MARKET CURRENTS
real-time news and commentary for investors
MARKET CURRENTS
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Today - Thursday, June 20, 2013
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5:01 AM The British government "will urgently investigate" the case for splitting RBS (RBS) into "good" and "bad" banks, Finance Minister George Osborne said yesterday. The decision will depend on whether the move would support the economy, if it were in the interests of taxpayers, and if it were to speed up RBS's return to private ownership, which is some way off. However, Lloyds (LYG) is in good enough shape for the government to start selling its 39% stake in the bank within months. 1 Comment
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4:47 AM The British banking sector needs to formulate plans to raise a combined £13.4B in order to meet Basle III capital requirements, the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority said today. Banks had a total shortfall of £27.1B at the end of 2012 and have already drawn up programs to raise £13.7B, although some of the proposals need regulatory approval. RBS's (RBS) shortfall was £13.6B, Lloyds' (LYG) was £8.6B and Barclays was £3B. However, the U.K. units of Banco Santander (SAN), HSBC (HBC) and Standard Chartered (SCBFF.PK) were in surplus. (PR) Comment!
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4:26 AM Sony (SNE) CEO Kazuo Kirai told the company's shareholders meeting that it will take its time in considering Daniel Loeb's proposal to partially spin off its successful entertainment division and use the funds to boost its struggling hardware operations. "The entertainment business plays an important role in Sony’s future growth" and so shouldn't be let go. Hirai said. "This proposal strikes at the heart of what kind of company Sony ultimately will become in the future." Comment!
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4:11 AM Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI edged up to a 16-month high of 48.7 in June from 48.3 in May and vs consensus of 48.6; services 48.6 vs 47.2 and 47.5; composite index 48.9 vs 47.7 and 48.1; manufacturing output 48.9 vs 47.7 in May. While business activity contracted, says Markit, "there are reassuring signs that the downturn is continuing to ease" across the eurozone. GDP is likely to have again shrunk in Q2, but "the region could stabilize in the third quarter and return to growth in the fourth quarter." (PR) Comment!
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4:01 AM Forest Laboratories (FRX) is reportedly among several mid-sized pharmaceutical companies that are interested in bidding for Irish drugmaker Elan (ELN). The speculation comes a day after Royalty Pharma gave up in its hostile attempt to acquire Elan for up to $8B. Jefferies analyst Corey Davis says that a deal could help reduce the buyer's tax rate, as Elan is based in Ireland. Comment!
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3:52 AM The mayhem caused by the Fed daring to suggest that it could soon start cutting off the liquidity extends to the European bond markets. Ten-year yields on French bonds +13 bps to 2.24, Germany +11 bps to 1.67%, Italy +18 bps to 4.43%, Portugal +15 bps to 6.22%, Spain +16 bps to 4.69%, U.K. +15 bps to 2.28%. It's worth noting that Japanese 10-year yields are up just 3 bps at 0.84%. 1 Comment
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3:44 AM European shares (FEZ) follow the herd and slide sharply on the Bernanke sell-off and weak Chinese manufacturing activity, with mining firms in particular bearing the brunt. EU Stoxx 50 -1.8%, London -1.2%, Paris -1.8%, Frankfurt -1.9%, Madrid -1.3%, Milan -1%. Comment!
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3:37 AM Flash German Manufacturing PMI 48.7 in in June vs 49.4 in May and consensus of 49.8; services 51.3 vs 49.7 and 50; manufacturing output 50.1 vs 51.1; composite output 50.9 vs 50.2. "The headline PMI signaled growth," says Markit. "However, a look at the other sub-indices paints a worrying picture for the future. The drop off in new business intensified and employment was cut for a second month running." Then there's the effect of the widespread flooding, which hasn't yet shown up in the numbers. (PR) Comment!
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3:30 AM Flash French manufacturing PMI rises to 48.3 in June from 46.4 in May and vs consensus of 47; manufacturing output 48.1 vs 45.2 in May; services 46.5 vs 44.3 and consensus of 44.8; composite output 46.8 vs 44.6 in May. "Conditions remain weak in France, but the latest Flash PMI data offer further evidence that the decline in output has eased," says Markit. The slower fall in activity was broad-based...reflecting less marked reductions in new business." (PR) Comment!
