MARKET CURRENTS
real-time news and commentary for investors
MARKET CURRENTS
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Today - Wednesday, May 22, 2013
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5:47 PM While pundits parse Bernanke and the FOMC minutes, Jon Hilsenrath is advising Fed-watchers to expect less "tapering" talk from now on and more standalone steps to test market reactions and enable flexible follow-up measures: "The Fed effectively wants the markets to experience the same uncertainty it experiences... and it wants to condition the market to avoid jumping to conclusions about what it will do next." Comment!
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3:23 PM Treasury yields continue to climb following the hawkish interpretation of Bernanke and FOMC minutes, the 10-year up 9 bps to 2.02% and within 6 bps of the YTD high of 2.08%. Yields will fluctuate at the long end, but the middle is moving as well, the 5-year up 7 bps to 0.89% - quite a spike for an instrument yielding so little. The IEI - which owns 3-7 year Treasury paper slides 0.3% to just about a 52-week low. The long-term TLT falls 1.4%. 6 Comments
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2:04 PM FOMC Minutes: A "number" on the FOMC favored beginning a tapering of QE as early as June, but the committee as a whole decided more progress on the economy is needed first. A few participants expressed concern inflation is under target and say future price developments must be carefully watched. One member wanted to boost asset purchases, while one wanted tapering to begin immediately. 10 Comments
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10:25 AM More from Bernanke: "Another cost, one that we take very seriously, is the possibility that very low interest rates, if maintained too long, could undermine financial stability ... (however) a premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery." Questioning is about to begin. S&P 500 +0.9%. 4 Comments
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10:03 AM Bernanke Congressional Testimony: Premature tightening risks choking off the economic recovery, says Bernanke in prepared remarks, and the FOMC stands ready to increase or decrease QE as necessary. Watch live here. 11 Comments
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7:42 AM FRBNY Bill Dudley says it will be 3-4 months before the Fed will have a sense of how the economy is responding to fiscal drag and can decide whether to reduce (or expand?) asset purchases. Speaking to Bloomberg, Dudley says the FOMC has yet to get to a point of agreeing on a strategy for cutting back QE. Three-four months? ... Should make Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech an interesting one. 9 Comments
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Tuesday, May 21, 2013
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8:28 PM After five days of deliberation, the Senate Judiciary Committee puts its final stamp of approval on the immigration reform bill, setting up a debate on the Senate floor for early June. Three Republicans and ten Democrats voted to support the bill, which would create a pathway to citizenship for nearly 11M undocumented immigrants, invest billions in new border security measures and overhaul the legal immigration system. 13 Comments
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1:08 PM That QE taper may end up being a QE expansion as FRBNY President Bill Dudley tells a gathering in Japan the uncertain economic outlook has him unsure if the next move will be up or down. He worries about investor over-reaction to a "normalization" of policy and suggests the FOMC may need to update what it needs to see to move in that direction. Stocks like the "up" talk, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%) at a fresh session high. 29 Comments
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12:58 PM The Fed should continue with QE, says St. Louis Fed chief Bullard, as the reaction in financial markets (stocks higher?) proves the purchases have been effective. He says the program should be adjusted (higher or lower) based on incoming economic data. He tosses out negative interest rates as a possible policy (why not), but suggests the effects of such a move would be minor. 4 Comments
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12:43 PM Another driver for the run in U.S. solar stocks today is a big move in Chinese solar stocks overnight, particularly Hareon Solar Technology, which jumped to its 10% daily limit on speculation that the U.S. and China are seeking to resolve a dispute over trade in solar-energy equipment that could lead to soaring tariffs: JA Solar (JASO +5%), China Sunergy (CSUN +5.2%), Ascent Solar (ASTI +32%), Spire (SPIR +9.6%), Trina Solar (TSL +10.3%), Hanwha Solarone (HSOL +11.5%), Suntech Power (STP +20.5%), ReneSola (SOL +8.1%), LDK Solar (LDK +10.3%). 2 Comments
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Monday, May 20, 2013
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7:16 AM Stopping asset purchases at once would be too disruptive, says Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher, appearing on CNBC. The hawk instead calls for the program to be tapered, beginning imminently. "We've made people richer ... the question is what have we done for working men and women in this country." 4 Comments
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Sunday, May 19, 2013
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10:12 PM The latest installment of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, has some observers worried. Citing "increased competition," banks generally reported easing their lending standards on business loans over the last three months, as razor thin margins have created a scramble for C&I business (previous). Concurrently, the amount of business loans extended rose 10% Y/Y to $1.55T, leading some to question whether the combination of more lending and lax underwriting standards might prove hazardous to the system. Competition "creates the temptation to do silly things," M&T vice-chairman Mike Pinto tells FT. 3 Comments
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Saturday, May 18, 2013
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3:34 PM Ben Bernanke may not have overtly mentioned monetary policy during prepared remarks for a commencement address at Bard College Saturday, but he did reference Yogi Berra, and in the process made a statement that those of a cynical persuasion might say could have been pulled not only from the quips of a baseball legend, but from any recent speech by hawkish regional Fed presidents (I, II, III): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Some would undoubtedly say the Chairman should consider this sage advice when making conjectures about the supposedly benign effects of policy tightening. 17 Comments
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Friday, May 17, 2013
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7:18 PM Shares of General Motors (GM +3.1%) eclipsed their $33 IPO price as investors speculate that the U.S. government may soon exit its ownership stake in the auto maker. The auto maker rose to $33.42 to close above its November 2010 IPO price for the first time since February 2011. U.S. taxpayers currently hold a 16.4% stake, or 241.7M shares worth about $8.08B. 4 Comments
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6:44 PM If we keep moving up like this, stocks could go "parabolic," says Art Cashin. The stocks that have the heaviest short positions have already raced ahead of the indices, and they are going to crumble if we keep going. (Video). 35 Comments
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2:59 PM Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) have halted the vast majority of foreclosure sales in numerous states following the release of new standards from the OCC, reports the American Banker. Harkening back to the days of the robo-signing scandal, Wells' foreclosure sales across 5 westerns states dropped to fewer than 10 per day in April from more than 300 previously. JPMorgan (JPM) also slowed sales, but has returned to normal activity. BofA (BAC) is proceeding as usual. 1 Comment
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2:33 PM The Fed hasn't lowered "real" interest rates enough, says Minneapolis Fed chief Kocherlakota, not disappointing his new fans. Somewhat hawkish until a near-religious conversion last year, Kocherlakota is now the most dovish on the FOMC (though not a voter this year) and fond of making statements like that. 14 Comments
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