MARKET CURRENTS
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MARKET CURRENTS
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Friday, May 17
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8:08 PM Yahoo (YHOO) update: The board will meet Sunday night to decide on a $1.1B all-cash deal for Tumblr, according to AllThingsD. (earlier) 1 Comment
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7:18 PM Yahoo's (YHOO) NYC event will be focused on Flickr updates rather than Tumblr, Bloomberg reports. This, of course, doesn't preclude a Tumblr deal from being announced at some other time. Marissa Mayer reportedly doubled the size of long-neglected Flickr's engineering team last summer, and new Flickr apps have launched to positive reviews. However, Flickr's online photo market share is now well below that of Facebook/Instagram. 2 Comments
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6:50 PM UniPixel (UNXL -26%) crashed today in the absence of major news. Williams Financial's Cody Acree, who rates shares a Buy: "There were a lot of speculative things today, a lot of which probably got blown out of proportion." Among other things, Acree notes a recent Apple patent application for a large-display touch sensor panel (not a competitive threat), and the fact a 13G filed by Goldberg Capital notes the firm's stake in UniPixel has fallen to 5.25% (Acree says this is only due to dilution from the stock offering). Shares still +99% YTD. 17 Comments
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6:35 PM SolarCity's (SCTY +25.7%) big rally is "bubble-like," cautions Raymond James' Pavel Molchanov, who tried to temper enthusiasm about First Solar last month. Molchanov warns a June 11 lockup expiration could "open the floodgates." Credit Suisse also cited the lockup when downgrading shares on Tuesday; the firm estimates the lockup will increase SolarCity's tradable float by 8x-10x. (earlier) 1 Comment
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6:28 PM AOL is reportedly laying off ~3% of Patch's 1,400-strong staff and (per a company memo) is giving the oft-criticized local news unit a new CEO. Patch COO Steve Kalin is the division's new chief; current CEO Jon Brod will return to AOL Ventures. AOL asserts the changes are aimed at improving content quality/engagement and allowing Patch to make good on promises it will be profitable by year's end. comScore estimates Patch, bogged by questions over how well a business focused on "hyper-local" content can scale, saw traffic rise 26% Y/Y in April to 13M monthly uniques. 1 Comment
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6:08 PM Ubiquiti (UBNT) -5.9% AH after filing to sell 7.7M shares on behalf of existing shareholders through a public offering. CEO/NBA owner Robert Pera will be selling 1.7M shares, lowering his stake to 64.4% from 66.4%. Investment firm Summit Partners will be selling 6M, lowering its stake to 10.5% from 17.3%. The filing comes shortly after Ubiquiti closed near its 52-week high, and a week after shares took off in response to a Q1 beat and strong guidance. (S-1) 2 Comments
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5:46 PM QLogic (QLGC) CEO Simon Biddiscombe has resigned from his position, as well as from the company's board, to "pursue other opportunities." CFO Jean Hu has been named interim CEO while a search commences for a replacement. Biddiscombe became CEO in Nov. 2010, after serving as CFO for two years. QLogic has had a rough time during Biddiscombe's tenure, as both the company and archrival Emulex contended with soft storage adapter card demand and competitive pressures. Shares -2.2% AH. Comment!
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5:34 PM Though Google's rally and Apple's plunge have received more headlines, Microsoft (MSFT +2.3%) has rallied this month to levels last seen in '07, and in doing so has let Bill Gates pass Carlos Slim to become (once more) the world's richest man. Shares are up 32% YTD as value investors bet enterprise and cloud services strength will offset PC weakness and slow Windows 8 uptake. Microsoft currently trades at 8.6x FY14E EPS after backing out net cash/investments. 2 Comments
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5:28 PM Accenture (ACN) is acquiring e-commerce/online ad consulting firm Acquity Group (AQ) for $316M, or $13/share, in cash. The price represents an 118% premium to Acquity's close today. Much like Accenture's recent purchases of Fjord and avVenta, the deal is about increasing Accenture's exposure to a burgeoning Web/digital marketing services space, and pitch more comprehensive solutions to CMOs and ad agencies. Accenture notes Acquity brings expertise in popular platforms such as Adobe and hybris. Acquity shares +111% AH to $12.56. Comment!
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5:04 PM GameStop (GME +4.5%) closed with a big gain after NPD reported U.S. physical retail video game sales fell 17% Y/Y in April, better than some feared; they fell 1% in March, and 27% in Feb. Hardware sales fell 42%, as gamers wait for this fall's launches. Total industry physical retail sales fell 25%; as Electronic Arts (EA +0.9%) and Activision's (ATVI +0.5%) latest results show, such sales make up a declining portion of industry revenue. Take-Two's (TTWO +1.9%) Bioshock: Infinite and NBA 2K13 were the month's 3rd and 7th-most popular titles, and Activision's Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 and Skylanders Giants were #4 and #8. Comment!
