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Jefferies' Peter Misek cuts his price target on Hold-rated Apple (AAPL) to $420 from $500. He's...

  • Tuesday, March 12, 7:37 AM ET
    Jefferies' Peter Misek cuts his price target on Hold-rated Apple (AAPL) to $420 from $500. He's slashing his revenue numbers and seeing about a 25% chance the company misses Q1 guidance after Jefferies' recent supplier checks. "Historically when handset makers fall out of favor, they fall faster/further than expected." Shares -0.7% premarket.
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This news story has 54 comments:

  •  
    Didn't take long to discover that Misek had a Buy rating and PT of $900 last September - http://bit.ly/16ow9EK.

    How much should we trust an analyst that admits he was wrong by a factor of 50%?
    12 Mar, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  •  
    quite right, these guys opinions and analyses aren't worth the paper they are printed on.

    The job of analysts should be to provide factual information and not try and be too clever
    12 Mar, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  •  
    http://read.bi/ZwOMzu

    The new Galaxy s4 8 core processor 13 megapixel - 5in screen !!!
    12 Mar, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Who cares. It's a cheap plastic phone with a glitchy OS.
    12 Mar, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  •  
    and full of bugs and malware. why would anyone buy a cheap knockoff like the Galaxy. May as well buy one of those "Rolexes" in Times Square. Ironic that they are launching in Times Square.
    12 Mar, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  •  
    "Who cares. It's a cheap plastic phone with a glitchy OS."

    "and full of bugs and malware. why would anyone buy a cheap knockoff like the Galaxy. May as well buy one of those "Rolexes" in Times Square. Ironic that they are launching in Times Square."

    You must like the management at AAPL that doesn't care to learn the competition or see when their moat is deteriorating.

    Jelly Bean isn't glitchy, and the malware issue is overstated. Samsung is making inroads with their "Knox" program to address that in any case.
    12 Mar, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  •  
    think that's bad, look at his predictions on iTV. he had about half a dozen predictions about it last year alone. All extravagantly wrong.

    He said it was in production last march. He said it would issue by last summer, then moved it to fall and then March. He seemed quite confident about this, saying his sources tell him that the iTV was actually in production an ready for roll-out. Then he said it would be later this year, now next year.

    he was on CNBC this morning hawking his recent views. I find it appalling that even pretend-journalists would have this guy on without mentioning his horrendous record. he has been wrong about literally everything, from price targets to supply chain and new product rumors.

    he is the poster boy for analyst-as-contrary indicator.
    12 Mar, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I wonder if Peter is using different sources this time since his last PT worked out so well?
    12 Mar, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Malware is overstated? Really? It ballooned to oveer 55,000 from 5,000 in just the last three months of 2012. Much of it is embedded in apps on Google Play. I would say that it is a HUGE problem that has been understated in the media.
    12 Mar, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Re Keep it Simple Comment 265

    You refer to the Samsung Galaxy: "Who cares. It's a cheap plastic phone with a glitchy OS."

    WELL SAID, but some dumb heads think size is everything - WRONG !
    AND of course if they are into size then they are into PLASTIC!!
    The APPLE iOS software and hardware functionality, eco system and synergy between devises is what makes Apple a delight compared with other manufacturers AND you know that you will get seemless Operating System upgrades with Apple unlike its rival products that do not care about upgrading thier operating systems (OS) for their consumers.

    SAMS BIG AND PLASTIC V APPLE's SMART AND ELEGANT

    No Brainer if you've got a Brain !
    13 Mar, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not to mention why anyone would buy a phone from a convicted felon Korean thief. instead of an American company. Buy American.
    4 Apr, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Buy American? Doesn't work out well for cars. Hyundai has a better B2B warranty and more features for the price than some POS from GM or Chrysler. They also do better on reliability ratings.
    4 Apr, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Peter, I am thinking of a way to sugar coat this as nice as possible but the best I could come up with is ..."YOU ARE NUTS". Not that I don't think that Apple could hit $400 range for a day or so, because I do since I believe that that range is what the hedge funds and value investors are waiting for, actually $385ish on a market down day and then the "Panic Buying" will begin so that's Not why I think you are "nuts", it's because your target price is $420K. Most analysts give a target price over a 6-12 month period and if you believe that a company with a 20% growth rate and a 9% or less PE could only have 6-12 month target price of $420 I must assume you drank all the negative cool aid that's being passed around and respectively say "you're nuts"!!!!
    12 Mar, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  •  
    he is nuts, his I phone probably stopped working.
    12 Mar, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  •  
    "Historically when handset makers fall out of favor, they fall faster/further than expected."

