Market Currents
If you've been on the sidelines during the market's recent run, don't worry, there's more upside...
-
Friday, March 1, 7:38 PM ETIf you've been on the sidelines during the market's recent run, don't worry, there's more upside to come, says Goldman's Abbie Joseph Cohen. This rally's real, and the fundamentals are there to support it Cohen says. She pegs fair value for the S&P 500 at 1,575 — a 4% premium to yesterday's close. "There are other models, including the Fed model, that show fair value as high as 1,700 or 1,750."
Other date
Latest Macro Articles
This news story has 85 comments:
She also called for 1675 at year-end 2008...roflmao!
Looking back at Romney, his only plan was for wealth to not pay anything over a 10% tax.
Obama is a typical politician - no better and no worse the biggest difference between him and Bush - Bush got along with the other side of the aisle.. Bamster's legacy is that he actually made the US more divided and lowered our standard living as a nation.... two things that weren't done for 20 years, since Clinton's first term. But he's been great for us rich guys.
Also, it may surprise you to learn that the federal deficit has been decreasing since 2009, the last year of the Bush budgets.
http://bit.ly/YInI1u
Lies are still lies even though your amigos like what there hear !
First fact.. Obama did nothing. This is a Federal Reserve Ben B stock market.Even the claims about 750 million/ month job losses at the beginning was due to the SECRET Federal Reserve mega give away of trillions of dollars to almost every listed US company an thousands of companies:Governments and other private enterprises outside the US.
Happily ! As Ben states now.. It is illegal to do it now as Congress stopped that !
NOTE: that amount was actually greater than the TARP:Stimulus,QE 1-2-3 and Twist 1-2 & unending combined !
So, the real reason the economy halted the free fall was the Fed and Obama's stimulus didn't actually get into the publics hands until the end of his 2nd year and most didn't get out until late in the third year about the time that vote buying was needed.
99% of all Americans including SAers don't know that Obama signed an Executive Order stating that Stimulus funds had to go to companies that had union workers. That was why there were not shovel ready projects as Obama jokes about on youtube. (it's there 4 all to see - even now ). So, the only thing shovel ready was his hot air.
Now here is the fact that the Fed's actions have actually done and along with the help of most all other Central Banks. There actions have helped hide the inflation and wealth destruction worldwide.
The US dollars value or buying power has declined 15% since George W Bush's time. So comparing the DOW at 14,000 now in 2013 to the DOW in 2007/8 is like apples to oranges. For today's DOW to equal the latter DOW it need to be 16,000 plus. Fact !
Obama is the modern day Nero ! As he fiddles and buys votes the quality of life in the USA declines fast.. Wait until 2014 when the meat of the HCA kick in. Folks might take to the streets.
Glad I don't live in the USA anymore ..........Got my assets out just in time :>))
The Republic was put on the path to destruction and kick in Wilson & LBJ and actually each guy since him.
And, Bush's two wars ?! Over 2 trillion spent of them yes,but, where did those dollars go ? Oh.. 90%+ went to US defense corporations and other supporting suppliers. The war based economy that has been around since the Revolutionary war.
Where would the slumping US economy be if those two trillion had not been spent.. No worries..The Fed prints trillions and the Treasury buys there own debt. Can you say Ponsi...
Obama's plan to reduce the military and keep America within her shores will alter the economy an military power. China will be the worlds only super power as time goes by..
Maybe the drones will fly over the US and kill the former capitalists.
Then America will sing a different tune.. Then the Reserve will be dropped... 3rd world status will arrive and enjoy.
CNN Money -- side bar
http://cnnmon.ie/WyF1R4
Now Obama gets credit for oil thats been under the ground for eons of years? What is next, give him credit for the warmth that the sun generates?
Facts never fit politics.....
LOL!
So, those who won't or can't admit the US has a spending problem are addicted to Dem t/v talking points.
Big Vlad Putin nailed the US situation when he said " The ignorant gave Obama a second term !"
PS.. And yes, Bush spent like a drunken oil man too.. Conservative ~ Bush.. NOT
I'd give Bush fault for the lowest unemployment, and the safest country. You have to feel sorry for the next pres who has to clean up Obama's mess.