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4:40 PM Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) says on May 14 it received an additional notification letter from the Listing Qualifications Department of the NASDAQ advising it that, due to its inability to file a 10-Q on a timely basis, and because the company remains delinquent in filing its Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012, the company is not in compliance with NASDAQ Listing Rules. The company has until May 20, 2013 to submit a plan explaining how it expects to regain compliance. Comment!
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4:34 PM iRadio (AAPL) is "still bogged down in licensing talks," music industry sources tell The Verge's Greg Sandoval. In addition to Sony (already reported to have rejected Apple's licensing terms), BMG is said to be holding out for a better deal; one has reportedly been signed with Universal. Apple's interest in offering on-demand options not found on Pandora (P) and other Web radio services has reportedly complicated talks. Past reports stated Apple is aiming for a summer launch. 12 Comments
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4:17 PM More on Yahoo/Tumblr: Forbes' Jeff Bercovici reports talks are "proceeding rapidly and likely to result in an offer" as soon as Marissa Mayer can get board approval. He adds Mayer would prefer an acquisition over some other kind of deal, and is trying to allay Tumblr CEO David Karp's fears of being "absorbed into a behemoth." Tumblr is also said to have held talks with Facebook and Microsoft, but a lockup agreement with Yahoo makes them irrelevant. BI's Nicholas Carlson observes Tumblr sources who were happy to talk with him 3 weeks ago have gone silent. 2 Comments
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4:11 PM DirecTV (DTV) has joined the ranks of companies weighing a bid for Hulu (DIS, NWS, CMCSA), with an eye towards expanding its arsenal of TV Everywhere content, the WSJ reports. The scoop shortly follows a report Time Warner Cable and other MSOs are talking about a possible bid. Comment!
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4:02 PM With Tumblr speculation swirling, Yahoo (YHOO -0.3%) has scheduled a Monday evening NYC press event; CNBC reports Marissa Mayer will speak. Wells Fargo gives an overview of Tumblr's opportunities/risks. The firm notes comScore estimates Tumblr had 115M PC unique visitors in April (+85% Y/Y) and 14.5M mobile visitors (+227%), that engagement is strong, and that Tumblr is targeting $100M+ in 2013 revenue following just $13M in 2012 (ad sales are only starting to ramp). Wells thinks Yahoo could monetize Tumblr the way it did Flickr, but also points out the site has a ton of "provocative and even salacious material" that could deter brands. 2 Comments
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2:55 PM Volatile NII Holdings (NIHD +10%) is soaring after pricing a $700M debt refinancing deal. The Latin American carrier, which originally was looking to raise $500M, will be paying 7.875% on senior notes due Aug. 2019, and intends to use the proceeds to pay back Mexican and Brazilian loans. NII had $5.7B in debt on its balance sheet as of March 30, and $1.9B in cash/investments. 40.7% of the float was shorted as of April 30. (PR) Comment!
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2:28 PM Google's (GOOG +0.1%) sell-side PTs have been surging as shares continue trading above $900 following a torrent of I/O news. The I/O news demonstrates "Google remains one of the most innovative and forward thinking companies of this generation," gushes Topeka, which has raised its PT to $999. Baird's PT is now at $1,025, and Argus' at $1,065. In some respects, the mood resembles that surrounding Apple not too long ago. 14 Comments
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2:15 PM "Intel's culture is blessedly not the culture of a CEO," says the departed Paul Otellini in an in-depth Atlantic piece. Journalist Michael Malone likens Intel's (INTC) culture to that of a giant, regimented, research team (contrasting sharply with many tech firms). "Intel was in many ways a camp for bright young people with unlimited energy and limited perspective ... There was also the belief ... that the organization to which they've attached themselves is the greatest of its kind." It's now up to new CEO Brian Krzanich to leverage that culture to rapidly grow Intel's mobile processor sales in the face of major challenges. Krzanich is already promising a stronger mobile focus. Comment!