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3:17 AM While the dollar rises following the FOMC's various statements and comments yesterday, commodities (DBC) sell off, with gold -3.3% (GLD) to 1,328.85 per ounce, well below the key support level of $1,349. Silver (SLV) -4.3%, Oil -1.8% (USO), copper -1.6% - also dragged down by the poor Chinese PMI print - palladium -1.6% and natural gas (GAZ) -0.8%. 1 Comment
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3:09 AM The dollar strengthens across the board following the Ben Bernanke Show yesterday. "Bernanke was more explicit than markets had expected. Rising U.S. yields will spur broad dollar buying. The dollar's direction is now set," says Credit Agricole's Yuji Saito. USD-JPY (FXY) +1.1%, USD-EUR +0.3%, USD-GBP (GBB) +0.3%, USD-AUD +0.6%. 2 Comments
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2:43 AM HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI has fallen to a nine-month low of 48.3 in June from 49.2 in May and vs consensus of 49.4; manufacturing output index 48 vs 50.7. "Manufacturing sectors are weighed down by deteriorating external demand, moderating domestic demand and rising de-stocking," says HSBC. Beijing's preference for reform over stimulus will have a limited impact in the short term, so HSBC expects "slightly weaker growth in Q2." (PR) Comment!
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Wednesday, June 19, 2013
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4:15 PM Market recap: The more Bernanke talked, the more stocks fell and Treasury yields rose. While the chairman took pains to indicate the Fed isn't changing policy, the markets clearly see less stimulus ahead, sending the Dow down 200 and pushing 10-year Treasury yields to 15-month highs. High-yielding dividend stocks led decliners, with telecoms and utilities posting respective drops of 2.7% and 2.3%. 18 Comments
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2:41 PM Bernanke press conference: In a change to the Fed's exit policy (if it ever happens), the chairman says a majority on the FOMC expects the Fed will not sell MBS, and will instead let the paper mature or get paid off. He reiterates that the unemployment rate falling to 6.5% will not automatically trigger a rate hike. The Fed could begin tapering asset purchases later this year if its economic forecasts are correct. 4 Comments
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2:06 PM FOMC Economic Projections: 2013 GDP growth estimate is cut a hair to 2.3-2.6% from 2.3-2.8%, but is boosted in 2014 to 3-3.5% from 2.9-3.4%. The unemployment rate forecast for 2013 is trimmed to 7.2-7.3% from 7.3-7.5% and in 2014 to 6.5-6.8% from 6.7-7%. Core CPI expectations are cut to 1.2-1.3% this year from 1.5-1.6% and in 2014 to 1.5-1.8% from 1.7-2%. 14 out of 19 FOMC members see rate hikes beginning in 2015 (4 see hikes before then). 2 Comments
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2:01 PM FOMC Announcement: No changes to the $85B per month in asset purchases and the committee stands ready to increase or decrease the level as necessary. Downside risks to the economy and the labor market have diminished since the fall. 12 Comments
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9:15 AM Market preview: U.S. stock futures remain flat as investors look to be staying well out of the way until Ben Bernanke has his say later today. For those interested in something other than the "will they or won't they" tapering saga, Sprint is -3.4% as its acquisition process heads towards a Japanese endgame, while Adobe jumps 7.3% following earnings and Alcatel-Lucent climbs 4.8% on news of its revamp. Ongoing: Paris Air Show Comment!
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9:06 AM Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) have failed to comply with parts of the $25B national mortgage settlement, according to Joseph Smith, the independent monitor appointed to oversee the process. "We still have work to do on the loan modification process," he says. His findings jibe with anecdotal reports and comes as the NY AG has signalled his intention to sue the banks over violations. 14 Comments
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8:46 AM Paris Air Show: Having just concluded a deal for 175 Boeing (BA) 737-800s, Ryanair (RYAAY) is veering towards choosing the 737 MAX over Airbus' A320neo jet in an order for 200 planes that would be worth $20B at list prices. Boeing has the advantage because of Airbus' backlog and because the MAX will offer 189 seats, nine more than the A320. What Ryanair CEO Michael O'Reilly would really like, though, is a narrow-body jet with 199 seats. 1 Comment
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6:18 AM Paris Air Show: Boeing (BA) has won an order for 30 of its next-generation 737 MAX aircraft from air-leasing firm CIT Group (CIT) in a deal worth $3B at list prices. The plane maker intends to bring the MAX into service in Q3 2017, a quarter earlier than planned, but still somewhat later than the rival Airbus A320neo. Meanwhile, Ryanair (RYAAY) has finalized an order for 175 Boeing 737-800 aircraft worth $15.6B at list prices. Korean Air has agreed to purchase five 747 aircraft and six 777 jets in an agreement valued at $3.6B at list prices. Comment!
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