MARKET CURRENTS
real-time news and commentary for investors
MARKET CURRENTS
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Today - Wednesday, May 22, 2013
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11:15 AM Rosetta Resources (ROSE -0.3%) is downgraded to Hold from Buy at Cowen, which thinks significant credit is priced in for vertical drilling potential in Permian assets. The firm's long-term positive view on ROSE is based on focused Eagle Ford development drilling, strong cash flow growth and a conservative balance sheet. Comment!
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10:28 AM BlackBerry (BBRY -0.4%) is downgraded to Underperform at Exane BNP, which says its profit pools are drying up. While news flow around the BB10 likely will remain the primary driver for the shares in the short-term, the firm says BBRY's long-term profitability prospects hinge essentially on the longevity of its service revenues, which are "unsustainable." 8 Comments
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9:40 AM A favorite of value investors, Symetra Financial (SYA) just repurchased about 5% of its float - buying 6.1M shares from an affiliate of Vestar Capital Partners (director Sandy Levy) at $13.43 each. The board boosted the 10M share buyback program by 6M to accommodate the purchase. Book value as of March 31 was $18.32/share. Comment!
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8:23 AM More on the Multiband (MBND) acquisition at $3.25/share: Congrats to SA Pro's Inefficient Market who - less than 24 hours ago and at a price of about $2.30 - told readers he was buying the stock "hand over fist." "In my opinion, Multiband's MDU unit alone is worth more than the entire company's current enterprise value of $82M." Comment!
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8:21 AM Chesapeake Energy (CHK) +1.7% premarket as Susquehanna upgrades the stock to Positive from Neutral, believing CHK should get a boost from both higher oil and gas prices and its new CEO. The firm boosts its valuations for CHK's oil and gas reserves, saying investors have become more comfortable with higher prices; asset sales so far have been of "mixed quality." Comment!
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Tuesday, May 21, 2013
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6:55 PM Why do so many investors believe in a summer rally? On average, in the 116 years since the Dow was created, the Dow gained 5.29% from the end of May through its highest close over the next three months. Before you get too excited, Mark Hulbert calculates that every season of the calendar can boast a rally of similar magnitude - 5.23%. 2 Comments
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12:38 PM Oil States (OIS -0.6%) is downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee after shares jump 30% since Jana Partners disclosed its big stake and suggested turning its worker accommodations business into a REIT. Indeed, OIS shares could be worth $130-$145 with such a change, the firm says, but investors buying shares now are betting on exactly that; Sterne says it isn't yet willing to handicap the potential. Comment!
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11:59 AM Risks surrounding the Chinese-fueled commodity supercycle leave higher, fixed-cost specialty metals and miners vulnerable, so in preparing a list of stocks to buy, BAML seeks companies able to control more of their destiny beyond waiting for improving market conditions. BAML says a rebound in global growth over 12-18 months could spark these favorites: NUE, KALU, SXCP, TMS, RS, ATI, RTI, CNX. Comment!
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10:04 AM SA Pro author Money Investor is even more convinced of his short thesis (see comment thread) on hhgregg (HGG -8.5%) after listening to last night's earnings call (transcript). A focus on various non-standard promotions is a tell of a company grasping at ways to drum up business, he says, and flat-negative same-store sales guidance shows management doesn't see things getting better. Comment!
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Monday, May 20, 2013
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5:35 PM Deutsche Bank remains bullish on oil service stocks (OIH), seeing favorable underlying trends in Q1 as North American margins improved Q/Q despite a decline in the rig count, suggesting significant operating leverage as activity levels recover. DB's four top stocks to buy, all with price targets well in excess of Wall Street consensus: BHI, HAL, NBR, HERO. Comment!
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3:59 PM EV Energy (EVEP +3.2%) is initiated with a Buy rating and $46 price target at Ladenburg Thalmann. Although there have been delays and any potential Utica Shale acreage monetizations this year are likely to be significantly lower than originally expected, the firm still believes EVEP is likely to sell at least 20K net operated acres in the wet gas window of the play in 2013. Comment!