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1:48 PM Real Goods Solar (RSOL +105.9%) skyrockets after SA contributor Andy Zelenak makes a bull case, citing the potential of the company's partnership with homebuilder Lennar (LEN) and its PowerOn solar modules. Zelenak notes the Lennar deal allows home buyers to install panels "with no money down at a guaranteed 20% lower-than-grid cost," and that PowerOn modules sell for just $2.33/watt, well below the national average of $4/watt. He also considers its valuation reasonable relative to that of high-flyers such as SolarCity. 2 Comments
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1:38 PM "There's no way" Sprint's (S) attempt to buy Clearwire (CLWR +0.6%) succeeds without a higher bid, says Taran Asset Management's Chris Gleason, one of many institutional Clearwire investors planning to vote against Sprint's $2.97/share offer at Tuesday's meeting. Reuters has uncovered investors holding 31% of Clearwire's public (non-Sprint-owned) shares who oppose the current deal; Sprint needs a majority of public shares to be voted in favor. Clearwire is trading 10% above Sprint's offer price, and 1% below Dish's $3.30/share offer price. (previous) 18 Comments
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1:14 PM Corning (GLW) unveils its Lotus XT substrate glass, which is aimed at high-performance LCD and OLED displays. The successor to Lotus Glass (launched in 2011), Corning asserts Lotus XT offers unmatched pitch variation, which in turn leads to better display yields. The company also declares XT (like the original Lotus Glass) to be well-suited to enabling low-power displays with high resolutions and fast response times. Though not as durable/scratch-resistant as Corning's Gorilla Glass products, which are cover glasses, XT can be paired with them. Comment!
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12:51 PM After barely moving yesterday in response to nearly in-line Q1 results and strong Q2 revenue guidance, Youku (YOKU -9.6%) is falling hard today. The decline comes even though Youku has received two upgrades since the report (from HSBC and Maxim), as well as a bullish coverage launch from BofA. Concerns about mobile monetization could be a factor. On its earnings call, Youku stated mobile daily video views rose 50%+ Q/Q and are now above 170M, that mobile monthly users have topped 100M (PC users are around 400M), and that mobile now makes up ~30% of traffic. However, the company added "mobile monetization this year is relatively modest." 2 Comments
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12:18 PM Marketo's (MKTO) IPO is nearly as good as Tableau's. Shares opened at $20 and are currently moving at $20.24, up 55.7% from an IPO price of $13. That gives the cloud marketing automation software vendor and occasional subject of Salesforce buyout speculation a valuation of $722M, or 12x 2012 sales. (S-1) Comment!
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12:14 PM A revenue miss and light guidance lead Brocade (BRCD -4.2%) to slump. On its earnings call, Brocade guided for FQ3 revenue of $510M-$530M and EPS of $0.11-$0.13, below a consensus of $556M and $0.15. The company partly blames soft storage array sales from OEM partners (IBM, H-P, and Dell appear to be culprits, NetApp could be another). Brocade's storage switch division sales (69% of total) fell 10% Q/Q and 6% Y/Y in FQ2, in spite of growing demand for 16G Fibre Channel switches (Brocade has had a big lead on Cisco (CSCO) here, but Cisco is finally catching up). Ethernet switch division sales -4% Q/Q and +15% Y/Y. Comment!
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11:47 AM MicroVision (MVIS +12.2%) jumps after announcing it has raised $5.85M by selling 2.6M shares and warrants to acquire another 2M shares to investment firm Crede and other buyers. The sale gives MicroVision, which had just $3.8M in cash/investments on its balance sheet as of March 31 (down from $7.3M on Dec. 31), a needed liquidity injection as it continues it efforts to commercialize its PicoP mobile projection tech. Comment!
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11:33 AM U.S. Cellular (USM +5.5%) spikes higher after announcing a $5.75/share special dividend that will be paid on June 25 to shareholders on record as of June 11. The announcement comes as USM states it has closed its $480M deal to transfer spectrum and 420K customers to Sprint. Comment!
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11:27 AM Galaxy S4 sales will top 10M next week (less than a month after launching), says Samsung (SSNLF.PK) co-CEO Shin Jong-kyun. The Galaxy S III took 50 days to crack 10M. Samsung thinks S4 sales could eventually reach 100M, or twice the 50M the S III has seen over its lifetime. Suppliers with decent exposure: RFMD, ANAD, PANL, QCOM, BRCM, SYNA. 2 Comments
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11:14 AM Take this one with a grain of salt: an "industry source" claims Baidu (BIDU +1.6%) has reached a deal to buy Sohu's (SOHU +2.5%) Sogou search unit for $2B-$2.5B in cash and shares of Baidu's iQiyi online video unit. Though Sohu is rallying, the entire company still only has a market cap of $2.4B, indicating investors are as skeptical of this report as they were of Qihoo deal reports. Acquiring Sogou would pose integration challenges for Baidu, and (given Baidu's dominant Chinese search share) could also draw a regulatory response. (previous) Comment!
