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"It's a technical mess all over the world," according to chart expert Louise Yamada. She says...
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Tuesday, August 16, 2011, 6:21 PM ET"It's a technical mess all over the world," according to chart expert Louise Yamada. She says virtually all the global markets, with the exception of Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and "a few U.S. markets," have triggered long-term sell signals. Her advice: "Rallies would be best used to lighten some positions."
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Every investor worth their salt uses fundamental analysis because it accurately represents the business underlying that piece of paper you are buying.
It is also too bad that your post proved my point by itself. I would agree that people are irrational. In fact, this is what Ben Graham suggested in his book, 'Security Analysis.' People are irrational and sometimes sell stocks that are irrationally priced based on likely CFs, presenting an opportunity to own that company. One cannot be 100% right on predicting these CFs, but if one applies a margin of safety on his assumptions (thus allowing for appreciation even in the worst of circumstances) you will likely make money.
And unfortunately you will never disprove my point. Look at a large sampling of the most successful money managers. They all use extensive fundamental analysis. Whereas technicians (this seems to include yourself) seemed relegated to Seeking Alpha with their "predictions."
At the end of the day, I will trust the methodology of those like Graham and Buffett rather than that of 'Ripit.'
The best I can gather is this: both technical traders and fundamental investors can be wrong; it's only a matter of who's wrong more often.
I think I do have a soft spot for technical analysis: it starts with the assumption that the Market is usually right (whereas the thesis of a fundamental investor is that Mr. Market can be wrong; very troubling if you put any stock into EMH).
Who said I was purely a technician. I never said I don't find fundamentals useful. That would be silly. About as silly as saying technicals are useless.
By the way, I work at a fund company, one of the largest in the world. Guess what they have? A whole team of technicians. I guess since they only manage over 1 trillion dollars they must not know what they are doing.
Have your mommy tuck you in now. Night night.
You were 15 when I bought gold. Come on, you are going to teach me anything.
Seriously, don't close yourself in. Keep an open mind. There are many ways to make money in the market. Fundamentals are not the only way. You know that. Just believe it and you will do better for yourself.
Size does not equal competence nor expertise - TBTF proved that. Be careful about using that idea as a justification for anything.
The US government could be called the largest financial institution in the world, but few would call it competent :P
The computers are in charge and the only money being made are tenths of cents thousands of times a second.
Any bets that the trade houses report great profits while their customers take the haircuts?
Having said all of that, I do agree that all methods have their flaws. I had to laugh when Apple dropped below 325...all technical geeks claimed Apple was in a bear market. "Apple is done!" "You can forget about buying Apple for months, if not years".....well, two days later it was above 325 and a week or so later was scraping 400.