    This guy sounds like a momentum trader more than an analyst. Which way is the wind blowing? Where is everyone running to? Can I join? lol.
    12 Mar, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  •  
    lol yes. Opportunistic ... lets get some trading revenues going into the first quarter which is expected to be weak anyway. Sure if it goes the way of Nokia its expensive. But I think the reality is Apple has a great firm/franchise/brand, it has far more apps in its istore, accessories etc. etc. People will buy apple just for the name and as long as its products are up there with other providers, people will continue to pay a premium. So the price gap is coming in ... big deal. Take revenues down below consensus this year (e.g. -10% yoy), and take margins down a bit and there is still ~100% upside (8% WACC on dcf). Easily +50% in next 12 months as too many have headed for the exit too quickly in recent months.
    12 Mar, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    "when handset makers fall out of favor" what!!!!! are you telling me these kids know the stock is down? My friends boy won't take his tablet to school because it's not an IPad.
    I was in the Apple store Sat. and I couldn't even try out the toys, it was packed. I guess selling 47.5 million I phones last quarter vs 50 million really messed up this company!
    12 Mar, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  •  
    To be fair, Apple does have only the top 2 selling Smartphones. They're clearly in the swansong segment of their lifecycle...
    12 Mar, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Another downgrade and price cut !!! hmmm

    Now thats the kind of job I want, after AAPL reached 419 this great analyst cuts the target to 420. What a genius, must have the higest IQ the human kind have seen
    Now I know everybody is a Billionare in hindsight
    12 Mar, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    yea haha id love that job. getting paid to make random guesses.
    12 Mar, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Wht are we even reading this?
    12 Mar, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Just one of the following will make the stock price surge..a deal with China Mobile, iwatch, iTV, stock split, special dividend, increased dividend, larger screen iphone, cheaper iPhone for emerging market..and more than one event is likley to occur and yes I could not even get in the door in the Kingston (London) store at the weekend. These analysts should have their IQ's downgraded!!
    12 Mar, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Peter Moore, that is a smart comment, and I agree... a split or China Mobil deal would add the most fuel. Companies usually split near the top of their range though, not in the trough.
    12 Mar, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I am just going to remind to this "180 degree change Analyst" that Hai Hon (Foxconn) and TSMC are now hiring 5,000 jobs each to attend higher demand from Apple.
    Its seems his "checks" are not accurate at all!
    He joined the Ed Zabitsky (Apple 270 PT) club. That's 2 members Club only.
    12 Mar, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Wall street plays with this stock too much. They were long now their were short. The funny thing is Apple's books show more money then the US Government and all other ones. By 2015 they will have 300 billion of cash on hand. This company is golden just give them some time.
    12 Mar, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Analysts are herd-following animals. If they don't follow the mainstream opinion, they will be skewered alive when things go against them. But if they do follow and turns out wrong, then the convenient excuse will be - everyone else took the wrong turn too.
    12 Mar, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  •  
    When somebody is down, kick in the stomach. Most of these analyst are useless. Please tell me something that I do not know.
    12 Mar, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Quote from prem watsa
    "And please note, 1.8 billion cell phones are sold worldwide annually, and of the 6 billion cell phones in the world, only 1 billion are smart phones."

