the next week 12.5 put for 25 cents and the 15 call for about 12 cents.
Sure you can sideload but what percentage of people will actually do that?
To much enecdtoal info. Bb10 is going to have 10% market share in UK and Canada by years end.
now that's what I'm hoping to hear coming from Japan when/if BB and SONY partner up!
Judging by the rather low volumes of BB/BBRY the last week (below 50% of daily avg), I'd say people have wisened up and are holding for the US launch when the share price will go up.
I was under the impression most shortsellers struck at $12 but now I'm hearing some shorted even lower (around $9). If you tell your boss you'd make a quick 3-4 million but instead put them in a position of owing a few million on buyback, I'd be sweating for my job too. Even if it remains in the high 13s, these guys are out between 10-40%.
Best to just ignore all negative news for now. Its probably just the same stuff from a different analyst anyway.
Writer yesterday put it best, "the shorts are throwing everything including the kitchen sink" in a panic attempt of deflating the price.
Investors should try not to get too worked up about the sales rumors that have been flying around Wall Street. First, there is no way to judge the accuracy of these rumors; we will not know the true level of device shipments until BlackBerry reports earnings next month. Second, the other device BlackBerry has announced -- the Q10 QWERTY keyboard model -- will not go on sale until next quarter. Since the keyboard is a major attraction for BlackBerry's biggest fans, it is likely that many are waiting for the Q10.
The latest rumors
On Wednesday, Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette stated that his checks point to roughly 300,000 BB10 unit shipments in the current quarter, below the consensus of about 1 million units. Furthermore, he expects only 1 million to 1.5 million shipments next quarter, below consensus of 3 million to 4 million. Another bearish analyst, Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity, wrote on Tuesday that BB10 devices are not likely to sell well because they will have the same subsidized price of $199 as Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 5 and Samsung's upcoming Galaxy S IV.
Apple's iPhone and Samsung's Galaxy S and Galaxy Note smartphones are all very strong competitors, but analysts who are solely focused on the competition are missing the point. The smartphone market is massive, and BlackBerry only needs to secure a small niche (perhaps 5% of the market) to justify a much higher share price. With nearly 20 million devoted BlackBerry fans in the U.K., U.S., and Canada, the company is virtually assured of seeing a strong upgrade cycle this year. To remain relevant thereafter, all the company needs to do is convert a small percentage of iPhone and Android users in the next few years.
Timing is not everything
The best way to think of BlackBerry's current strategy is that the Z10 touchscreen phone aims to poach users from the iPhone and various Google Android devices, while the Q10 QWERTY phone aims to keep existing BlackBerry users happy. I am not very worried about reports of slow Z10 sales, primarily because many of the existing users will wait for the Q10. Meanwhile, with the Z10 in stores, BlackBerry can try to raise consumer awareness of the new platform.
The "late" release of the Q10 does not bother me, either. While the Q10 will become available close to the expected launch date of Samsung's Galaxy S4 (and even the rumored iPhone 5S), it addresses a different market, and is thus not really in competition with the Samsung and Apple offerings. Regardless of the exact country/carrier launch timings, I expect BB10 devices to sell well and put BlackBerry back in the black in the coming year.
Like any company going through a major transition, BlackBerry has encountered its fair share of naysayers. But over the next few years, BlackBerry is likely to prove doubters wrong. Even once-untouchable Apple has hit a wave of negativity in recent months, with many prominent investors questioning whether Apple remains a buy.
Whats disturbing is that the stock market came back roaring today and Blackberry was one of the worst stocks in the session.
Everyone that I talk to that has one, says that they love it.
That is a really great sign.
have the effect of lowballing sales expectation. Eventually,
this will give me the short squeeze that i am looking for.
....Netflix 2.0
BB investors, this is downgrade is good news.
But then again, I wish I followed my own advise.
1) I never wrote about (AAPL) in the article, the one directly 3 posts above your comment.
2) So you think (AAPL) stock will rise, too? I'm with ya on that.
And yes, I doubted that (NOK) would be bought, too.
Plus, Canadian laws make a buyout of (BBRY) very hard. Didn't the government say it is not for sale.
Try this:
OM saha navavatu
saha nau bhunaktu
saha viryam karavavahai
tejasvi navadhitam astu
ma vidvishavahai
OM shanti, shanti, shanti
hehe ;-)