And your spelling!
Here is what I saw. From the end of 1992 to the end of 2000 (Clinton years), the number of jobs increased by 23 million. From the end of 2000 to the end of 2008 (Bush years), the number of jobs increased by 1.8 million. In 2009, still under Bush budget, the number of jobs dropped by 5 million, so you could say that the net LOSS under Bush was 3.2 million jobs.
OK, so you say that in 2001, we had the dot-com bust and we had 9/11 (on Bush's watch, by the way). Bush also cut taxes in 2001, but in 2002, we lost 532,000 jobs. In 2003, we gained 62,000 jobs, so Bush cut taxes again. Alan Greenspan obliged by keeping fed funds rates below 2% and below inflation for almost 3 years, from December 2011 to November 2012. Also, Greenspan did not try restrain sub-prime mortgages, believing that "the market would take care of any problems", and we got the housing bubble. In 2004, 2005, and 2006, we gained an aggregate of 6 million jobs, before the bust took place in 2008 and 2009.
Is this what you mean when you say "Bush's tax cuts kept the country working"?
Source of jobs data:
http://1.usa.gov/oWX1Tp
(type in 2000 instead of 2003 to get data back to 2000)
Also, have you seen this?
http://nyti.ms/105s3Rd
Or this, from Forbes?
http://onforb.es/XGATAQ
Please don't confuse them with facts.
reality has a liberal bias.
The way you used the facts to support you argument is imaginative, but done before. The fact is that most folks were alot happier when they working than they are now taking government handouts. And if the congress listened, the housing crisis could have been averted.
You gonna blame Bush for bailing out the finance industry or you gonna give the credit to Obama?
The fact that Obama is basically executing Bush's policies with more aggression in almost every aspect of his administration may cause you concern.... which is why it really doesn't matter.
Is that you Rush Glenn Laura Hannity Orielly?
George HW Bush came between Reagan and Clinton -- and GHWB raised taxes -- remember?
"""if the congress listened, the housing crisis could have been averted"""
Listened to who? Bush talked about the "ownership society" and how it was good for everyone to own a house. Private industry -- Bear Stearns, Lehman, Goldman Sachs, Merrill, etc -- provided the capital for the sub-prime mortgages doled out by the likes of WaMu, Countrywide, and Golden State, while lobbying congress for deregulation. The sub-prime mortgage business was humming long before Fannie and Freddy jumped in.
"""You gonna blame Bush for bailing out the finance industry or you gonna give the credit to Obama?"""
TARP was signed into law by U.S. President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008. That's a fact, however you want to spin it.
Finally, I'm still waiting for you to provide facts that show how "Bush's tax cuts kept the country working."
Forget G.H.W. Bush or Clinton, concerning that massive housing colapse.. The crisis when you peel the onion back to the middle you see Barney ! Barney Frank ! He was single handedly the reason millions who couldn't afford houses bought.And, with Gov dollars as all those bad loans weres sold the the quazi Gov lenders. He pushed the House as chairman..
For the last bunch of years he's been saying "who me " Not me ! I I I I fought against it.. After the dominoes started falling .. It mushroomed.. The Selling of packages of mortgages was a typical WS idea that seemed a no brainer when they came up with it. But, it was the underlying flaw that eventually surfaced.
Too late.......
I've been posting for a short while now and I see how easy a topic like the market is going higher can turn into a nasty political game of tag... Your guy did it TAG.. No yours did ! Tag your it !
Fortunately, in this great ponsi scheme in your country only the Central Bank matters ! Ala the Fed.. And, when it comes to money it's Ben B who is the most powerful man in the world concerning Stock prices. Not Obama ! He is doing his best to make the US into a part of the EU....
Buena suerte with dat !
PS..Democrat / Republican.... The best resume of any US president in US history was GWH Bush.. He actually did a great job,but, Congress ( controlled by Dem's beat him politically) forced him to raise taxs against his pledge. Almost completely opposite of the situation now. Obama wants a single payer health care system and higher earners to pay 75%.. Bad old days.......