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11:04 AM SolarCity (SCTY +15.3%) won't take a breather. Shares are blasting off to new post-IPO highs a day after rallying on news of an expanded financing partnership with Goldman. "We hope [the deal] sends a signal that solar is a stable and reliable asset to invest in," CEO Lyndon Rive tells Bloomberg. Meanwhile, some Chinese solar names are up following a rally in Shanghai: YGE +4.1%. LDK +5.1%. SOL +6.1%. JASO +3.5%. CSIQ +2.5%. Comment!
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10:41 AM Tableau's (DATA) IPO is as good as advertised. Shares opened at $47 and are currently at $49.82, up 61% from a raised IPO price of $31. That gives the analytics/data visualization software vendor a valuation of $2.86B, or a whopping 22x 2012 revenue. Rival Qlik (QLIK +4.6%) is up in sympathy - a bullish BMO note might also be helping. (S-1) (Pac Crest) Comment!
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10:25 AM While Aruba crashes thanks to soft July quarter guidance and worries about Cisco's efforts to bundle Wi-Fi hardware in enterprise deals, carrier Wi-Fi rival Ruckus (RKUS +2.6%) is adding to yesterday's Cisco-fueled gains thanks to an upgrade to Buy from Goldman's Simona Jankowski. She notes shares closed yesterday down 41% YTD and 11% from their $15 IPO price thanks to Ruckus' Q1 miss and Q2 guidance, and argues Ruckus' long-term story is intact. Deals with tier-1 carriers such as AT&T and Vodafone are expected, and Ruckus is seen as a "key beneficiary" of efforts to integrate small cell base stations with Wi-Fi access points. Comment!
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10:16 AM Aruba (ARUN -26.8%) is slammed with 9 downgrades after providing light guidance to go with its FQ3 results. Aruba is "likely dealing with a multi-quarter, if not structural, change in its competitive landscape and growth rate," writes Needham, cutting shares to Hold. Wells Fargo, downgrading to Market Perform, notes Cisco (CSCO - 27% Y/Y Wi-Fi growth in FQ3) is extending its efforts to bundle Wi-Fi hardware with other enterprise gear to Europe/Asia, and that Aruba plans to invest more to compete better. Along with the report, Aruba announced it's buying Meridian Apps, a developer of mapping/navigation software for hotels, subways, hospitals, etc. (transcript) Comment!
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9:44 AM Hulu (NWS, DIS, CMCSA) could be even more valuable than people think due its rich user experience and advanced advertising system, reasons BTIG's Rich Greenfield. The analyst isn't convinced a cable industry joint venture would work well, but says he could make the case why almost any large media/tech company (Google?) could use Hulu to position itself in the "rapidly fragmenting" video world. Comment!
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9:35 AM A downgrade to Hold from Maxim's John Tinker leads Pandora (P -0.2%) to open lower, but shares have quickly bounced. Tinker cites valuation, noting Pandora trades near the $17 PT Maxim set back in Aug. '11. He's otherwise positive, noting improved mobile monetization and the fact Pandora support is now built into 95 car models. Piper raised its estimates yesterday. 1 Comment
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9:22 AM Tableau Software (DATA) and Marketo (MKTO) are will begin trading today after pricing their IPOs at levels that indicate strong demand. Tableau, set to become the Street's latest big data/analytics darling, priced its offering at $31, above a prior range (also raised) of $28-$30. The company sold 8.2M shares, up from a prior 7.2M, as insiders used the demand to sell an extra 1M shares. Marketo priced its offering at $13, at the high end of an $11-$13 range. The IPO prices give Tableau a valuation of $1.78B, and Marketo a valuation of $464M. (S-1s: Tableau, Marketo) Comment!
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9:10 AM Leap Wireless (LEAP) -2.5% after Barclays starts coverage with an Underweight and $4 PT as part of a broader coverage launch of U.S. telecom service providers. Tower owners SBA (SBAC) and American Tower (AMT) have been started at Overweight, and so has Verizon (VZ). AT&T (T) and T-Mobile USA (TMUS) have been started at Equal Weight. Comment!
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5:44 AM The British parliament will call Amazon (AMZN) back to testify before the Public Affairs Committee to explain how it justifies paying just $9M in income tax on some $23B in sales to British customers over the past six years, Reuters said Friday, citing lawmakers. The company claims it should only pay tax in Luxembourg as it operates a single business in Europe from there, rather than multiple independent subsidiaries across the region. Reuters suggests this is a mischaracterization. 2 Comments
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