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Tuesday, Apr 16
March Housing Starts: 1.04M vs. 930K forecast, 968K previous (revised from 917K).
March Housing Starts
: 1.04M vs. 930K forecast, 968K previous (revised from 917K).
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The Housing Starts to Nonfarm Payrolls ratio today is .77%...the average ratio for the 1990's was 1.17...the range was .73 to 1.40....the .73
was in January 1991 with a 30 year mortgage rate of 9.64..the 30 year
mortgage rate today is 3.43%
16 Apr, 08:40 AM
What has more net economic "value" (as in total GDP): multi family or single family?
Slight drop in the pace of single family was offset by the surge in multi-family but I am not at all clear what that mix means from a GDP point of view.
16 Apr, 09:33 AM
It's the new housing policy - - If everyone can't own their own home, then nobody can.
16 Apr, 09:57 AM
Single family has greater economic value...in the 90's about 80 to 85% of housing starts were single family..today are averaging around 65%..
I believe the top end for housing starts in this cycle will be in the 1.5 range. Residential Investment has averaged 4.5% of GDP (including the huge outliers from the 2003-2006 era)... the high for Resi /GDP I believe will be in the 4.0 to 4.5 range...we are 2.6% today
16 Apr, 10:07 AM
i used to work in mortgage backed securities and i can tell you that the majority of the economic activity is in Single Family Housing.
16 Apr, 11:53 AM
Its an apartment boom right now...at least in Denver it is...thousands being built
16 Apr, 08:41 AM
If you lost your home to foreclosure it will be years before you can buy again. In the meantime you rent.
16 Apr, 10:00 AM
Those who got out before 2007 will be back by next year.
16 Apr, 03:57 PM
Clearly this is super bearish for the economy.
16 Apr, 01:43 PM
William Shearer, Jr.
This sort of comment from someone long on gold? Thought I'd never see the day...
17 Apr, 03:31 AM
It depends on where your economy is! Our boom/bust (Texas) happened in the 80's; we've learned a few things. Build, build, build, we like to say. Stock picking time again.
16 Apr, 02:29 PM
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