The typical leftwing distortion and misinformation crowd...
My point is that it doesn't matter lib or conservative the polices from admin to admin barely change at all. For example the libs got all upset over the Patriot Act and the dems made it stronger with drones on American soil, and killed a suspected American terrorist and their kid. Bush signs the Tarp and Obama signs on to about all of the Bush tax cuts....
The timing of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 correlates to the data from the labor & statistics site almost perfectly. The other websites you have for data are opinion pieces from the NYT and Forbes (which admits a Left wing bias).
Try to be objective charlie - we are talking money here - I don't think we care a whip about your politics
The US market along with the other major markets in EU ASIA an ME have collectively increased by 10+ trillion dollars since 2008. Sounds great,but, between the Fed an other Central banks there floating almost 8 trillion.
So talking money ? If you call it that. What is the results ? 5 billion average everyday poor folks have seen there lives ratchet down.All while a tiny tiny % of market participants get the fiat wealth.
Ben B Antionette.. let them eat cake NOT.. Let them eat what ever they can beg for !
Why didn't anyone ask her about DOW's "tax shelter" that Goldman organized? It only cost DOW $1B + a 20% fee. No word if GS is going to pay any of this for their part.
"The best of the best on Wall Street" strike again.
Money supply is catching up to the population.
There. Fixed it for you. Though to be honest, I think this still sounds way too gloomy to be something Abbie would say.
Pay attention to the corporate data and capital flows. They will tell an investor which way the wind is blowing.
Spoiler alert: Tobias Levkovich and Abby Joseph Cohen both predicted the S&P 500 would finish at 1675 by year-end 2008.
--Chris Schons
The "Fed model" is a theory of equity valuation that has found broad application in the investment community. The model compares the stock market’s earnings yield (E/P) to the yield on long-term government bonds. In its strongest form the Fed model states that bond and stock market are in equilibrium, and fairly valued, when the one year forward looking earnings yield equals the 10-year Treasury note yield :
I will bottom line it for you.
Earnings yield is about 7% right now.
Ten Year treasury is 2% - but I don't like that number. I prefer to add the CPI - while the Fed does QE to give me an "undistorted 10 year rate". So 2$ becomes 4%.
7% is greater than 4%.
Buy stocks.
Keep buying them until the earnings yield move down to 5% or the 10 year hits 4% (after QE ends) at that point buy bonds.
P
I've seen comparisons between, say, SP 500 dividend yield which is around 2.2% compared to 10 year Treasury yield of 1.8%. So there is a bit room for equity rise as well.
http://bit.ly/WxIoHN
(jk)
While executing their regular business if they do end up making a loss, their friends, the elected politicians are always there to bail them out with tax payers funds and even if that is not sufficient they can always borrow more. The debts taken in the name of the country will have to be borne by the rest of the population in the form of higher taxes and austerity measures.
Long Live Nexus of the rich and the politicians to loot the rest of the population till they wake up, understand the nexus and break it up.
http://bit.ly/X6RPPr
Limbaugh/Beck/Fox listeners are such conscientious patriots.
Nevertheless Ms. Cohen is full of manure.
Anybody forsaking the assessment of the data in favor of making investment decisions based upon investment "celebrities" might as well buy a ticket to Las Vegas. At least, they'll have more fun.
Always your amigo *>)
Yes, you're right, and the Fed is a very real part of the economic landscape, as well. They're just as real as any other phenomenon.
Just remember, that (T)ransactions = (M)oney Supply x (V)elocity. The Fed isn't going to substantially reduce M until they see distinct signs that V is picking up.
That's why lots of M isn't causing inflation. When V picks up, M will be reduced by raising rates. T won't collapses; it will just be the product of a differently weighted multiplicand and multiplier.
You know that I live in Latin America and to see the local currency gain 20% on the dollar makes me wonder..I'm not complaning,but, the billions of saps are getting hurt.
He is buying now evidently. What a fool he is. Better do the opposite.
Clearly - you all know better and are better connected. To be sure
P
BTW, whatever happened to SEC investigating Heinz insider trade?