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2:54 PM Tesoro (TSO +4.6%) seems to be benefiting from several favorable analyst notes today, including Barclays' big target price boost to $120 from $92, which the firm says may prove conservative since its calculations did not include any target synergy benefit. UBS and Macquarie also hike their price targets, the latter saying it sees no other U.S. independent refiner posting an equivalent execution track record. 1 Comment
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2:40 PM Real estate site owner Move (MOVE +9.9%) jumps after Citron Research uses less than 140 characters to disclose it's long, argue shares should trade at $17 given the valuations assigned to Zillow (Z) and Trulia (TRLA), and predicts Zillow or InterActiveCorp (IACI) will bid for the company. One big difference between Move and Zillow/Trulia: Move's revenue grew 14% Y/Y in Q1, whereas Zillow and Trulia's respectively grew 71% and 97%. Comment!
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12:50 PM JP Morgan puts out a bullish note on M/I Homes (MHO -0.3%) today, initiating the shares with an Overweight and a $34 price target. The firm says the stock has had an impressive performance in 2012, up 176% versus the universe average of 94%, but has lagged its peers YTD, up only 2% the universe average of 24%. JP thinks that near industry leading order growth of 41% and 33% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, combined with strong operating margin expansion, should give the shares some upside over the near term. Comment!
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12:49 PM Baird's Jayson Noland downgrades NetApp (NTAP -1.8%) to Underperform ahead of tomorrow's FQ4 report, citing share losses to EMC and others. Noland: "We are not advocating a short position ... due to the possibility of a positive investor reaction to opex rationalization or shareholder friendly use of cash ... We do recommend investors take profits." EMC has "outperformed NetApp" in Baird's reseller checks since Q3 '11, something Nolan attributes to the launch of EMC's VNX mid-range systems, more innovative products, and "increased channel friendliness." He also notes NetApp has been slow to roll out all-flash storage systems. Comment!
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12:03 PM Range Resources (RRC +1%) and Rex Energy (REXX +3.5%) are both downgraded (I, II) to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus on valuation and a more cautious outlook on near-term natural gas markets. On RRC, while the firm says the strong set of Marcellus drilling locations, solid execution, and improving financial position warrant its highest premium valuation, it would not be aggressive buyers now. 1 Comment
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11:54 AM Leap Wireless (LEAP -2%) slumps after Deutsche cuts shares to Sell while reiterating its $4 PT. The firm is worried about tougher prepaid competition from T-Mobile (via MetroPCS) and AT&T (via its new Aio prepaid brand), and a relatively high valuation (7.4x 2014E EV/EBITDA vs. 4.7x-7x for peers) in spite of "inferior growth prospects." Barclays launched coverage with an Underweight last Friday. Comment!
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8:47 AM Tesoro's (TSO) price target is raised to a Street-high $120 at Barclays, reflecting the inclusion of the BP Carson, Calif., refinery and associated retail and logistics assets into its 2013-14 earnings estimates. The firm is "impressed by management's well-executed strategy and approach given the difficult regulatory approval process in California." TSO +1.1% premarket. 1 Comment
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8:07 AM It's shaping up as a big day for ING U.S. (VOYA) as a bullish Barron's piece on the undervalued and misunderstood insurer/asset manager combines with BTIG's Mark Palmer initiating with a Buy and $31 price target. "We believe there is a very good reason why ING management expressed dismay" at being forced to sell the unit. Shares +4.3% premarket. Comment!
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Saturday, May 18, 2013
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9:15 AM Leon Cooperman and partner Steve Einhorn keep it simple: Stocks (VTI) are cheap relative to interest rates and inflation. The guy who bought T-bills (SHY) has migrated to T-bonds (TLT), the guy who bought T-bonds has moved to investment grade corporates (LQD), the guy who bought IG is now in high-yield (HYG, JNK), and so on (glasses clink in the FOMC board room). Their largest position is Sprint Nextel (S) - as fans of Masayoshi Son and long-time owners of DISH, the duo like seeing two industry titans both wanting the same asset. New Citigroup (C) management should be able to double ROE over the next 2-3 years, and Transocean (RIG) sells for a significant discount to asset value. 4 Comments
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