    Apple still has lot of room to grow....
    12 Mar, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I think he just downgraded to keep the apple from shooting up quickly...so his buddies could keep buying
    12 Mar, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  •  
    MISEK apologies on CNBC for downgrade being late, (only 6 months late), saying they missed the handset movement to size. What in the world was he doing for the last 6 months?
    12 Mar, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I thought this was interesting:
    From Cult of Mac, Feb 13th:
    It’s been a crazy day of rumors. Rumors about iPhone 5 sales slipping, the iPhone 5S coming out this summer, an Apple TV event in March, an iTV launch in September, and something about the 4.8-inch iPhone 6 being “delayed” until 2014. Busy day… but all of that info came from one guy, Peter Misek. And that guy is basically the Digitimes of analysts when it comes to correctly predicting Apple’s next move.

    As an analyst for Jefferies, Mr. Misek has a long and comical history of making some crazy claims about Apple’s future plans. Who can blame him? It’s his job to predict the future of Apple so investors can make decisions. The problem is a huge amount of his predictions were wrong, especially when it comes to the Apple HDTV, where Misek has (so far) been almost universally off-point.
    Read more at http://bit.ly/14S5Frt
    12 Mar, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  •  
    the interesting thing is, much of this IS wrong and it has led to much of Apple's price decline. Kind of disgusting to give so much power to one stupid guy.
    12 Mar, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Be greedy when others are fearful.
    12 Mar, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm both.
    12 Mar, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  •  
    "the interesting thing is, much of this IS wrong"

    -In other industries that HURTS your credibility. So he just follows the sheep and sets price targets where he will get the most agreement. I can do that...wonder if their hiring....
    12 Mar, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  •  
    trader, he has no power except to the extent a fool believes him.
    12 Mar, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    How could you follow an analyst who predicts a $900/share just 6 months ago and then, analyzing just the phones decides that the real target is $420 target based solely on the size of the screen? Jeffries has lost a considerable amount of credibility in this maneuver... Wake Up!
    12 Mar, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  •  
    It would have been a good call if he put that price target mid september....but bit late to the show now.
    12 Mar, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  •  
    - good is exactly what we need, let's hope his flock is selling the stock -

    may many more follow, all out please and don't come back, go put your money into AMZN or GooGle, just keep doing that buy high, sell low.
    12 Mar, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  •  
    these analyst are downgrading so they buy one more time in low 400's. apple set to go up after dividend increase and stock buyback
    12 Mar, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Why would it go up? Dividend increase and stock buyback don't do anything to address Apples shrinking margins, and until they can do something about that, the stock will continue to flounder, imho.

    http://bit.ly/YYG2Ey

    They need a new game changer, something like...something like....the Galaxy S4!

    UPDATE 4: Samsung's Galaxy S4 dials up Apple pressure
    4:05p ET March 12, 2013 (MarketWatch) UPDATE 4: Samsung's Galaxy S4 dials up Apple pressure

    By Dan Gallagher, MarketWatch

    http://on.mktw.net/15K...
    So Brian White went from $1,111 PT to $888 PT?

    At least he's been consistent. He's always about $500.00 off. lol. Apple is playing catch up to Samsung, and are falling farther behind. A poor earnings report next month and the stock could tank further, like it did last April when it sank 100 points after an earnings BEAT.

    It doesn't look good.

    Rule #1 - limit your losses.
    12 Mar, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  •  
    in case you forgot the recent past, every product that Samdung launched was labelled by media (news and finance alike?) as iPhone killer, iPad killer.

    Is this the new iPhone killer, well in past 3 tries Samdung could not kill iPhone. Every time iPhone came with an upgrade it blew their past records. What samdung can offer is a bigger screen nothing else. People who are addicted to Rolls-Royce would seldom enjoy Kia.

    Whether you like it or not, Apple is the standard and everything else is measured against apple. Since when Samdung set any standards.

    Well let me sum it up, if its not iPhone, its just another phone. iPhone owners are happy with what they get and they do not compare their products to Samdung, its Samdung culture to compare their products to apple and try to prove their superiority. Apple as a corporate and as a apple customer, and share holder, I never compared the products with any of the Samdung products. Did you ever see an ad that Apple compared their products to Samdung. They show what their products can do.
    12 Mar, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I was an iPhone owner and let me tell you I was NOT happy with it. It is so So SO restricting and slow AND basic to use. Try using a grown ups' phone instead of blindly following your American friends. BTW if you really care to look...it is the media that phrased the term "iPhone killer" and in any other country in the world (obviously apart from America) that phrase is not used. Samsung have never even uttered the words. They don't care about AAPL! To Samsung AAPL is just another customer.
    3 Apr, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  •  
    His is really the buy high, sell low strategy. It's pretty fascinating that someone could lower their PT from $800 to $420 in a span of a few months. I read some of his earlier guidance reports and he was extremely bullish even a few months ago - basically saying that Apple could do no wrong. His analysis is erratic and out-of-control, based purely on mostly incorrect speculation. I can't imagine that his clients are happy with these volatile buy high sell low type investing tips they buy from him.
    12 Mar, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  •  
    These guys have always been blowing hot air. We go along with it when times are good. Now, it just feels like more of the con game that Wall Street is.
    12 Mar, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  •  
    It's really amazing to see how analysts start frothing at the mouth when a stock is peaking (see $900, $1000, $1111 AAPL targets last August/September). GOOG is a good example of that now - not that I think its too overpriced now, but $1200 price targets are popping up, which are crazy IMO.

    Future Prediction:
    In 6 months when AAPL is at $520, Peter will come out with this statement: "Due to sightly better then anticipated performance of new lines including the iPad Mini, margins that were slightly better then expected, and anticipated new product releases, we are raising our price target from $420 to $550."

    His poor customers. Hopefully they are not trading on his recs.
    12 Mar, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I do not think Apple is selling that many IPhone5 , but I know that they
    are selling a ton of Iphone4 and Iphone4S. Walked in two malls last weekend ,9 out of 10 phones were Iphone. 8 Iphone4 & 4s. Believe me.Went to AT&T and Verizon, it was the same trend.
    12 Mar, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I agree Bahram - i think what "pundits" are missing when they talk about a low priced iPhone is that AAPL will be able to continue selling the "older" model iPhones at lower and lower prices (free in developed countries with subsidies, now $400-500 in developing countries). As they continue to get leaner in older product manufacturing, they can push the iPhone 4/4s price down to $350 with little retooling. It'll continue to sell long after people are focusing on the iPhone 7....

    Meanwhile, when people talk about "cheap iPhones" some are talking about a $250-350 price point. So, at the high end we are not too far off that with minimal work...

    Just take a look at the iPod lines. They continue to sell and be cash generators until today. I don't know who is buying them, but they're making money for AAPL. And, I think the older iPhone models will be significantly more functional then the older iPods (since the iPod was basically replaced with the iPhone for many as a music device).
    12 Mar, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I listen to analysts,respect them, but at the end of the day I make my
    own educated opinion. Alpha types lead ..not follow....
    12 Mar, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Hurry up apple shut all these knuckleheads up...
    12 Mar, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not gunna happen. AAPL can't and us "knuckheads" won't. AAPL has a terrible name almost all over the world. Except for their home land the company would be way less of a player than it is...emerging markets??? Sorry to tell you...well? No I'm not...they are/will be Android.
    3 Apr, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I can tell one thing, Jefferies' Peter Misek is 100% wrong with $420 target. If Apple comes with bad earning stock will trade in $350. If apple comes with good earning it will trade in $600.

    For now I am loosing my shirt and pant. I hope I do not loose my underwear after earnings. I am old and I do not want to learn about short, naked short terms.
    12 Mar, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  •  
    OOOOkkkkk!? April 4, So... where is the $600/share????
    3 Apr, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  •  
    agree that this guy is a really bad forecaster and his comments made me mad. If anything, we should be buying, the drop has already come. I did hear someone comment that Tim Cook SHOULD be giving stockholders guidance on what the company plans to do with their money (which is our money) Tim is also starting to make me mad as he obviously doesn't care about stockholders or share price. Too little skin in the game, I guess.
    12 Mar, 05:36 PM Reply Like
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